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Mum's gone to Iceland/Big Food Group (BFP)     

stockbunny - 27 May 2004 14:22

Ok so the figures sounded OK, but the share price today looks
very temptingly cheap - down to 93p last time I looked, it has
been up there 150p or so, and pays a divi.

So anyone hold these and if you do, what's your views?
I'll dig out the share price chart and paste it up in a mo..

daves dazzlers - 12 Jul 2004 12:18 - 13 of 193

have you all got your booker caeds now ?.
myself this my be another 12/18 wait , but we all have a decent price on it so lets go for the ride {bring back walker the talker].

stockbunny - 12 Jul 2004 14:02 - 14 of 193

No not yet - but I'm waiting on paper certificate etc so bound to take a while.

joehargan1 - 12 Jul 2004 22:42 - 15 of 193

I'm pleased to have intro'd Big Food onto the MTN thread but I was getting really confused about discount cards etc. Thanks for re-establishing this thread Stockbunny. Now on to BFP, undervalued and close to but not yet at bottom turn I think.. the TA indicates another drop today and balance of week as trend summary is 3 bullish to 13 bearish indicators (68% chance of a decline). If it hold above 80 pence as it should (by Thursday/Friday if trend is to be believed) then that's the time to add - it has lots of upside at this level and Booker will also see the benefit of a major cost overhaul in H2...not yet fully publicised.

daves dazzlers - 13 Jul 2004 08:15 - 16 of 193

joehargan 1,dont you think greener,grimsey,hoskins are doing a bad job.you need a retail man who knows this field.i would like to see,mike coupe/kevin loosemore given more freedom,in the boardroom.

torquay - 13 Jul 2004 14:52 - 17 of 193

This is a regular play
Have again gone long at 79p.

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 15:09 - 18 of 193

graph.php?size=Big&movingAverageString=%

I've been looking at this share, but merely because it's fallen.

I can't see the reasoning for buying, just yet, whilst the chart
still looks like this.
If you add in the margin squeeze, which will get worse with Morrisons
trying to compete with Tesco/Asda/Sainsburys, isn't there the possibility
that lack of profit growth may cause a problem with debt servicing in
the future?

Maybe folks are thinking of a takeover, but that shouldn't be the main
criteria for investing in a company.

Melnibone.

torquay - 13 Jul 2004 15:49 - 19 of 193

Re post 16:I use this share for scalping a decent share(loss for the loss to narrow).Bought at 78.98 earlier today sold for 80.75 although I,m still holding a spread bet.This is only one of a number as I only look for regular profits without in the main parting with any cash.
I have like others read many boards and see that having made a living for 30years out of the markets that I go against the trend,the fact that I do not use charts or any other technicals.

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 16:00 - 20 of 193

My post wasn't meant to imply any critism, torquay, sorry if
it gave offense.
I hope that you can see by the chart timescale that I was giving
a slightly longer term view than a scalp. :-)

Melnibone.

daves dazzlers - 13 Jul 2004 16:09 - 21 of 193

i feel this may go 70 pence or lower,time for a bottom feed and top up.

torquay - 13 Jul 2004 16:10 - 22 of 193

Melnibone:You did not offend in anyway,that's the problem with e-mails they can be interupted the wrong way.The point I was making that charts can(or for myself)bog you down(hindsight)they will never give you short-term gains even if the share continues to fall.With longer term views I find that you get the escalator effect and miss regular profits.

Melnibone - 13 Jul 2004 16:18 - 23 of 193

Agree with your escalator effect, torquay.

I tend to do my scalping on the more liquid large caps
and use midcaps for swing trades with the trend.

We all have our own methods that suit our own style and
risk level.
Glad you make money with yours. That's what it's all about.

Melnibone.

torquay - 13 Jul 2004 16:32 - 24 of 193

I'm the same,Melnibone 99% of my trades are ftse100,with these I like to obviously scalp but at the same time quite prepared to take onboard providing their divi is at least B/Society return.Might as well park and pound cost average a share that has potential to give a profit as well as the divi.
The banks especially(AL. HBOS)have 7-12p movements giving a 4-9p scalp

Torquay

SueHelen - 13 Jul 2004 23:07 - 25 of 193

For you guys (press mention in Today's Independent Newspaper) :

Investment Column: Steer clear of the Big Food Group

Edited by Stephen Foley
13 July 2004


If only mum would go back to Iceland. The frozen food chain, owned by Big Food Group, has been suffering as customers desert its frumpy old stores. While the management has been focused on turning some of its best sites into bright new convenience stores selling fresh fruit, veg and sandwiches, the older shops - on the evidence of yesterday's trading update - are fast going to rack and ruin.

