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Traders Thread - Thursday 12th February (BARC)     

Crocodile - 11 Feb 2004 21:46

UK PreMarket Futures FTSE +18 DAX +10 DOW -15 S&P -1 Nasdaq +1

1 Day

2 Day

 5 Day

UK News
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Gold/Bond Pivots Markets  Futures Translate
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1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  US News

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S&P Futures

Nikkei  +95  Hang Seng +108   Asia News

DAX CAC  Euro News
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Dow closes at highest level in more than 2.5 years as investors cheer Greenspan's views

Unilever said its 2003 net profit had come in at 4.277 billion euros at the higher end of analysts' expectations, who had predicted a 2003 profit ranging between 3.531 billion and 4.288 billion euros. Niall FitzGerald will retire as chairman 

Barclays bank said on Thursday that full-year profit rose 20 percent to 3.845 billion pounds, matching analysts' expectations, boosted by growth at its investment banking business.

Rolls-Royce posted an 11.8 percent rise in profit to 285 million pounds beating forecasts of 271.75 million pounds. It said it expected to increase earnings in 2004 despite some challenging markets.

BT reported a 7% rise in Q3 earnings near the top end of forecasts, on a 2.6 percent decline in revenues. Underlying earnings per share rose to 4.4 pence for the three months with analysts forecasts at 4.3p.

lastminute.com posted a narrowing first-quarter loss, and said the second quarter had started well.

Centrica reported a 10.5% rise in annual earnings that met market forecasts, helped by strong growth at its North American operations. EPS rose to 16.8 pence from 15.2 pence, analysts had forecast of 16.9 pence.

Marconi said its Q3 loss widened slightly but that sales were still recovering. Its operating loss rose to 66 million pounds from 62 million and sales fell 11 percent to 408 million pounds

Glaxo, later.
ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

Alumasc (I), BT (Q3),  McBride Scottish & Newcastle (8 mths & 12 mths)

Barclays (F), Centrica (F), GlaxoSmithKline (F) London Bridge Software (F), Marconi Corp (F) Pendragon (F), Rolls-Royce (F), Unilever (Q4) , LastMinute.comBrewin Dolphin (AGM), Mitchells & Butlers (AGM)Q4 housebuilding data (09:00) Q4 ODPM housebuilding stats (09:00)

Analog Devices (Q1) Dell Computer (Q4) Safeway (Q4) NVIDIA (Q4)

13:30 Business Inventories 13:30 Initial Claims 13:30 Retail Sales 13:30 Retail Sales ex-auto

7.00pm Treasury Budget

 

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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little woman - 12 Feb 2004 11:41 - 13 of 44

I'm going to stick it out to see if it'll continue rising long term. By revising the stop loss to just under the highest S3 level, I'll keep a decent profit if it does drop heavily, but benefit if it doesn't. The trouble with some shares, is that they don't always drop enough to justify going back in at a later date!

stockbunny - 12 Feb 2004 11:56 - 14 of 44

Agreed and there must be people with stop-losses in place
currently I presume as there are sales going thru' as low
as 548p, presume the stop-loss is being triggered - shame
without that it could recover upwards...

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 12:12 - 15 of 44

People would not have had the chance to put new stop losses in place on the current price since I suspect most put them in like I do, based on the previous days close.

My stop loss is at 5.26 based on the S3 level of 5.29 from last Friday. Tonight I expect the S3 level to go up based on the closing price, and I'll adjust it tommorrow based on that.

Stockbunny, I am presuming you know what S1, S2 & S3 are?

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 12:24 - 16 of 44

There goes GSK. Sold my long term holding a loss, but will buy back once the dust settles.

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 12:34 - 17 of 44

Sorry to hear that little woman. I liked GSK, same as you.
This is what I was worried about on GSK which is why
I switched from holding to scalping on it.

1150p support should have held longer than this. As I posted a few
days ago, if 1150 goes then there is a real danger of seeing
1000p again if the FTSE retraces.

The generic competition seems to be spooking the holders.
The Paxil generic competition won't do a lot for SKP's share price
either, imho. Paxcil Cr is a big part of SKP.

Melnibone.

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 12:45 - 18 of 44

GSK keeps trying to pull back, but is not holding. I was looking at the heat map for the FTSE100 and there is a huge range from RR which is 12% up through to GSK which is 6% down. The question is whether the shares currently up will pull back and to push the FTSE100 down even more.

