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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic - 02 Aug 2013 15:28 - 12698 of 21973

well spotted - looks almost a racing certainty, which of course means it'll thunder ahead once one has placed a short!

Shortie - 02 Aug 2013 16:02 - 12699 of 21973

A disappointing U.S. jobs report caught bond bears wrong-footed Friday, fueling a strong price rally in the $11.9 trillion safe-harbor Tresury bond market. In recent trade, the benchmark 10-year note rose by 25/32 in price, yielding 2.626%. Bond prices rise when their yields fall. Optimism had mounted over the past few sessions that employment would gather speed, which could allow the Federal Reserve to start tapering its bond buying in September. Traders had piled into bets wagering on bond prices to fall and that had sent the benchmark 10-year yield to near a two-year peak. The yield touched as high as 2.749% earlier Friday, looking set to break the 2.75% level some traders believe would accelerate the move toward 3%. But the smaller-than-forecast 163,000 new jobs number for July caused frenetic buying to cover soured bets on bond prices, sending the yield down to as low as 2.6%. "Everyone was leaning one way toward higher rates," said Larry Milstein, head of government and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. in New York. "The jobs data put into question the idea of Fed tapering in September." The 10-year yield has soared from this year's low of 1.61% on May 1. Fears that yields would keep rising as the Fed reduces support for the bond market have been the key driver pushing investors to shed holdings. Since January the Fed has been buying $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, which had held bond yields near historic lows. The quantitative-easing stimulus aims to reduce long-term borrowing cost for U.S. consumers and businesses. Some traders warned the strength in bonds won't last long. The market is bracing for $72 billion in new debt sales in the coming week, and dealers may push up yields to lure customers to buy new offerings. The supply will include $32 billion in three-year notes, $24 billion in 10-year notes and $16 billion in 30-year bonds. Bets on the Fed cutting back on buying bonds in September would mount again if upcoming data show the recovery is picking up speed. The 10-year yield is still relatively low from a historic perspective. The yield traded above 5.5% in 2007 before the financial crisis sent bond yields tumbling. The yield hit a record low of 1.38% in July 2012. Some bond bears argue the yield needs to rise to reflect an improving economy as U.S. stocks persistently hit record highs. Without the Fed's buying, the yield should trade between 3.5% and 4%. "The only way we get yields below 2% again is for some massive unforeseen event to take place such as natural disaster, war, global disruption," said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed-income rates sales in New York at ED & F Man Capital Markets. Still, the selling in bonds would likely be more gradual this time compared with the spring swoon, traders said. One factor keeping up the pace of the selloff is the Fed's message that moving to cut back on bond buying doesn't translate into a shift into raising interest rates. The Fed signaled earlier this week after its monetary policy meeting that it will continue to keep its short-term policy rate near zero for a long period. Yields on shorter-dated Treasury bonds are anchored by the policy rates. The two-year note yielded at 0.305% Friday. For some investors, the large premium of the 10-year note over two-year note, near the widest in two years, could draw in buying interest. But the yield gap may continue to widen. A popular trade among traders has been to sell longer-dated bonds and buy shorter-dated notes. The trade is based on belief that Fed tapering would keep pushing up longer-dated yields while no rise in the policy rate would continue to anchor shorter-dated yields.

The market is bracing for $72 billion in new debt sales in the coming week, and dealers may push up yields to lure customers to buy new offerings. The supply will include $32 billion in three-year notes, $24 billion in 10-year notes and $16 billion in 30-year bonds. Maybe we'll see Wall St fall next week as traders shift from equities to bonds. No one wants to hold cash as there's no return with the current discount rate.

Shortie - 06 Aug 2013 12:22 - 12700 of 21973

Lets see how far it extends 48000 maybe..top of its range 46330 and looks overbought but until it changes direction isn't worth a short play

Shortie - 06 Aug 2013 12:26 - 12701 of 21973

Interesting Chart, note the CCI20 figure, maybe short today.

cynic - 06 Aug 2013 14:45 - 12702 of 21973

shortie - are you not having a pop at AAPL?

