ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

stockdog,

I can do - it is the link in post 1307 that is increasing the width.

marketmaker,

Do you mind if I edit your post to just a 'click here' for the link?


Ian

Many thanks, Ian

Topped up an extra 25k :)

Well done, MM, obviously a firm believer. I'm still in, although a little lighter than I was at one stage. Want to hear that the warehouse is up and running in good form.

SD

Stockdog, I sent an e-mail enquiry on Monday to joannem@asos.com (Press and Media Relations) to enquire if the new warehousing situation was on target but as yet no reply. Maybe if one or two other posters did the same, there might be something forthcoming.

I think that, with the target date end of May for it to be operational, there won't be much official response on any deviation from that plan just yet awhile, even if true. I will ask near end of April.

SD

Given that the chavs are in the ascendency, it could be worth looking at a possible new rival: www.cheapdesignergear.com

Can't find anything out about them for now apart from they are going to be offering everything from Prada to Stone Island. Got to admit it has more of a ring to it than ASOS.

DYOR

Two pubs in a road concept still works for me. With another entry to the market, this could reinforce the habit and draw in less up to the minute custommers in classic second wave.

Strange thing is the names! Asos is ok but cheapdesignergear is what people want these days. And only the Internet can offer that to them!!

I admit I know nuffink abaht yoof anymore.

Not sure the competition would be up to competing with ASOS. The nature of a growth market is typically lots of smaller firms being attracted into it by the supernormal profits of the market leaders. The problem with this is that many new entry firms have difficulty competing with what is already established. All the problems, such as logistics and stock, encountered by ASOS are part of the growth process whereby they seek to ameliorate these issues in order to increase revenues and lower costs. Rival entrants into this market would not only have to encounter and deal with these problems also, but would have to do so whilst competing against a slightly more mature company with invaluable market knowledge, economies of scale and an established consumer base.
Despite this, it is altogether healthy, and inevitable, that the success of ASOS encourages others to compete. Competition breeds innovation and we are thus likely to see improved products and wider niche's exploited by ASOS in trying to maintain their position as one of the top online retailers. It will be interesting to see the management's reaction.

Thanks, tau, for your thoughtful commentary.

SD

Thanks also, tau. Not sure anyway it is the same market image. Cheap designer clothes may not bring the up-market young ladies, whereas they are clearly attracted to the as seen on approach. Traffic remains healthy with March in line with October which was already into the Christmas season and way up on last year. Can't see the new warehouse as a major issue - the problem was operating from 4 warehouses in the Christmas season. These people know what they are doing so a new warehouse is all in a day's work. The next key event is the Q4 trading statement. We already have the forecast: volume will be way up because of the extended sale period but margins well down; hopefully margins will have recovered during March. Hopefully, too, there will be a more positive statement about trading in Q1.

My view is we will see a minimum pbt of 2M in 2005/6 or a pe of 17.5 on an sp of 50p. We should then see an analyst forecast, reflecting the improved margins from the new warehouse, of 4M in 2006/7. There would be good justification for the pe to move back to 35, implying an sp of 1. Not sure the shorters have closed their position although there doesn't appear to be new money; not much more to go for. I am opening a new CFD position for 20,000 shares.

Eric

Topped up and tucked a few more away this morning ..... lovely jubbly!

Makes sense, marketmaker. sp on the move. It will be interesting to see whether there is renewed shorting sales. Either they need to sell more or they need to buy back and the sp will rise to a more reasonable level. Suspect the tide has turned, triggered by my buy on Friday! lol!

Eric

saw that 20k - you did move the market ... i know that much!

lovely 150K and 100K buy trades at the close of play - supports view that the tide has turned and the price will be moving UP UP UP!!!

2 * 200K BUYS also reported - looking stonking for tomorrow....!

marketmaker

Do you actually make the market - otherwise how do you know they are buys? The spread at 16.04 was 52.5p to 54p and the trades were done at the midpoint 53.25. Shown on MoneyAM as sells but I suspect they were more likely to be buys; unlikely to get such a good price for a sell unless the MM are keen to get some stock in which would be positive anyway. EK still has his short position open, so he says, but no evidence in the trading pattern. Its worth watching though. May be an RNS this week. I'll build the position if SEO continues its ascent but I nearly got myself in trouble last week for failing to keep an adequate cash margin (CFDs).

Eric

Evening Eric

You are proving somewhat elusive!!

Still catching up! I think this coming week will prove somewhat decisive for ASC in the short term. The SP clearly has some support at 50p, but I am somewhat nervous about chart. Pretty inconclusive at the moment and it could still go either way. If the 50p level is breached, I think I may hedge and go short as I believe 40p will be the next stop.

Regards

PTH