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LONDON (Reuters) - Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) was on Friday talking with key shareholders to gauge investor appetite for a potential 12 billion pound cash call, one of the biggest on record.
The part-nationalised lender approached its shareholders on Thursday, investor sources said, and hopes to complete the bumper rights issue before the Christmas holiday.
One top ten Lloyds investor said the participation and scrutiny of the government, which owns a 43 percent stake in Lloyds, made it more likely the fundraising would succeed.
"We have to assume they would have passed it by the FSA (regulator), by the Treasury and got it approved by the Bank of England, and the government is putting its hand in its pocket, so there is a high degree of testing by interested parties who wouldn't want egg on their face," the investor said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The share sale would have to be priced at a discount of at least 40 percent, given the amount of capital being raised and uncertainties over the bank's future prospects, analysts said.
"What I'm hearing is it will be at least 40 percent," said one analyst who asked not to be named.
"It would have to be a big discount for such a huge amount of capital, and given all the uncertainty around it. So I think 40 is a reasonable number, it might be a bit more than that."
The country's biggest retail lender needs the money to fund its exit from a costly government scheme to insure it against credit losses that the bank hopes will prove unnecessary following an improvement in market conditions since the asset protection scheme was drawn up in March.
In all, the bank is looking to plug a capital gap of more than 20 billion pounds using the rights issue, fresh hybrid capital and a convertible bond. It said on Thursday that talks on exiting the protection scheme were well advanced.
Lloyds shares were up 4 percent at 89.4 pence by 11:10 a.m. British time, extending Thursday's gains of around 8 percent after the bank said EU regulators investigating its reliance on state aid would not impose draconian penalties.
Lloyds is close to a deal with the European Commission under which it would sell Lloyds TSB Scotland, its Cheltenham & Gloucester branch network, and internet banking unit Intelligent Finance, two sources familiar with the matter said.
"There's a bit of relief in there. It's a clear story now: The Commission won't require as much in the way of disposals as feared," the analyst said.
The EU-mandated break-up of Dutch bancassurer ING earlier this week stirred fears that it might be forced to dispose of its much bigger Halifax mortgage business, triggering a steep fall in its share price.
The shareholder who spoke to Reuters said that despite the amount of capital being sought by Lloyds there was a case for investing, particularly if one believes the economy is stabilising.
"It has a good franchise, good brand, it is well-placed to benefit from the turnaround," the shareholder said, but cautioned nobody yet knew what the likely extent of losses on bad loans would be.
"If anybody thinks they can guess impairments with any certainty, then they have an insight into the future."
FANTASY PORTFOLIO - BIG GAINS FOR 2009 (PORT) Add Favourite
Master RSI - 05 Feb'09 - 22:25 edit
During the near future I will be selecting a number of shares, most likely 10 that will be the base for the Fantasy Portfolio Year 2009 1 - There will be a spread of shares selected from different sectors of the Industry. 2 - The selection will be of shares considered as undervalued, by growth or PE 3 - Every share will be invested in 10,000 at middle price. 4 - The total amount most likely will be 100,000 5 - Any bid for a company the total amount from it can be reinvested on another share
Master RSI - 5 Feb'09 - 22:47 - 1 of 72 edit
No. 1
BVC price 24.125p (spread 23.75 - 24.50p)
Buy 41,450 shares @ 24.125p = 10.000
Background
BATM Advanced designs and produces broadband data and telecommunications solutions geared toward the needs of enterprises, corporate and Telecom networks.
BATM has excelled in the design and manufacture of innovative high-performance communications equipment.
Its leading edge technologies include fiber optic networking, multi-service transport, access solutions, and integrated IP voice, video and data services. BATM develops and produces an extensive line of all layer routing IP switches and muxes. Advanced optical solutions are integrated in many of those switches.
Facts
BVC had a very sucesfull 2008 growing at a rate of 60% at the Interim stage, much is expected for the full Year due on the 17th March 09 as the company already said at the update last Month.
Forecast / valuation
My Forecast is for $30.3M and 8.07c equivalent to 20.8M and 5.54p at today price of 24.125p gives a very low PE of 4.3. Is expected to declare a dividend over the last Year 1c and has cash of $60.1M ( 10.6p)
Reason for share price falling
The share price has fallen from 61p during the last 4 month, from what it seems there was a force seller, is now recovering very slowly as some Institutions have been buying again at this low prices, Indicators are at a point of oversold.
Why is undervalued
The P E for a company on the TECHNOLOGY business, making large profits paying dividend and having a large cash is well undervalued, as this type of stocks on normal times are price on PE of 16 to 18
Master RSI - 13 Feb'09 - 15:17 - 3 of 72 edit
No. 2
LLOY 65.40p (65.30 / 65.50p)
Buy 15,290 shares at 65.40p = 10,000
Today's trading statement saying that the last adquisition HBOS will be hit by 8.50M loss, but LLOY traded profitably and satisfactorily in 2008 and expects to report a profit before tax from its continuing businesses, including the impact of approximately 1.3bn from market dislocation, of some 2.4bn.
