Another newcomer to the main market...anybody any idea what the production figures are ?

very good article in Sunday Times on this proposed merger ..... if it actually happens, though there is no reason why it should not, then "The tie up would put the combined group at the forefront of one of the world's last undeveloped oil regions ....... increase production from today's 100k bopd to 1m bopd by 2012".

lets hope us HOIL holders are rewarded as a result on the combined assets and the increased cash input and that there is no dilution...we don't want to get shafted on this one!

huge and important RNS just out - see Newswatch

Confusion reigning at the moment but its as SB called it here in this post...



sportbilly1976 - 9 Jun'09 - 07:48 - 4353 of 4379


before:

mkt cap 1.5bln, shares in issue: 257mln - share price 5.83

now;

mkt cap 3.7bln, shares in issue: 520mln - share price 7.11

very simplistic, but this is where it should come back... :-))

7.11p per share on relisting.

The stock is trading at the mo at a big discount but that wont last long after the conference call this morning.

certainly a very muted response at the moment, but it all looks pretty complex to me, but then i'm a simpleton ...... would certainly expect some decent press/analyst coverage in next 48 hours, and cannot imagine it will be less than positive

Conference call in next hour cyners, should sort it.

Not sure when it goes into FTSE 100 though..... thats the biggy with trackers having to buy.

i suspect next rotation is still a couple of months away

now need DGO and PCI to get their running shoes on!

This is how I now see it cyners....

Further news from reuters.....

UPDATE 2-Heritage Oil to merge with Turkey's Genel
09 Jun 2009 - 08:38

* Heritage to merge with Genel Energy

* Creating Kurdistan focused oil company

* Shares rise 1.5 pct as suspension lifted

(Adds background, detail, share rise)

By Tom Bergin

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - UK-based oil explorer Heritage Oil said on Tuesday it had entered a preliminary deal to merge with Genel Energy International, a unit of Turkey's Cukurova Group, creating a Kurdish-focused group worth around $5.5 billion.

Heritage said in a statement that the deal would be structured as a takeover of Genel by Heritage, whereby Heritage paid with shares and Genel investors end up with around 50 percent of the enlarged group.

Heritage's shares, which were suspended last week after the company said it was in merger talks, traded up 1.5 percent at 597 pence at 0710 GMT.

Chief Financial Officer Paul Atherton told reporters on a conference call that Genel was worth around $3.3-3.6 billion, which compared with Heritage's market capitalisation of $2.4 billion before the talks were announced............ ENDS


So in effect HOIL worth $2.4 billion before merger, merger created group worth $5.5 billion therfore as a % pre merger HOILS stake 43.6%, post merger HOIL now 50% therefore 6.4% premium and a listing on the FTSE 100 which gurantees trackers have to buy in.... result SP is way undervalued at present market price.

Really flying now !.

Yep just needed a kick up the jaksy.

Broker analysis BEFORE todays news..... must be upgrades going on right now....

Heritage Oil Ltd

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon [R]
05-06-09 BUY -38.71 -15.19 -32.37 -12.70

Evolution Securities Ltd
04-06-09 BUY -43.63 -16.11 -44.73 -16.54

Canaccord Adams
04-06-09 BUY -23.33 -9.12 -21.48 -8.36

Oriel Securities
03-06-09 BUY

Tristone Capital
01-06-09 MPER -22.00 -32.00

Hanson Westhouse
16-12-08 BUY

2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus -33.68 -16.11 0.00 -33.33 -16.54 0.00
1 Month Change -33.68 1.38 0.00 8.44
3 Month Change -33.68 -16.05 0.00 -5.75


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS % % %
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA -22.60m m m

EBIT -24.21m m m

Dividend Yield 0.00% % %

Dividend Cover x x x

PER -59.11x -36.31x -35.37x

PEG f f f

Net Asset Value PS -12.77p p p

glad the old bald bastard called one right eventually

First new broker note out from digital look...

09-Jun-09 Heritage Oil HOIL Panmure Gordon Buy 619.00p 500.00p 700.00p

700p new sp target.

Good to see you posting regularly goldfinger, I missed you.

Realistic price target short term imo.

Next year post financing will be a different ball game.

Nice to see you aswell......


INSTANT ANALYSIS: Heritage bound for the FTSE 100 after this deal
9 June, 2009 01:26:13 PM


The former oil minnow is in the process of completing a transformational deal that should eventually catapult it into the FTSE 100 alongside Tullow and Cairn. This is a deal that will see investors' holdings significantly diluted with merger partner Genel's parent, the Turkish conglomerate Cukurova taking a 50% stake in the enlarged company. The deal, a reverse takeover, is being financed in entirely by paper. Genel boss Mehmet Sepil will be chief executive, with Heritage boss Tony Buckingham taking the role of executive chairman. The City seems to like the deal, with the shares marked up sharply. Panmure was the first to give its opinion rating the Heritage a buy with a 700p a share price target. The broker says: 'There is one area of concern for us in this deal in that it increases the assets held within Kurdistan where there appear to still be a few arguments between the KRG and the main Iraqi government in Baghdad over the legitimacy of these licences. However, we believe that this appears to be gradually getting resolved with the start of exports from Tawke and Taq Taq fields and that issues over the payment of revenues to the contractors will also be resolved in due course.'

EVO TAKE Heritage is set to merger with Genel Energy, a privately held Turkish company, that should see consolidate its position in Kurdistan and have sufficient cash flows from production to fund the Ugandan project.

DETAILS Under an MOU Heritage is to issue 260m new shares to Genel Energy in exchange for Genel injecting its assets in Kurdistan into Heritage. Genels primary producing assets are the Taq Taq (44%) and Tawke (25%) fields with a further 25% in the Miran West licence. The combined enlarged group has an estimated 300m boe of proved and probable reserves. Production from these assets is currently averaging 30,000bbl/d and should reach 43,000bbl/d by YE. The cash flow generated should enable expansion of operations both in Kurdistan and Uganda.

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION Based on the CPR report for Addax and other industry sources we estimate that in Kurdistan the 2P reserves for the new company are worth around US$8.5/bbl. Applying this figure to our model and adjusting for the news shares gives a fair value of 913p. We set our new target price at 900p.

i expect things will take a few days to settle down as both PIs and institutions take stock of the situation and position themselves accordingly ..... certainly i do not see much if any downside from the current level of +/-610

Nope was more or less thinking the same.

SP should move slowly but surely north as value is realised.

hehe this guy and his buddy Tim Spicer were lucky to get out of Moresby alive; now they could probably pay cash for the country...

looks as though buys + sells are pretty much even, the former even outnumbering the latter, so guess MMs just shaking out some stock (560) ..... good time to buy in if you don't already hold