Bit of an 8ft x 6ft RED - warning flag ....is a-fluttering
New York Times
The first time in recent.... decades
- that total margin debt exceeded... 2.25 percent.... of G.D.P.
- came at the end of 1999, amid..... the technology stock ....bubble.
- Margin debt fell..... after that bubble.... burst,
but
- to rise again during the..... housing boom
- when anecdotal evidence said some investors were using their investments to secure loans that went for down payments on homes.
That boom in ...margin loans ...also....
.... ended badly......
In fact it seems whenever margin debt reaches 2.25% .....the stock market crashes
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/business/economy/shades-of-prerecession-borrowing.html
So are we around the red flag ....2.25%..... historical - crash warning level now
Apparently - Margin debt has now risen to about...... 2.4 percent..... of GDP
May not crash this week, or next week - but it seems "the writing is on the wall" by way of forewarning
(And - in rather - large letters - imo)
By way of a visual warning
- the GREY areas indicate when margin debt - exceeds 2-25%
- The chart after....the Grey areas
- represents the S & P......in the month that follows
Place your bets ??
- NB - the bottom right hand chart is - where we are....now :o)