The Group's Core tier 1 capital ratio at 31 December 2008 will be within the range of 6.0 - 6.5 per cent, which is significantly in excess of its regulatory capital requirements.
Valuation
The mark down looks overdone after the large fall already for such a long time, the tier of 6 / 6.50 is reasonable
Master RSI - 24 Feb'09 - 13:25 - 4 of 72 edit
No. 3
SPT 40.125p (40 / 40.25p)
Buy 24,922 shares at 40.125p = 10,000
Supper Year results from the company today with EPS of 6.24p meaning the shares sell on a PE of 6.4, paying dividend of 1.10p for the year a 2.74% yield .
The revenues, pretax profits and EPS, have been growing at the last Quater also from the 3er one.
Company has been buying its own shares for a long time now and on the last 14 month was 200 Millions, using tender at times.
Master RSI - 2 Mar'09 - 12:40 - 7 of 72 edit
No. 4
BP. 433.625 ( 433.50 / 433.75 )
Buy 2306 shares at 433.675p = 10.000
Share price has been weak recently as the OIL price has come down from its hights last year and the stock market has once again come further down during the last month.
Last results from the company has been good though the last Q have suffered due to the oil price, but the cash flow is strong and the cash is building once again as at the moment the share buyback of the last 2 years have finished for the moment being.
Maybe some opportunities on the Takeover front will be more interesting for the cash.
A very high Yield on the dividend front, is interesting on those days of low interest on the banks.
Master RSI - 16 Mar'09 - 13:05 - 10 of 72 edit
No. 5
AFR 14.875p ( 14.75 / 15p )
Buy 67,226 shares @ 14.875p = 10.000
A very undervalued share, if we go by the posible profit forecast and the strong cash flow fom the different producing fields mainly Ebok
Company has hedge againts the oil price at a much higher prices than the low price know.
Some recent emails from the company to investors
10 March 09
Thank you for your recent enquiry submitted through the Afren website.
In order to best respond to your questions I feel that it may be
beneficial to firstly update you on Afren's operations and activities
and then provide thoughts on the exogenous factors that are impacting
not only Afren but the sector as a whole.
Okoro
We successfully completed development work at Okoro in Q4 2008 and are
now producing profitably at a stable rate of approximately 22,000 bopd
from all seven wells. This marks a significant out-performance versus
the 15,000 bopd volume we previously guided towards. The project was
successfully delivered within two years from announcing the initial
agreement with our local partner, an exceptionally short lead time by
industry standards and an achievement of which we are proud.
Master RSI - 22 Apr'09 - 16:35 - 15 of 72 edit
No. 6
INCH 18p (17.75 / 18.25p)
Buy 55,555 shares at 18p = 10,000
The largest motor dealer on the UK has recently made a very large Righ Issue at a very discounted price 9 for 1 @ 6p to among other things ..........
* reduce the Group's gearing;
* decrease the Group's total finance charges and costs otherwise payable on its existing finance facilities;
* provide the Group with increased headroom to the only financial covenant
(adjusted interest cover) contained within its existing borrowing facilities;
* delay the Group's refinancing requirement to the end of 2012;
* better position the Group to gain market share during the current downturn and to take advantage of growth opportunities when the market recovers
Today's announcement on the budget of car scrappage - 2000 discount for new cars when trading in a car over 10 years old, sales can be boosted 10 to 15% by this and EPS be lifted by double the porcentage of sales.
The low interest rates lately plus today,s scheme could be the turning point for the fortunes of the company
Master RSI - 24 Apr'09 - 22:23 - 17 of 72 edit
No. 7
SKR 15.675p (15.255 / 16p)
Buy 63,795 shares at 15.675p = 10,000
Floated at 120p on June 08 raising 33.6m to fund the development of a fertiliser factory, has used $5.9m for adquisitions last September and said it still had $33.9m left at the time.
The company has a phosphorous rock deposit in Kazakhstan totalling 800 million tonnes capable of producing fertilisers for the next 56 years.
The deposit lies in a flat lying position on the Kazakh steppes close to surface so will be cheap to mine and the world still needs fertilisers.
Positive points
1. Shallow - 1 to 3m depth. Ultra low cost to extract.
2. Close to Tengiz oil field which has high sulphur content, hence cheap source of sulphuric acid.
3. Located at junction of two main railway lines giving direct access to Russia/China.
Sunkar is suppose to be one of the lowest cost producers in the World at sub $125 per DAP (die-ammonium phosphate) tonne. The average is circa $200 with some producers as high as $300.
The case for phosphate deposits is population growth means more agriculture means more fertiliser needed in the future.
Master RSI - 4 May'09 - 17:41 - 21 of 72 edit
No. 8
RCG 53.375p (52.50 / 44p)
Buy 18.735 shares at 53.375p = 10,000
Last March results were strong considering the weakness of the HK$
Cash flow still strong at 60% in H2008
The business still enjoying some growth momentum,
* Net cash forecast at 31/12/09 of 40.7m GBP
* 2008 NAV 92p per share and forecast to grow to 121.2p in 2009
Pay a dividend by way of a scrip share issue
Investec has 50.1m and 18.8p EPS pencilled in for 2009 prior to March results.
