rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

i think you're quite brave to go short in these markets, as the indices on both sides of the pond look disinclined to fall much and are perhaps getting puff in their lungs for another upward swing

I carried a FTSE bet overnight Cynic so average now 6582 accross two bets. I need 6580 to break even and think there is enough swing to achieve this and possibly make a small profit. Of course this could go against me, but the last 10 days have had flat momentum and upside testing has failed.

By Alen Mattich One of the most astonishing things about the post-crisis world is how well corporate profits have performed, particularly in the U.S., at a time when ordinary people have been struggling on. Ironically, this suggests that as the economy recovers, corporate profits will come under pressure. It also threatens to pose the Federal Reserve with a conundrum if companies try to resist falling earnings by boosting their prices. That firms have done well as people suffered maybe shouldn't be so surprising. Companies sought to defend their earnings by making deep cuts in their labor forces in the wake of the financial crisis. Normally this would have rebounded on them--people without jobs don't have money to spend on things that companies produce. But the government stepped in to make up the shortfall with the biggest peace-time deficits ever. But now those government deficits are winding down and companies have started to rehire and to boost wages, however slowly. So far, this hasn't dented corporate profits too much, but that's because households are digging deeper into their pockets. John Hussman, a fund manager, notes that in the first quarter the government deficit improved by $269 billion but that was offset by a drop in household savings of $349 billion. Eventually, household dissavings will slow, particularly if market interest rates start to pick up with the economy's revival. Wages growth is unlikely to keep up with the pace of government deficit cutting, which suggests corporate margins will finally start to come under pressure. Exceptionally high margins, meanwhile, make high corporate valuations even more vulnerable to correction. Using the Shiller price to 10-year cyclically adjusted earnings ratio, which attempts to smooth out the effect of economic cycles on earnings, U.S. shares are currently on a P/E of 24, some 32% above average post-World War II valuations and 46% above valuations since the start of the series. At a more normal profits relative to revenue ratio, the current Shiller P/E ratio would be 29, according to Mr. Hussman. Bulls point to large cash holdings by non-financial firms. But they've also been ramping up their debts as well. Rising interest rates will prove to be a further squeeze on corporate profits. The upshot is likely to be inflation. With the economy picking up, firms will finally start to feel comfortable about jacking their prices up and as they do, workers will demand more in wages. And that'll be fine--it will imply normalization of the economy and allow the Fed to tighten policy--unless it happens with a relatively high unemployment rates. If that happens, there'll be a policy dilemma. And a dilemma for investors too. This is an opinion column by Alen Mattich, who has been a columnist for Dow Jones for more than a decade.

6616 short again to average 6593.3

6616 closed at 6604.5 for +11.5, now average 6582

6619 short again to average 6594.3

I'm short @6,623.0 which hopefully is it for now.

What are you averaging now Skinny?

I closed previously for -11, the entry was based on R1 @6,594.36 and looked doomed almost immediately - hence my post at the time.

This position is based on the method mentioned yesterday @6,622.17 - Non farms @1:15pm so lets see.

On edit that was -11 not -9.

FTSE 100 2hr chart now below to pick up higher resistance levels.

6619 closed at 6604.5 for +14.5, average 6582

ADP Jul US Private Sector Jobs +200,000

Treasury bonds sold off Wednesday after a private-sector employment report that brightened the outlook for the labor market and raised fears the Federal Reserve would taper bond-buying this quarter. In recent trade, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 14/32 lower in price, yielding 2.658%, according to Tradeweb. Bond prices fall when their yields rise. The yield is approaching a 23-month peak of 2.756% set July 8. The data showed 200,000 jobs were added to the private sector, compared to 183,000 forecast by economists. An improving jobs market raised anxiety that the Federal Reserve may dial back its bond purchases as early as September. Bond yields have jumped sharply since the start of May as fears grew that a major buyer of Treasury bonds may step back. The Fed has been buying $85 billion per month in a combination of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities aiming to hold longer-dated bond yields near historic lows to stimulate consumer and business borrowing. The Federal Open Market Committee is set to wrap up a two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon and is scheduled to release a statement on interest rates at about 2:15 p.m. EDT.

I still can't believe that the markets know that QE is going to come to an end at some point, yet they still fear it and seem unable to build it into their investment strategies. They have had plenty of advanced warning and time to adjust their positions accordingly......but they still don't like it! It seems markets are only forward looking when it suits them.

I suppose the big problem with investment vechicles and their managers is that they have to pay yields as well as a build on the capital invested with them. That has typically meant exiting bonds and cash where interest rates are super low in favour of equities driving indicies higher. No one wants to sell out of equities for cash too early and miss a dividend reducing a funds payable yield... Even when tappering does occur it will take time before the effects filter through into corporates earnings, reduce yield and force fund mangers to shift investments, the capital flight however is a different story.

6632.8 short, average 6598.

Short @6,642.8

Short 6648.8 now averaging 6611.4 with 4 bets.

6648.8 closed at 6606.8 +42, three bets averaging 6598.9

I managed to close half @6,605 now wish I'd closed it all - what a mad few seconds!

Gold on a mission.