ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

2 * 200K BUYS also reported - looking stonking for tomorrow....!

marketmaker

Do you actually make the market - otherwise how do you know they are buys? The spread at 16.04 was 52.5p to 54p and the trades were done at the midpoint 53.25. Shown on MoneyAM as sells but I suspect they were more likely to be buys; unlikely to get such a good price for a sell unless the MM are keen to get some stock in which would be positive anyway. EK still has his short position open, so he says, but no evidence in the trading pattern. Its worth watching though. May be an RNS this week. I'll build the position if SEO continues its ascent but I nearly got myself in trouble last week for failing to keep an adequate cash margin (CFDs).

Eric

Evening Eric

You are proving somewhat elusive!!

Still catching up! I think this coming week will prove somewhat decisive for ASC in the short term. The SP clearly has some support at 50p, but I am somewhat nervous about chart. Pretty inconclusive at the moment and it could still go either way. If the 50p level is breached, I think I may hedge and go short as I believe 40p will be the next stop.

Regards

PTH

hi PTH. Welcome home; home is where your heart is; home is where ASC is. Well, ASC has been a bit of a paionful journey that I could have done without. Sold my original holdings out before they came down thorugh the 70p support level but took longer to close the CFD positions and then re-opened them too soon aound 60p before being forced out by red paint across the board a month or so ago. Just rebuilding the position though not so aggressively because I rank ASC as merely a 3-bagger this year against the greater potential of SEO , CFP and NML. However, I feel a change of sentiment - a decent movement on relatively low volumes; the key difference is that there has not been shorting activity. It may be that there will be such activity during the week but I think that is a risky activity. There should be a trading statement this week or next. I believe it will be popsitive bvecause, whilst there is still the new warehouse to come next month, that is not a big deal and the indications are that trading volumes remain buoyant and the marging problems will be behind them. I am not 100% confident in that statement but I do beleive the upside to downside potential is at least 5:1 in the next few months and those are decent odds.

Eric

ASOS have not been offering their next-day delivery this month.

I wonder if they are moving warehouse early? Now the year end is over, it may be that they are moving out of the three extra smaller warehouses into the new large one first before the big push to take the main warehouse stock over in May. Just a thought. I would expect a trading update or early results soon after the move is completed and it is running smoothly.

Hard to predict the bottom for the share price, but I've no doubt that today's levels will seem like a bargain come results in 2007

Also, the number of items under the 'amazing offers' in the 'clothing' section (i.e. the clearance items) has reduced from 300 two weeks ago to just 90 today. Looks like they are finally beginning to clear the clearance...

Helpful posts, wjordan. I suspect the time comes when it is best to stop promoting sale items because of the law of diminishing returns. How do you rate the newer offerings?

Last year there was a trading statement on 14th April which gave the management accounts for the year and reported on current trading. That suggests a staement within the next week. Your warehouse view sounds likely and I would hope for something encouraging about prospects. Traffic volumes have held up well and I think are not far short of double a year ago. That ties up with internet trading figures generally. If there is good news then the sp could move quite quickly as short positions are closed - the Evil team must have built up a fair old volume and the MMs are unlikely to allow them buy back time at this sort of price. Could be interesting!

Eric

Indeed.

At the moment I just watch and wait. If we do see the price go down to 40p I'll be buying a lot more.

Hi All

News has Fidelity International holding 4% ASOS

Ruthie

Fidelity increasing their stake by 1,000,000 shares

Nearly as many as Eric now! Bet they were silly though and bought the shares full cash instead of using CFD's! LOL :)
SD

Bad dog

Fidelity have a reputation to maintain ie they don't tend to do silly things is my point. ;)

Ruthie

I closed my short, and am now looking for the upturn - not quite yet though, look for mid-May when I expect to be going back into ASC

Are results due in May?? hope they are good as I'm well down on these.

Minx, moneyplus.

Year ended 31st March. I assume that Minx is basing his timing on the new warehouse going live in May. ASOS have been unusually quiet - licking their wounded pride? When you have had a year of terrific growth and success, galling to have to give a profit warning. Considerations as I see them:

(1) The problems were of a one-off nature as they failed to cope with the volumes at Xmas due to splitting stock over 4 warehouses and failing to bring some lines to market at all during the season. Apparently, the systems couldn't cope either as they can no longer have had visibility of their stock. This led to high sales in Jan and Feb but low margins. These problems are clearly in the price.

(2) What is happening? First, enquiries are holding almost at the level of the Xmas season based on the Daily Reach figures; approx. 200 per million. Chartis update on post 1139. It would seem reasonable to assume that spring trading is going very well. Obviously this is too late to affect 2004/5.

(3) ASOS have been in the habit of giving a trading report on a quarterly basis. So we might expect preliminary figures for alst year from amangement accounts during April together with a trading update. I would expect this to include some encouraging news.

My assumption is that the Xmas trading problems were a blip on a rapidly increasing trading and eps profile. Interested that Minx has closed his short although there has not been sign yet that Evil has closed his. Probably a good buying opportunity. My problem is my overweight position in SEO so my holding in ASC is currently just average. We need to watch this share closely.

Eric

I think you are absolutely right Eric. Although the chart remains in a downtrend, the SP has bounced twice now from Support at 48p. Although an indicator that gives the most false signals the 10MA has once again intersected a rising SP. But of most interest, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing indicating an imminent move, and from the MACD perspective, there is clear evidence of a Bullish Positive Divergance, (the most reliable MACD indicator), and a Bullish Moving Average Crossover, (albeit just). We only need a Bullish Centreline Crossover and all three indicators will be present. This is certainly not a stock I would want to be shorting at the moment. However, if the SP dips below 44p, all bets are off.

Regards

PTH

From the chart, it's not time to buy yet at all. The SP and the 25dma and the 50dma have all struck decisively down through the 200dma in sheer southerly formation.

I would wait until SP breaks up through at least 25dma, probably 50dma and possibly also the 25dma through the 50dma before sniffing at taking on more stock (you know how us dogs like to sniff the bottom of the market, he he!). To be sure, to be sure, to be sure as our friends in Dublin might say, wait for all three to break up through the 200dma with all four heading north again!

I continue to hold (having reduced a little at the 58p level a few weeks ago).

SD

Peter

Personally, I prefer to link consideration of the charts with teh fundamental position. In the new year the sp was on a demanding rating which was OK whilst the upward trend remained. The January trading positions showed a drop in margins in Christmas trading which started the weakness which turned into a slide with the profit warning on 3rd March; the share became a shorters paradise, led by Evil. As you say, the market has found a support level at around 48p. Could the breakout from the current level be down? Unlikely as the cap is down to 35M. Whilst this is a pe on the forecast figures of around 30, this is likely to drop to around 15 in the current year, given the growth in trading volumes and prospective improved margins based on a single warehouse. There has been a hiccough in this success story but there is no reason to beleive that it is anything else.

Eric

SD


There may well be a little more time to sniff out the bottom, but I think you are wrong in that 'it's not time to buy yet at all,' for the reasons I have already given. I only made a passing reference to the 10MA, which could break through the 200MA very quickly and by the time the 50MA gets there, you will have missed out on the bottom methinks! Each to our own SD, certainly more momentum and voulme is required before anything startling happens and that will only be driven by a touch of good news.

PTH

The potential problem for your tactics are that there could be a sharp reversal on good news. The chart not shown that I like to follow is that for momentum; this seems to have bottomed out and could well be turning positive. May be arguing against myself as I would like time to rebuild a decent position!

Eric