Trading on just 3 x 09 PE (135p), based on a 6 x 09 PE rating.
Master RSI - 6 Jul'09 - 11:02 - 34 of 72 edit
No. 9
CFM 10.875 ( 10.75 / 11p )
Buy 91,954 shares at 10.875p = 10,000
A copper, cobalt and platinium exploration company, last month discovered bauxite resource of about 439 million metric tons in Mali.
Today has entered into a long-term sales agreement with Galico to deliver its entire annual production of an estimated 6,000 to 8,000 tonnes of cobalt contained in concentrate form, at prevailing market prices, from its Mukondo Mountain cobalt operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo contained in concentrate form, at prevailing market prices, from its Mukondo Mountain cobalt operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Has three strong streams of revenue to provide a solid foundation for growth.
Master RSI - 23 Jul'09 - 10:35 - 42 of 72 edit
No. 10
YELL 27.125p ( 27 / 27.25p )
Buy 36,866 shares at 27.125p = 10,000
Announcing Q results today as it seem they have turn the corner
" Yell Group reported revenue and EBITDA slightly ahead of guidance for the quarter to end-June.
Adjusted EBITDA was down 8% to 148m; down 17.7% at constant exchange rates.
Revenue was up 1.5% to 475.3m; down 10.4% at constant exchange rates.
Online revenue was up 21% at constant exchange rates to 21% of total revenue.
Operating cash flow was up 27.6% to 205.1m; up 10.9% at constant exchange rates.
Free cash flow before payments of exceptionals was 129.6m (2008 - 85.4m.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share weredown 43.2% to 4.6p; down 49.0% at constant exchange rates
John Condron, CEO, said: 'In what remains a very difficult economic environment, our trading continues to outperform others in the media sector, reflecting the cost-effectiveness of our services in each of our channels.
'Despite the recession, our internet usage and revenue continue to grow strongly, with the internet now 21% of our total Group revenue in the quarter with the UK even higher at 28%. We continue to drive traffic through search engine optimisation, marketing and enhanced service features.
'In print, the economy is clearly placing pressure on customers' total spend but loyalty rates remain at a high level. We continue to expand our 'proven value' programmes, demonstrating to customers the true benefit of using Yell's advertising channels.
'Our relative resilience, increased market share and operating efficiency position us to benefit from economic recovery when it eventually arrives.' "
Only radical thinking can fix the banks
Telegraph view: When it comes to breaking up RBS and Lloyds, the devil will be in the detail
Next week, the Government will take its first tentative steps to extricate itself from the banks that it nationalised during the credit crisis of 2007 and 2008. They were taken into public ownership, and provided with colossal sums of taxpayers' money, in order to prevent them from going bust and causing a collapse in the credit system. The bankers' bad decisions led to the disaster, but the rest of us were handed the cost of bailing them out.
As we report today, the plan is to break up Lloyds TSB, Northern Rock and the Royal Bank of Scotland. Lloyds will have to sell at least two of the companies it took over during the boom years, TSB and Cheltenham & Gloucester. Northern Rock will be split into a "good bank" with viable assets, which will be sold; and a "bad bank" containing the toxic debt, which the Government will continue to hold. RBS will be required to sell hundreds of branches and dispose of the insurance companies that it owns, which include Direct Line, Churchill and Green Flag. It may also be forced to dispose of its investment banking arm although its chief executive, Stephen Hester, has said that this will destroy the bank, as it produces 70 per cent of RBS's profits.
The sell-off has been prompted by Neelie Kroes, the EU competition commissioner, who has set demanding conditions for any European bank to qualify for state aid. Breaking up RBS contradicts what had been the Government's policy up until now: supporting the bank's expansion so it could make as much money as quickly as possible, and thereby repay taxpayers. The Government is doing its best to put a positive spin on the change of direction, insisting that a banking sector made up of smaller, more traditional banks that do not engage in risky bets with their depositors' money is essential to restoring health to Britain's economy and ensuring a steady flow of credit. There is certainly something in that argument and in the point that more competition in high-street banking, whether from these new entities or others, will be of great benefit to consumers. The problem is finding a way to make it work. In a global banking market, bigger banks have an enormous competitive advantage over smaller ones and the normal workings of that market mean that the minnows are quickly swallowed up by the sharks.
There are other critical problems that the Government will have to solve to ensure the new banking sector does not simply repeat the mistakes of the old. It will have to tackle "moral hazard": bankers taking enormous risks because they know the state will bail them out. And, as ever, the devil is in the detail. Whether these proposals work depends largely on how they are executed: Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling will be attempting simultaneously to establish a stable yet vigorous banking system, to claw back the maximum amount for taxpayers, and to prove themselves right to have committed billions to the bailouts (and the Tories wrong). But beyond the petty politicking, fixing the financial system is going to require some very radical thinking. As yet, there is depressingly little sign of it.