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Traders Thread - Friday 5th December (EZJ)
Crocodile - 04 Dec 2003 21:57
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US stocks moved higher in late-session trading leaving the Dow up 57 at 9930 the S&P up 4.99 and the Nasdaq up 8.55 EasyJet said it carried 1.7 million passengers in November, up 14.6 percent on the same month last year and said its passenger loadings in November were 81.5 percent, up from 80.5 percent. P&O said trading for 2003 was still in line with comments made at the time of its third quarter trading update. News will be posted at approx 7:35am Berkeley Group property posted a 3.5 percent rise in interim profits, above estimates, and said the property market continued to be uncertain, especially in the southeast. Profits were 116.8 million pounds with Analysts estimates between 100-115.5 million pounds. |
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Arla Foods (I), Berkeley Group (I), Bristol Water Holdings (I) Associated British Foods (AGM), P&O Trading Statement, EasyJet Nov Traffic Figures French Connection Split Expected Ex Date. Terms are 5 shares for 1 RegUS Rights Issues. Terms are 1 share for every 3 @ 28p |
13.30 Nov Non-Farm Payrolls 150k exp. 15.00 Oct Factory Orders 2.2% exp. 20.00 Oct Consumer Credit $5.0bn exp. |
11.00 Oct German Preliminary Industrial Production m/m 1.3% exp. |
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zarif
- 05 Dec 2003 14:41
- 13 of 35
Stockbunny:
I had a short on yesterday Jan dow when i went to Leeds at Tims Yorkshire meet and closed it preopen when it plummeted down.Also i have a long open EUR/USD from yesterday which so far is in credit -but am leaving it running as its an uptrend and the dollar getting pasted.
Ym: just watching the action not in battle -on the sidelines a spectator atm.
rgds
zarif
I had a short on yesterday Jan dow when i went to Leeds at Tims Yorkshire meet and closed it preopen when it plummeted down.Also i have a long open EUR/USD from yesterday which so far is in credit -but am leaving it running as its an uptrend and the dollar getting pasted.
Ym: just watching the action not in battle -on the sidelines a spectator atm.
rgds
zarif
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 14:45 - 14 of 35
Hi all, just logged on again after a bit of Christmas
shopping.
I see the jobs number wasn't as good as expected and my
fears about a bit of profit taking has come true.
Although the data wasn't as good as expected, it wasn't bad.
Unemployment rate has actually dipped to 5.9%.
This should keep the Fed on hold for a bit ref interest rates.
This will give stability to the bond markets and keep the Dollar
depreciating in a controlled manner.
A dip now could give some buying opportunities for a Christmas
rally. Not sure how much of one, we need better data than this
to break indices resistance levels and start a new leg up.
As zarif said, could get interesting.
Melnibone.
shopping.
I see the jobs number wasn't as good as expected and my
fears about a bit of profit taking has come true.
Although the data wasn't as good as expected, it wasn't bad.
Unemployment rate has actually dipped to 5.9%.
This should keep the Fed on hold for a bit ref interest rates.
This will give stability to the bond markets and keep the Dollar
depreciating in a controlled manner.
A dip now could give some buying opportunities for a Christmas
rally. Not sure how much of one, we need better data than this
to break indices resistance levels and start a new leg up.
As zarif said, could get interesting.
Melnibone.
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 14:55 - 15 of 35
FUTURES UPDATE : 9.25 E.T.
S and P vs fair value : 4.2
Nasdaq vs fair value :14.2
Futures market continue to trade with bearish bias,and as a result,the cash
market should start the day firmly in negative territory.
rgds aj
S and P vs fair value : 4.2
Nasdaq vs fair value :14.2
Futures market continue to trade with bearish bias,and as a result,the cash
market should start the day firmly in negative territory.
rgds aj
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 14:59 - 16 of 35
Hi Melnibone.Gold is depreciating ? Why would the dollar depreciate ?rgds aj
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:02 - 17 of 35
Ref : Unemployment data.See my post on Gold price and my view gold will drop
below 400 rgds aj
below 400 rgds aj
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:04 - 18 of 35
Basically,the experts predicted the results and that is why gold dropped
before the event.rgds aj
before the event.rgds aj
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 15:09 - 19 of 35
Dollar will depreciate because the Fed will keep
interest rates at low levels. With the effect of
inflation, this means a negative return in real terms.
If the Fed raise rates too soon it will stifle spending,
increase debt repayments, and risk deflation rather
than dis-inflation.
Crudely put, you get more bang per buck with investments
in places with higher rates.
Gold and commodities are are an alternative investment
if you are not convinced about an economic revival in the
long term. They are also a finite item. Mother Earth
isn't making any more of the stuff any time soon.
Melnibone.
interest rates at low levels. With the effect of
inflation, this means a negative return in real terms.
If the Fed raise rates too soon it will stifle spending,
increase debt repayments, and risk deflation rather
than dis-inflation.
Crudely put, you get more bang per buck with investments
in places with higher rates.
Gold and commodities are are an alternative investment
if you are not convinced about an economic revival in the
long term. They are also a finite item. Mother Earth
isn't making any more of the stuff any time soon.