Fundamentalist - 12 Feb 2004 12:52 - 19 of 44

LW/Melnibone - made a nice profit on gsk short and am looking to open another long again. I agree with your comments re: SKP. I have a fairly large holding in my ISA, but will continue to hold till results - hopefully we will get Depomorphine announcement the share needs to give it another lift

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 12:59 - 20 of 44

GSK will bounce around now as daytraders have fun and longer
term Bulls or Bears use the price action to sort out their positions.

Ref. FTSE, I'm sticking with my other posts in that iaw my swing
charts the FTSE is currently range trading between two swing lows
of circa 4330/4430 with the 60Day EMA of 4410 acting as a pivot
point at the top end of the range. A good break of these levels, that is led
by the US markets, will give short term direction.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 13:04 - 21 of 44

Nice calls, Fundamentalist.

You seem to be using GSK as a trading vehicle to good effect.
Told you it was more satisfying trading them rather than holding
them.:-)

GSK's price of 11 gives it a nice tight % spread.

Melnibone.

ThePlayboy - 12 Feb 2004 13:33 - 22 of 44

345/50k jobless exp



363k act fig

retail sales worse down .3

stockbunny - 12 Feb 2004 14:00 - 23 of 44

Taken ages to get back into traders room for some reason,
loading slow - no doubt my machine...

LW No I'm none the wiser (not unusual - all ears no brain! lol)
not familiar with S1 etc...

Wonder what the DOW will do on opening...any ideas?

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 14:11 - 24 of 44

Stockbunny S stands for the support level which a share will normally get supported. (Its to do with Pivot Points - PP ) R are the Resistance levels.

If a share drops to S1 it will normally get support to stop it dropping any further. If it passes S1 it will get support again when it reaches S2. Very few shares pass S2, but those that make it pass S3 tend to keep falling, as all support has gone......... It works the opposite way for R1, R2 & R3, which why many people will purchase shares which have passed R3 on the grounds it will continue up.

stockbunny - 12 Feb 2004 14:18 - 25 of 44

Ah with you - I'm used to the support and resistance levels
but have never taken any notice of it being abbrev. Thanks!

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 14:29 - 26 of 44

I know what you mean about abbrev terminolgy # - I keep asking Playboy to spell out a lot of the abbrev. comments he makes - so I'm trying to use it so I can remeber it so I know what the traders are posting (especially over in the Traders room!)

little woman - 12 Feb 2004 14:54 - 27 of 44

I just closed my D4F account. They closed all my positions without telling me, and then informed me that because it was because I left less than $200 margin equivilent on the account. (So it's my fault for keeping my balance low) It wouldn't have been so bad, if they had closed one position (or part) to bring it in line - or even asked me to fund the account. But they closed everything. Of course its somewhere in the small print that they can do it. Well that me going back to old fashioned trading shares instead of CFD's.

ThePlayboy - 12 Feb 2004 15:01 - 28 of 44

Sorry to read that LW, your not the first and won,t be the last no doubt, try etrade Da imho, 3k to open!

Fundamentalist - 12 Feb 2004 15:18 - 29 of 44

tx melnibone - opened a long at 1103 GSK. You commented on SKP earlier - do you hold/trade them?

Also, anyone here trade GFRD (Galliford Try) - i say trade i have them as a long term investment. They've had a nice rise today and are starting to climb back to the levels they were at when ROK were trying to buy them - wonder if ROK are back or if there is another potential suitor?

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 15:36 - 30 of 44

Hi Fundamentalist,

I traded SKP up from their lows last year but left
them alone when they got to the 66/70p levels.

Too much jam priced in at that level for me with the
way they keep failing to meet profit estimates.

What they need to do is lower their estimates, along with
the share price, so then we can buy it again and profit
as they beat the lowered estimates. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 15:46 - 31 of 44

Sorry to hear you got closed out little woman.

I thought they were meant to phone you with a margin call?

I always keep a good margin spare so that I'm
in control. So if they ever manage to close me down it will
be due to a false spike.

Still checking out spreadbetting firms as a back up/alternative,
but spreadbetting margins seem to be variable, even on open
positions, so I'm being rather thorough in my research at the
moment.
I can see why a lot of spreadbetters, rather than CFD traders,
get wiped out.
It seems to need very careful position size management to avoid
stops being moved closer and activating on spikes.

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 12 Feb 2004 15:51 - 32 of 44

All the Indices seem to be comatose at the moment.

Waiting for Greenspan Part 2 ? :-)

Melnibone.
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