Shortie - 06 Aug 2013 15:54 - 12703 of 21973

Not just yet Cynic, I'll leave alone for now as it needs to break support and confirm to me its not just testing support for a move higher... I have been closing out FTSE short positions from last week taking profits.

Shortie - 06 Aug 2013 16:09 - 12704 of 21973

Here's the bounce, see if it passes through support.. worth noting convergence and divergence also yet to break below 0..

cynic - 06 Aug 2013 16:28 - 12705 of 21973

i too have taken a bundle off the table, fortunately profitably too :-)

Shortie - 06 Aug 2013 16:43 - 12706 of 21973

I've left a short on the FTSE, note +6 up currently, DAX +7.5, DOW -98.0. We're still seeing pockets of strength so no doubt as the week progresses I'll be buying back my short positions once again.

skinny - 06 Aug 2013 16:47 - 12707 of 21973

I've been short since yesterday morning (closed half this afternoon) - in case there is a ME incident - although the overnight charge looks quite large this week.

skinny - 07 Aug 2013 05:56 - 12708 of 21973

@£16 per £ short charge.

cynic - 07 Aug 2013 06:56 - 12709 of 21973

if ftse drops back to 6500, i'll assuredly be a buyer .... meanwhile, i'll try to avoid itchy fingers!

Shortie - 07 Aug 2013 09:38 - 12710 of 21973

Overnight charge on FTSE, ouch... Shame I didn't read your post yesterday evening Skinny.. £14.40 per £ I was charged..

Shortie - 07 Aug 2013 09:42 - 12711 of 21973

European stock markets staged broad-based losses on Wednesday, tracking both U.S. and Asian stocks lower, after Federal Reserve officials said a reduction in asset purchases is likely later this year. Investors were also waiting for the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report and whether the central bank will reveal a framework for forward guidance.

Charles Evans, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve said late Tuesday the economy should improve enough in the second half of the year to allow the central bank to scale back its $85-billion-a-month asset purchases. The comments came after Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, told Market News International that the tapering process could begin at any of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year. The U.K. central bank was also in focus in Wednesday's trade ahead of the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report. Apart from laying out the bank's inflation projections, Governor Mark Carney is also expected to outline if and how the central bank will deploy forward guidance on monetary policy. "We expect the likely announcement of a more aggressive approach to monetary policy -- either via a time- or state-contingent commitment -- to anchor short GBP rates and to weigh on sterling," analysts at Danske Bank said in a note.

cynic - 07 Aug 2013 09:51 - 12712 of 21973

excuse me guys, but does that mean that every single night you get charged +/-£14 for every £ (short only?) position you have open? ...... that doesn't sound a very good deal to me!

skinny - 07 Aug 2013 09:52 - 12713 of 21973

Yes - bit of a bugger.

I've closed and am waiting to re-enter.

skinny - 07 Aug 2013 09:54 - 12714 of 21973

No only overnight on a Tuesday, 99% of shares go ex dividend on a Wednesday - essentially you are charged to cover the dividend amount weighted to the FTSE.

Conversely, if you are long an ex-dividend share, you get the dividend - as I did with BT.A.

Shortie - 07 Aug 2013 10:02 - 12715 of 21973

All depends on the amount of stock going ex dividned, sometimes the payment is very small and sometimes quite heavy like the one last night. Must get back in the habit of checking this though... Mind you its only ever a small set back.

Shortie - 07 Aug 2013 10:11 - 12716 of 21973

I'm making the upper resistance point 6660, on the dailys. Seams to be some support at 6600, could break either way right now. I've set a short for 6610 as I'm thinking double top 6400 support needs to be confirmed.

Shortie - 07 Aug 2013 10:21 - 12717 of 21973

148.504 I've also just gone long on the GJ, I'm hoping for support and a move back to 150's.

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