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John

betfair ok my end


hope you havent backed schalke - gone 1-0 down - just taking a quick look at tonights footie - both newcastle and middlesborough both look a bit skinny to me

Just a small bet on the draw at Half time Steve.

See AZ Alkmaar (who!) were 50.0 when 1-0 down, now 2-1 up and 1.06

Been in town all day with the metropolitan police!! Fortunately nothing dodgy just with the gaming and vice guys. They learnt a lot about gambling and I learnt a lot about prostitution!!

Any how, I was on the AZ Almaaar match on the way home so a good start to the evening.

I actually think both matches look interesting but have some downside. Newcastle are already leading 2-1 so don't need to score but had a excellent win over the weekend so spirits will be high.

Middlesbrough really need to score to kill off any hopes of a Grazer qualification so of the two you would think the second is more interesting but both have good motivations for home goals.

Newcastle winning - game should be over

Boro losing - game on

Scrip

good to hear that you and the met are learning from each other.

On the AZ Alkmaar game - when did you get involved - at 1-1 or 2-1?

I had the game earmarked as there was a massive gulf in class between the two teams. I arrived late to it though but Aachen were in the lead so I laid them on the basis that AZ were definately going to score at some point. Wasn't my initial game plan but I thought the odds were way too short on Aachen.

After yesterday's course, I followed the Middlesborough game with a 1 per tick approach if an opportunity arose.

I switched on when the game was already 1-1. I sat watching the odds and after 35 minutes I thought about backing the draw at around 3.6 as the price was moving in at a fair rate. I didn't act because, as Scrip stated, there is a two-edged risk from either side scoring, but watched. As half-time approached the draw odds fell quickly to 2.9. 5 minutes into the second half, they were 2.4. This seems a quick decay overall but maybe Scrip can comment. It may be because Middlesboro' didn't need the second goal and were stifling the game.

Anyway, a bit later Boro did score so I got onto the home win at 1 per tick at 1.16 (72 mins) after Boro got a free kick which lead to a booking. At 100 liability, I was looking for a rapid fire close. I was not impressed then when the price drifted out a couple of ticks and I didn't get filled for a good 5 minutes!

Anyway, it was a 1 tick green-up (1) but I think I was exposed for too long risk-wise. For some reason, a lot of layers piled in at 1.16 and 1.17 after me.

To put this into perspective, I played an hour on the Betfair poker limit tables (Hold em 2/4 level) and made 130. The crossover point is some way off for me!

Bones, it's because the odds were very short on Middlesbrough already so the decay would be very slow.

Scrip, when I use the refresh script I have a problem when I leave the screen. If I read your notes right, I have to refresh in IE to clear the script. When I refresh in IE, it then takes about a minute to reload the Betfair home page (it always take a minute for Betfair to load up compared to 5 seconds for any other website). It is very laborious when that happens when I leave the betting page. Is there something I'm doing wrong?, ie a way of moving between pages without an interminable reload wait?

I think you are using the Gruss script?

Just hit CTRL&N to fire up another browser window and the refresh on the new window will not be apparent.

You only need to use the fast refresh where you need "streaming" prices. Else you can navitage without it. Once you navigate away from the page you were refreshing the refresh is no longer active I think.

I have cracked it, just won on the FTSE hourly, now what shall I buy with the 8p I won ???

Well done Spaceman - you can put it with my 9p I won on Middlesborough last night!!

Thanks Scrip, I'll try it out later.

whyallasteve, if we carry on like this in a couple of weeks time we will be able to buy a cup of tea to celebrate.....

So that's where my 9p went.

D

Afternoon everyone,

For cricket enthusiasts out there S.Africa are currently 1.01/1.02

Zimbabwe won the toss and chose to field. SA are presently 70+ for no loss. This is an excellent chance to lay SA with minimal loss. I would expect SA to win comfortably but as soon as a few SA wickets fall the odds will lengthen.

Bakko

be careful - they were only 1.05 at the start of the match so there will be very little upside if any

Thanks Fundy,

Luckily, I managed to lay off at 1.01 so only looking for a couple of ticks

Scrip - Have you any stats on footie 'correct score' odds. I've been doing some back testing over last week ref 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 score. I note with great interest how dramaticly the odds fall as the game progresses, ie the man/u v milan game, at ok the 0-0 odds were 7.8/8.2 after 75 mins with no score the odds were down to 1.65/1.8.(some profit!) (some risk also!) I've concluded that the best 'bet' is to back the 1-1 score n green up after the 1st goal is scored, for an approx 90% profit! even if no goal is scored the odds still fall! (all imho - dyor)...
Good luck if your on the horses this pm......