overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
|
|
Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
|

parveen1
- 15 May 2005 23:19
- 13 of 1009
Fundy
how do you come to a fair price at 30p ?
maybe you need to explain your forecasts
we all know the fuel part of the business is higly profitable
this is from last year
Fuel Card business increases operating profit by 30%
Card base grows 6%
we also know that new cards being issued are at record levels and the aussie fuel prices are at record levels.
ok maybe the CNP is not growing as fast as YOU want. (48% increase in Card Not Present transactions last year)
Their own brokers have put a target price of 36p and we know how conservative they have been in the past, last 2 years we have had 2 profit upgrades
so all in all its a very bright picture.
IMHO, I feel that a few people have offloaded their shares and are trying to ramp the share down for their own gain, ie trying to get back in at a much lower price.
Thers's been some more stakebuilding in the last week or two. Maybe someone may decide to bid for the company sooner or later
I'm LONG on these as you probably already know ,in for the 1 whenever it happens 1-2-3 years, there's no hurry.
A
Fundamentalist
- 16 May 2005 00:11
- 14 of 1009
Parveen
this was my view just after the last set of results (copied from old thread). My concern is that despite the continued talk of high growth and hence a high PE being fair, the turnover growth last yr was only 5% and hence most of the profit increase was generated via cost savings/higher fuel prices and not organic growth of the business - yes transactions are growing at a fast rate but this is not translating to higher turnover and hence profits
I dont see any reason to change these forecasts as to me the AGM statement was completely neutral. The only interesting fact is the continuation of institutional buying over the last few months.
Fundamentalist - 01 Mar'05 - 12:09 - 2172 of 2369 edit
Just been trying to extrapolate these results (back of a fag packet job)forward to this time next year based on the following assumptions (best conservative guess)
fuel business grows by 10%
cnp turnover increases 10% assume 50% goes straight to bottom line
cp turnover decreases 20%
consultancy business breaks even
This arrives at the following:
Turnover 33.6m
Op Profit 8.5m
ammortisation 1.4m
exceptionals nil
interest 0.2m
PBT 6.9m
tax 2.3m
profit 4.6m
basic eps 1.58p forward pe 20ish
adj eps 2.06p forward pe 15ish
these were based on the following from the results:
Business breakdown:
Fuel card:
turnover up 10% to 14.0m
op profit up 31% to 6.8m
Antifraud:
turnover up 2% to 16.2m
op profit up 9% to 1.5m
Consulting:
turnover down 10% to 1.6m
op profit gone from break even to loss making
Edit - in response to your post re deramping to get in at a lower price if i thought it would have done any good i would have been flooding the boards lol. Any comments made on a BB arent going to move the share price. As for me - i continue to monitor as i do believe in the business model and the management, but at the moment, in the current market conditions (i am quite bearish overall) the numbers dont provide enough upside for me
daves dazzlers
- 16 May 2005 07:40
- 15 of 1009
Well good morning all holders,ever hopefull of being aboard the good ship rtd.
parveen1
- 16 May 2005 09:44
- 17 of 1009
overgrowth
dd is being very hopeful
Lets see who wins this tug of war :)
at least all the retail investors seem to have had a mood change and buying back into RTD
amazing how sentiment changes in a space of a day
Fred1new
- 16 May 2005 10:30
- 19 of 1009
Fundamentalist
- 16 May 2005 11:12
- 21 of 1009
OG
some good points, i dare say my CNP transactions have grown similar amounts - its very rare i buy anything these days from the high street - far less hassle doing so from the comfort of the sofa and normally cheaper.
I hope you are right with the CNP income increasing substantially, I was just surprised how little the turnover increased in the last set of results despite all the new contracts that had been signed in the previous 18 months. Part of the problem with estimating the financial impact of the growth in transactions and new contracts is the values are never disclosed - ie is it a fixed price, a certain amount per transaction or a combination and at what levels
Parveen
do you have a fundamental basis to back up 45p?
parveen1
- 16 May 2005 11:32
- 22 of 1009
i don't Fundy
Im just going along with the tipsters
parveen1
- 16 May 2005 11:37
- 23 of 1009
1.45m buys to 50k sells
Fundamentalist
- 16 May 2005 11:51
- 24 of 1009
Interestingly, according to another BB the writer of the FSL tip is Tom Bulford. He is the editor of RHPS - whose last view on RTD was to sell - on that basis wouldnt be a big surprise to see a buy tip from RHPS in the near future - pure specualtion of course
parveen1
- 17 May 2005 11:15
- 27 of 1009
Looks like an order for 1 Million shares from yesterday has now been completed
Fundamentalist
- 17 May 2005 21:25
- 28 of 1009
This was posted on another bulletin board today - Zak Mirs latest TA view on RTD from iii website
Retail Decisions (RTD):
Having interviewed and written about the company at least a couple of years before the latest irritating chip and pin credit card craze, I have been expecting the share price of Retail Decisions to finally have their day in the sun. This was especially seen in the final quarter of last year. But so far this year the stock seems to have dithered somewhat and it may be that there is still a little weakness to come. The favoured zone as far as support is concerned is that old February 2004 resistance at 26p and the 200 day moving as well. But bargain hunters may be ready to wait for a bottom of price channel dip at the March 2004 support line running through 21p. Given how volatile the shares have proved to be over the past few years, it may very well be that the low 20p's are a safer place to go long
Seems a bit wishy washy to me - i can see it falling back to the 200ma (26p ish) without further news but would expect the bottom to need to fall out of the market to see low 20s
Fundamentalist
- 17 May 2005 21:56
- 30 of 1009
OG
re: cybersource - how much was it up and any reason why??? (sorry feeling lazy tonite lol)
Fundamentalist
- 17 May 2005 23:45
- 32 of 1009
Thanks OG
just had a look myself - it opened up flat and was creeping up when at 12.00 it jumped up a lot then continued to creep up to the close.
it appeared tech stocks were generally higher in anticipation of hewlett packard results and new ceo statement, due after the bell - dont think this would explain 11% rise though