Melnibone.
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:10 - 20 of 35
Ref above my post below 400.
My prediction was correct i.e.New York Spot Price low was 399 rgds aj
My prediction was correct i.e.New York Spot Price low was 399 rgds aj
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:15 - 21 of 35
If dollar going to depreciate Gold would be going up -- not down rgds aj
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:19 - 22 of 35
Gold supply/mines are virtually infinite.
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 15:27 - 23 of 35
Gold is an alternative investment, not a direct contrarian
play on the Dollar.
Gold is not infinite, there is a finite amount.
It gets more expensive to mine it as the easy supplys
diminish.
As it gets more expensive to mine, it will only get mined
if the return is greater than the cost of mining it.
If the demand is there the price will have to rise to match
the cost. Just normal supply and demand criteria.
Melnibone.
play on the Dollar.
Gold is not infinite, there is a finite amount.
It gets more expensive to mine it as the easy supplys
diminish.
As it gets more expensive to mine, it will only get mined
if the return is greater than the cost of mining it.
If the demand is there the price will have to rise to match
the cost. Just normal supply and demand criteria.
Melnibone.
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:29 - 24 of 35
As I stated on another site : I felt Gold would fall and rise next week beause
of terrorism/dollar being an unstable currency.I suggest you read all the
Gold threads - not just mine rgds aj
of terrorism/dollar being an unstable currency.I suggest you read all the
Gold threads - not just mine rgds aj
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 15:29 - 25 of 35
FTSE, DOW and S@p now back to the levels they were at
when the employment numbers were released at 1330 Hrs.
Now we'll see where the markets want to go.
Melnibone.
when the employment numbers were released at 1330 Hrs.
Now we'll see where the markets want to go.
Melnibone.
ajren - 05 Dec 2003 15:33 - 26 of 35
Mining costs are getting cheaper ref gold threads China,etc
The dollar/gold are always linked in times of global uncertainity/war/terrorism
It is virtually infinite - probably for the next 500 years:supply/demand
rgds aj
The dollar/gold are always linked in times of global uncertainity/war/terrorism
It is virtually infinite - probably for the next 500 years:supply/demand
rgds aj
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 15:55 - 27 of 35
I agree that gold is turned to in times of uncertainty,
I said so when I said that it would be used as an alternative
investment.
But I still do not believe that the price is always inversely
proportional to the Dollar.
I still say though, that the Dollar will depreciate, this
means if you are correct, and I'm not saying that you are not,
that the price of Gold will rise.
I don't really follow Gold so I would need to see a comparison
chart of the strength of the Dollar ref a basket of currencies
against the price of Gold.
I'm not sure how I got involved in this Gold discussion, but the
points you raise are interesting.
Melnibone.
I said so when I said that it would be used as an alternative
investment.
But I still do not believe that the price is always inversely
proportional to the Dollar.
I still say though, that the Dollar will depreciate, this
means if you are correct, and I'm not saying that you are not,
that the price of Gold will rise.
I don't really follow Gold so I would need to see a comparison
chart of the strength of the Dollar ref a basket of currencies
against the price of Gold.
I'm not sure how I got involved in this Gold discussion, but the
points you raise are interesting.
Melnibone.
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 16:20 - 28 of 35
Looks like stockbunny is going to be correct.
A fizzle-out sort of day.
Not worth buying anything with the weekend coming up
and 4.5 Hrs worth of trading to go on the US markets
after the FTSE close.
US markets could go anywhere, so it would be a pure
guess to take a new position now.
Melnibone.
A fizzle-out sort of day.
Not worth buying anything with the weekend coming up
and 4.5 Hrs worth of trading to go on the US markets
after the FTSE close.
US markets could go anywhere, so it would be a pure
guess to take a new position now.
Melnibone.
stockbunny
- 05 Dec 2003 16:25
- 29 of 35
Doesn't look like it knows which direction it wants to go in
(directed to FTSE)although the losses on banks are not looking
quite so big but still unfortunately big enough...
(directed to FTSE)although the losses on banks are not looking
quite so big but still unfortunately big enough...
stockbunny
- 05 Dec 2003 16:26
- 30 of 35
wow steady..I've got three patches of blue on the screen now...
LOL
LOL
zarif
- 05 Dec 2003 16:28
- 31 of 35
Eur/USD Eur just hit a high at 1.2167. My long from yesterday is certainly very healthy. Have moved the stps tight as is still in an uptrend.
The dow is like a headless chicken (sorry about the analogy).I think some more results out at 3pm EST.
rgds
zarif
The dow is like a headless chicken (sorry about the analogy).I think some more results out at 3pm EST.
rgds
zarif
Melnibone - 05 Dec 2003 16:33 - 32 of 35
Looks like I was right to sell my LGEN again yesterday.
For some reason it seems to be diverging from the FTSE
as can be seen above.
It's following the FTSE on the down moves but not rising
up as much on the FTSE up moves.
I think that I need to watch for the divergence to finish
before buying again, but only if I think that the FTSE is
going to rise.
Melnibone
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