cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
hilary
- 19 Sep 2013 08:21
- 12960 of 21973
skinny
- 19 Sep 2013 08:24
- 12961 of 21973
I can't think what you are suggesting!
skinny
- 19 Sep 2013 08:25
- 12962 of 21973
hilary
- 19 Sep 2013 09:36
- 12963 of 21973
Actually, skinners, I'm not a big fan of the 'Us and Them' conspiracy theory, and I very much doubt that any more than a handful of people were privy to a sneak preview of the release.
It only takes the first player who has seen the news to react and take the offer and put a bid in its place causing the price to break from its range, and that will trigger 100's (if not 1,000's) of algos into following the price action. Those algos won't have necessarily seen (or interpreted) the data as they will just be programmed to act like sheep and chase the price. It's almost certain that they will also be programmed to close out immediately the army of retail punters try to get on board and provide some liquidity for the algos to sell into. As per the Nanex data, this was done and dusted in a flash.
So, no great conspiracy theory from me, just an observation that the HFT algos won, and the retail punter who takes 650ms to press his mouse button (and 11 minutes to find the mouse beforehand) will have lost. I don't even think there was anything complex about the algorithms used - it is simply a case of the firms involved having super-duper hi-tech connections into the liquidity pool to ensure they're the first to reach the offer.
Have you read
this interview with a HF Trader?
cynic
- 19 Sep 2013 09:36
- 12964 of 21973
now i'm in a quandary as to what to do next, even if it's nothing
my gut instinct is that both dow and ftse will continue north, but obviously not in a straight line - so shall prob wait for a "bad day" to add to my existing small longs
WPP, which i already hold, looks one to benefit further though i shan't add
international transportation index is worth looking at - don't know its NMX code - on the basis that world economies are now recovering and will be cheered further by the weaker $
==============
and have obeyed myself by taking the profit on my trading contract from 2 days ago in NMX3720
Shortie
- 19 Sep 2013 09:40
- 12965 of 21973
I sold the DOW prior to the FEDs decision last night and took a profit. Bought back in at 15614 last night minimum stake though. Running short on the FTSE 6649.8 and DAX 8741.3 also.
skinny
- 19 Sep 2013 09:41
- 12966 of 21973
I'll have a read - thanks.
Meanwhile, I'm aiming to improve on your timings above -
Unprecedented Speeds for High Frequency Trading: NeXXCom Solutions Approaching the Speed of Light
Not a new article and there was a recent Horizon? on the amounts of money being spent on centres nearer and nearer to the bleeding edge.
hilary
- 19 Sep 2013 09:43
- 12967 of 21973
I'm sure that
Ginge will do you a knockout deal, Skinners.
:o)
Shortie
- 19 Sep 2013 09:44
- 12968 of 21973
GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have my attention, possible short position.
cynic
- 19 Sep 2013 09:45
- 12969 of 21973
i don't do currencies - too much intelligence needed!
skinny
- 19 Sep 2013 09:47
- 12970 of 21973
Shortie
- 19 Sep 2013 10:04
- 12971 of 21973
Cynic - Intelligence needed for currencies, not sure I'd agree!! Unless of course you count band wagon jumping as being clever..
My view of the FEDs decision is that no change will only add more uncertainty to the markets. The low labour force participation rate, drags on economic growth due to congressional wrangling over a looming budget deadline, and the recent rise in mortgage rates were the reasons given and Bernanke expressed frustration at the looming congressional impasse on whether or not to raise the limit that the US can borrow.
hilary
- 19 Sep 2013 10:11
- 12972 of 21973
Shortie,
The problem facing the Fed now is that they are adamant they will still meet their target of exiting QE by mid-2014.
The clock is ticking on some kind of self-enforced countdown, and they've got Janet Yellen (a known dove) waiting in the wings to take over from Bernanke. How's all that gonna work then?
Unsurprisingly, the market can smell rocking horse poo and the smell will get stronger if they continue to sit on the fence in October.
cynic
- 19 Sep 2013 10:15
- 12973 of 21973
hilary - surely if that were the case, the markets would not have reacted so positively?
skinny
- 19 Sep 2013 10:17
- 12974 of 21973
Shortie
- 19 Sep 2013 10:38
- 12975 of 21973
Rocking horse poo, thats got to be the best term for capital outflows and a selloff in emerging markets yet... lol
hilary
- 19 Sep 2013 10:41
- 12976 of 21973
Cyners,
QE (and any tapering delay) is +ve for equity markets and -ve for USD.
Shortie
- 19 Sep 2013 10:45
- 12977 of 21973
cynic
- 19 Sep 2013 10:54
- 12978 of 21973
quite so, but hilary writes as if tapering will indeed be completed (extinct) by mid 2014 ..... personally, i very much doubt it
Shortie
- 19 Sep 2013 11:08
- 12979 of 21973
Hilarys views are the same Cynic, she said...
The clock is ticking on some kind of self-enforced countdown, and they've got Janet Yellen (a known dove) waiting in the wings to take over from Bernanke. How's all that gonna work then?