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Well the 29th april low was 1.7584 I think..and 1.7600 a nice round number
still looking down to me

Closed my shorts...lots of talk about 17620 as big support
so its take the money and run

Im still long and am adding to my postions.

Long @ 1.7709

and now

Long @ 1.7614

as well.

Im trying a new strategy that i have been testing for the past few months.

Long Cable IMO

Long Cable 1.7552

i've joined the party folks
tightish stop

stopped out - more downside to come ?

I would not call it 'a party' at the moment

Hilary you must be short...from what level?

No, I missed it I'm sorry to say. Was looking to go long on an upside break above 17770.

I've found this downleg to be very frustrating. I said last week that it was coming ........ here it is .... and I've let it pass me by with the exception of my attempts to short it last week from which I got stopped and a small short yesterday. C'est la vie. I'm wary of coming into a move once it's been under way for 2 or 3 days plus.

Beeble out of my Cable long...better safe than sorry
its a Cable down day so dont want to push my luck in the other direction
out at 1.7597

Also my equities a showing a rare 'blue' colour today
so looking at that too

it's a profit david,
bit like an albatross at golf for me !

like you, equities actually blue,
but just a couple of small longs,
one in your favoutite - oom - got in
at 93.5, and anl 450.5. also got a ftse
long 4412

It's not a long yet and needs to move higher (17630 - 17640 region) before it becomes a buy, imo. This 10:30 news could prove to be the catalyst today. Also unemployment figures at 9:30 need to be watched.

BoE may show how "gradually" rates to rise
Wed 12 May, 2004 04:26

By Tom Bergin

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England has hinted it will raise interest rates gradually. But with no definition of the policy, economists will be looking to the Bank's Inflation Report for clues as to exactly how gradual the rises may be.

After the BoE delivered its third rate hike since November last Thursday, many analysts think they have it figured: each of the three rises were of 25 basis points and came in months when the Bank issued its quarterly Inflation Report.

On this basis the analysts predict that if the British and U.S. economies continue to grow at their current robust pace, the BoE will hike rates from the current 4.25 percent level in August and again in November.

Others are not so sure the Bank's stated aim to avoid giving the market surprises will lead it to be so predictable.

On the contrary, some observers expect Wednesday's report to give a bullish view of the economy that hints toward a quickening of the pace of monetary tightening.

"I think it will be a report that starts to challenge the view about gradual rate rises," said John Butler, UK economist at HSBC.

"I think it will be a report that will show us the door is wide open for them to hike outside Inflation Report months," added Butler, who predicts the next rise will come in July, a month before the year's third Inflation Report is due, and that rates will end the year at 5.0 percent.

HOW GRADUAL IS GRADUAL?

Futures markets have already priced in such a hawkish view on rates. The short sterling curve points toward interest rates of five percent by the end of the year, which would necessitate a quickening in the current quarterly rate hike pace.

Twenty-four out of 34 economists polled by Reuters immediately after the BoE moved rates up last week said they expected another rise in August, with mid-range forecasts showing UK rates at 4.75 percent by year-end.

Yet while the number of economists predicting rates of five percent by year-end is increasing, some suggest the Inflation Report could actually hint at just one more 25 basis point rate rise before the end of the year.

If the BoE emphasises the traditional lag between a move in rates and its impact on the economy, the market might see this as evidence the Bank could allow more time for its rate hikes to filter through to demand before adding to them.

THE OLD LADY PROTESTETH TOO MUCH?

Economists are also hoping the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, as the Bank is also known, will use the May Inflation Report to shed some light on the extent to which house prices feed into its decision-making.

"They can defend looking at house prices but I don't think they have been sufficiently explicit on that topic," said Peter Dixon, economist at Commerzbank.

Bank Governor Mervyn King is expected to face yet more accusations that the Bank is targeting house prices rather than inflation in the news conference scheduled for after the report is published.

In the past fortnight two members of the BoE's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee have reasserted the traditional denials of this and their commitment to the BoE's mandate of targeting inflation of around two percent at a two-year horizon.

But with inflation currently running at 1.1 percent, many commentators see booming house prices and the related surge in consumer borrowing as the only basis for the recent rate rises.

"Come on, admit it" a research note from consultancy Capital Economics demanded of the bank last week.

"If the MPC wants to continue raising interest rates specifically to cool down the housing market, it might be better off just admitting to it," the report went on to say.

Hi - is anyone posting any support/resistamce figures? they ar e really useful!

Support 1.7530
Resistance 1.7780, 1.8000

If thats any help

thanks

Hi hilary...quess that getting over todays trading high of 1.7647 turns the show into a short term buy..


I be interested to know the current thoughts of the MPC post
yesterdays figures.

Perhaps rates wont go to 5% in the UK this year now..
If 4.25 or even 4.5% is seen as top this year
(given the state of manufact. seeming so imp to the MPC)
then Cable will have further to fall

Have to say though that the MPC seems to be in a time warp that
we are still a manufacturing rather than service economy
In todays climate you cant manage both with the same stick
When will they learn this..

foale,

I've drawn a resistance line from the spike high on Friday through the highs of yesterday morning and we seem to be through that this morning and it has since bounced from that line as support.

My oscillators on the hourly chart have turned upwards although they're still oversold and really need to rise up some more for confirmation/comfort. I'm hoping for a lift from the 9:30 to trigger some more short stops and for some bulls to come in on the 10:30 to provide the upwards momentum. Tightish stops until the news has been digested.

So far your wish is coming true

but 1.7710 the bottom of another resistance level

Hi

I followed wht you said & closed a short at 1.7641 - opened a long and......

thanks

closed the long +41 opened another short

out of a long 1.7715....now waiting to see

edit..went into the resistance zone more that I thought
but resistance it is at 17715-17740
Took out another 25 points from 7736 down...now flat again

Can see us doing a bit of range trading between 17740 and 17690
so sitting on hands