rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

hats off to Big Ted, at 12 years old with a missus who wants a boob job, things have changed since I was 12.

as to the markets, it's amazing how dow shot up on just a rumour of bail out for Ambac, it wasn't ready to fall on a day with not much news. On the FTSE next week, the only position I will look to take will be a short, at 6050 with long stops and try and hold with following stops.

Thursday will be important, with Cattles, RBS, BAT, Avis and Aviva reporting Finals. And another 30 companies also reporting.

Hmmmm, i do like reading a good book...! I was only joking about losing the three grand, just looked behind the settee and there it was... lol
I wasn't short yesterday, in fact i was 6' 4"...
was tempted to short very tempted when it was well below 12200, have opened one at the death, possibly prematurely, but cant believe that the gain will be maintained... Missus did threaten if i dont make enough soon for BOTH boobs she's leaving me for Cynic... :) lol

great thread this.

I was unable to participate today - which was just as well as I would have got it totally wrong going short on the Dow.

I am off for 3 weeks hols to sunnier climes - so no open positions - keep up the good work guys

Just left me short running Friday, disapointing result as was close to going long. Never mind, will bring me stop loss in to 12650 I think also. Onwards and downwards so to speak, expecting to see alot of people short on Monday.

Financial Times today seem to be warning about the vast gap that has emerged and usually not sustained for long supposedly between bond prices which are low and equities which are relatively high. Either bond prices need to rise or... Also had a read of James Farleigh's book of dragon's den fame who mentions Stagflation in the 70's and concludes that the only way out is to bite the bullet raise interest rates and endure a recession, though may be not in a US election year!

Sorry Richard Farleigh the Australian dragon!

Falco, have the same book... have to say though, times have changed and both the Fed and BoE are much better at stimulating economies at right time than years ago, having said that i do think our current problems stem from 3 years ago when housing started slowing, the rate was 4.75 and instead of leaving it alone, the BoE dropped it again, causing another massive rise in house prices, i have always maintained, if they left it we could have gone along nicely prob with 5% as a steady growth rate...

Anyone rate Mike Swanson...? I have listened (or rather read) his views, particularily on goldand he seems to be all about... well his recent news letter is suggesting the next big move to be up, big time... hang on, will get link, its worth reading even if you dont agree...

Ah, here it is...

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/5947

just to add to my post 1267 ....

Dow finally closed a smidge below 12400 with FTSE indicating to open around 5950 on Monday.

I need my "cheat sheet" to check targets for FTSE, but its movement will almost inevitably mirror that of Dow ..... so (spitfire) tread gingerly if shorting FTSE prior to Dow opening (or even closing) on Monday.

Dow targets remain in the spectrum of 12250 (arguably 12000) and 12650 before real direction can be established.
Nevertheless, there will almost certainly be plenty of volatility and thus opportunity in the meantime .... getting the timing and rhythm correct will be everything as always!

All I love this thread as you seem to be spot on most of time and give me a dose of reality before committing with both feet. Im sure there is a big move somewhere soon in these indices but they still seem to be stuck in a range. An oil short might be a better play, although not on Friday when 9 inches of snow fell in NY. Fortunately was watching it when it reversed and tooks the profit on a covered long but still think the trend is down sort term.

Just checked ftse chart, and it seems to be in a small bull channel from 11th Feb, with top line at 6045 and bottom line 5900. So if it can break 6045 it may have chance of gaining strength, but a failure to reach this and a drop to below 6000 again could be a good entrance. This has played out on 16,17,18th Jan and 5,19,21th Feb, with no exceptions.

But whichever way it goes, I will go with the trend, even though I'm more comfortable with a short in these markets, I would certainly go long if signals were all in place. It seems that the dow want's to go higher, as seen on Friday with that late rally on a rumour. So ftse could be stronger Monday Tuesday on the back of a higher dow, but Wednesday onwards newsflow and result will kick in.

Good luck to all in coming week.

DOW

Right I think I'll go long on gold, oil, copper and sugar on a June future. All look like they have consolidated at higher levels and will go sideways extending the consolidating triangle before breaking out....

all very difficult to call, and thus very dangerous to take a position for there is no direction at all to Dow at the moment

unfortunately couldn't trade today, had to play Golf again (tough life) then again on Wednesday. I see ftse hit 6010 at 09:50, then fell through 6000 again down to 5930, thats what I wanted to trade. Maybe tomorrow unless it gaps up overnight too far, we will see.

I believe the direction of the dow is down, its fallen hard and fast in recent so a correction to a gradual decent is required. Gold has become an investment haven as has to some extent oil. I see no reason for the continuation of this. Copper, well its been dithering for some time now and demand has increased at a rate above supply, up then consolidate followed by the same again I think. Sugar, global useage has increased and is set to go further, an established food through mass manufacturing, a new energy also today. I'm still negative on the DOW, the service sector and blue chips have taken a beating over past years and been outsourced to cheaper labour contries. This decline in the indicies has been offset by the rise of the property markets but exists as a negative all the same. Third world countries who've taken a chunk of the service sector have become better off and so industry and infrastructure will have to be put in place to support. The propperty market in this sense hasn't really declined but just moved from one area of the world to another, this would of course be backed up by the mining sector still booming, but look where they are mainly supplying... Just my views from reading the papers, investment articles etc. Final observation would be that this is happening now, indicies just playing catch up..

Ditched be short on the YEN well before stop loss, DOW looking dangerous, stop loss was 12800, brought into 12650 and under 100 points away. If its hit this week then I figure the DOW will cruise to 12800 mark, no point risking it all the way with this pace...

Ditto, read enough to give me direction this morning, closed Dow short and Yen short first thing, consensus is 80% recession priced into Dow, i get the feeling any good news will send it flyin up...

smile smile from this poster!