The company has two answers: speed up the programme of refits; and replace the Iceland boss with a new man poached from Asda, with a brief to improve customer service standards across the 748 stores, not just the 40 refitted ones.

The company has two problems: it does not generate so much cash that speeding up the refits will be a financial breeze; and bigger competitors such as Tesco are steaming into the convenience market much faster than Iceland is managing. With Iceland sales down 1.7 per cent in the past three months, compared with the same period last year, the combative chief executive of BFG is going to struggle to turn the sales performance around any time soon.

And that is just Iceland. While the City's gaze has been fixed in horror there, the other main business - the cash and carry chain Booker - is starting to look troubled, too. Sales (excluding tobacco) are down 1.8 per cent, despite a push to link up with independent convenience stores, helping them rebrand as Premier shops and becoming their exclusive wholesaler. Booker's sales to caterers have been particularly poor and the company yesterday added Euro 2004 to the list of reasons, or excuses, which previously included the weather and the late Easter.

The Woodward food service business is growing fast, but it is still only a tiny part of BFG, and there will be no respite for the shares at least until sales growth is restored at Iceland. They have plunged since we said "sell" at 135p in April and now look cheap as a multiple of likely earnings this year. But earnings forecasts were cut again yesterday, and the dividend yield of 3.8 per cent doesn't suggest the stock is noticeably undervalued. Avoid.

stockbunny - 14 Jul 2004 11:13 - 26 of 193

stockbunny - 14 Jul 2004 11:15 - 27 of 193

Not bad today - it's the only rising share I have in a list of 21
so far today - time will tell I think...bit like the weather!

joehargan1 - 14 Jul 2004 23:26 - 28 of 193

Time to bail - I agree with SueHelen. This is going to fall further and break the current lower resistance points - I wouldn't get back in unless it drops to 70 p or under. TA is very negative.

seawallwalker - 15 Jul 2004 08:17 - 29 of 193

Sue Hellen is a very respected researcher in my book.

I bailed bar a 100 shares after the results for 1H.

Make you own mind up, but I agree with the above two comments.

stockbunny - 15 Jul 2004 11:24 - 30 of 193

Well I'll stay in for now - not because I think I know any better then
those who have posted above because I know I don't, I'll happily admit that.
I'll stay in because I sometimes invest on a contray basis/against the trend,
if my instincts tell me it may be worth doing, plus if needs be I can hold
them for as long as necessary and (importantly)my exposure financially is not huge in this stock. If it goes 'belly-up' which I don't believe it will, but
if it does, I can write it off - I wont enjoy doing so..but it can be done.
In short - what you say makes perfect logical sense, but I don't always
trade on logic alone.
(However anyone else reading this, follow the guys above not me!)

joehargan1 - 17 Jul 2004 22:28 - 31 of 193

Questor (today):-

Best to give perishing Big Food Group the cold shoulder

For investors, BFG has proved not so much of a Big Friendly Giant, more a Big Financial Grind. The acronym stands for Big Food Group, and the company owns the Iceland and Booker chains.



Bill Grimsey, who has been in charge at the company for three years, took on a mammoth task when he started at the business, and there's not much evidence that he's anywhere near the end of it. The company was chronically underinvested, and even though he's having some success refurbishing the Iceland stores, it's a race against time, because the ones that aren't refurbished are continuing to decline at a massive rate.

Iceland is also having problems in the competitive environment, with the takeover of Safeway by Morrisons and Sainsbury's coming under new management. These prompted yet another bad trading statement from the company earlier this week, which many interpreted as a profits warning. This is an occurrence with which shareholders are becoming familiar.

Booker is also struggling, as the figures this week showed. Analysts moved to trim their forecasts and few could see a bright spot at the end of the tunnel. Supermarket competition will increase, not decrease, and although the company is continuing with its refurbishment and cost-cutting plans, frozen food is becoming a less popular choice for many shoppers.

The shares, to be fair, don't look expensive at 82.5p this week, compared with well over 150p early this year and 346p in 2000. They trade on seven times forward earnings with a prospective 4pc dividend yield. However, there's no indication that the shares are out of the ice age just yet and they are best avoided.

daves dazzlers - 17 Jul 2004 22:36 - 32 of 193

joe,i will hold mine long term,by the time my oldest goes to uni,,,they mite be on 2.00.
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