cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
Shortie
- 18 Oct 2013 16:27
- 13317 of 21973
By Vincent Cignarella One crisis has been averted, but another looms. While the eyes of the world have been on Washington, investors have all but forgotten a threat in Europe: any minute now, Germany's constitutional court could rule against the European Central Bank's bond-buying program. Last summer's announcement of the bond-buying program, called "Outright Monetary Transactions," and the subsequent message from ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank would do "whatever it takes" to save the euro, are widely credited as the beginning of the end of the European financial crisis. Most experts say a reversal by the German court is unlikely, but traders need to be aware of the possibility. Like the threat of a U.S. default, a refutation of the bond-buying program would be devastating for the global economy and would wreak havoc on financial markets. The euro would go into free fall and European debt yields would climb to dizzying heights, tipping the euro zone back into crisis. And all this could happen even though the ECB hasn't ever made use of the OMT. The very existence of the program, in which the ECB is authorized to make purchases in the secondary market of bonds issued by its member countries, has increased investor confidence in the euro zone and its debts. A German court decision that throws the program in doubt could erase that confidence in a heartbeat. It is important to keep in mind that the German court has no legal authority over the ECB and can't restrict its actions, but it does have jurisdiction over Germany's parliament, and it can limit the German government's participation in either the OMT or the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent firewall created to replace the two previous backstops, the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism. Funding for the ESM is capped at 700 billion euros (nearly $1 trillion). Germany is responsible for contributing about EUR190 billion by next April. That contribution is the maximum amount currently authorized by the German parliament. Part of the court's decision would hinge on whether the OMT will put the German taxpayer on the hook for more than parliament has agreed too. If so, the court could rule the OMT program is illegal and forbid the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, from participating in the program. That would mark an almost certain death for the OMT. To be sure, the majority of analysts believe the German court will allow the OMT to stand on the basis that EU treaty allows for purchases in the secondary bond market. They further argue that the court will preserve the program because it doesn't want to touch off the next financial crisis. I agree with the first point, but not the second. The court must follow strict constitutional law and cannot be swayed by concerns about the fallout from their decisions. Another possibility--and a way out of its dilemma--is the German court could pass the ball to the European Court of Justice based in Luxembourg. The European court is considered more likely to rule in the ECB's favor. Passing the decision to another court would buy time for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to muster support in parliament to increase the authorization if and when it would be needed. Her conservative parties fell short of a majority in elections held in September, and have entered into talks with the euro-friendly Social Democrats about forming a coalition. The most likely scenario is that the German court will allow the OMT to stand with some minor conditions that need to be approved by the parliament. Such a decision might harm the euro temporarily, but is far from the doomsday scenario that an outright rejection would bring. If the court allows the OMT to stand with minor tweaks, attention would quickly turn back to the U.S. debt crisis, which has only been temporarily resolved.
Chris Carson
- 18 Oct 2013 16:34
- 13318 of 21973
Bring it on, let's have some more bad news, markets would appear to like it and thrive on it :O)
Shortie
- 21 Oct 2013 10:49
- 13319 of 21973
Maybe worth a short.

cynic
- 22 Oct 2013 13:01
- 13321 of 21973
just banked a nice profit on my holding of the above ...... i think i'll prob tighten my stop on the other part and hope i have the discipline to stand by it
Shortie
- 22 Oct 2013 14:54
- 13322 of 21973
Pretty amazing run, hourly chart below shows very overbought.
Shortie
- 22 Oct 2013 15:40
- 13323 of 21973
Skinny any idea what the overnight dividend fee this week is?
skinny
- 22 Oct 2013 15:52
- 13324 of 21973
I seem to be short @6,713!
On edit - Yes its 7.09 points.
Shortie
- 22 Oct 2013 16:10
- 13325 of 21973
Thanks Skinny, so thats £7.09 in the pound running short. Might have to buy Tullett Prebon I think.
skinny
- 22 Oct 2013 16:11
- 13326 of 21973
I've closed some of the short, but I'm also long HSBA.
Shortie
- 22 Oct 2013 16:21
- 13327 of 21973
I'm going to run my shorts and just foot the dividend payment I think, Tullett Prebon will help, still debating HSBC and BAE longs to hedge..
Shortie
- 22 Oct 2013 16:30
- 13328 of 21973
Daily AAPL. looking overbought also.
skinny
- 22 Oct 2013 16:31
- 13329 of 21973
TLPR looks interesting - do you follow it?
Shortie
- 22 Oct 2013 16:34
- 13330 of 21973
On and off, I figured that due to the +2x dividend cover the sp should be fairly secure.
Shortie
- 23 Oct 2013 14:39
- 13331 of 21973
The U.K.'s benchmark stock index retreated from an almost five-month high on Wednesday, as mining firms tracked metals prices lower and GlaxoSmithKline PLC fell after reporting a drop in earnings. The FTSE 100 index lost 0.4% to 6,671.08, on track to break a nine-day winning streak. Shares of drug maker GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) gave up 1.3% after the company said net profit fell 12% in the third quarter, as sales to China were hurt by a high-profile Chinese-government investigation, alleging the company bribed doctors and others to sell more drugs. ARM Holdings PLC (ARMHY) lost 2.1% after UBS cut the microchip designer to neutral from buy on valuation. Mining firms also added pressure in London, as metals prices dropped across the board. Anglo American PLC fell 3.4%, Antofagasta PLC dropped 2.9%, Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) gave up 2.1% and BHP Billiton PLC (BHP) erased 1.7%. Stocks in London failed to get a boost from an upbeat assessment from the Bank of England, which lifted its growth forecast for the second half of the year. The central bank said in minutes from its policy-setting meeting earlier in October that growth in the second half would remain around 0.7% a quarter or a little higher, stronger than expected at the time of the August Inflation Report. In September, the BOE upgraded the growth expectations for the third quarter to 0.7% from the 0.5% forecast in August. The minutes also showed all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of keeping the central bank's interest rates and the asset-purchase program unchanged. Among other notable movers in the U.K., shares of Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS) dropped 2.3% after Citigroup reiterated its sell rating on the firm. Other banks in London were also on the decline, following European peers lower. The losses in the banking sector on the continent came as the European Central Bank said it will begin a thorough review of the balance sheets of 130 financial institutions in the euro zone in November, to unearth potential risks before moving closer to a banking union for the region. As part of the asset-review exercise, the ECB will ask these banks to set aside 8% of their risk-adjusted capital as a buffer against losses on loans and other parts of their balance sheets. Shares of Barclays PLC (BCS) shaved off 1.9%, Standard Chartered PLC eased 1.4% and HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) slipped 0.7%. Shares of Sports Direct International PLC added 0.7% after the sportswear retailer said sales for the nine weeks to Sept. 29 rose 15% and gross profit climbed 19%. Outside the main index, Home Retail Group PLC jumped 4.8% after the do-it-yourself retailer said pretax profit rose 53% in the first half of the fiscal year. Bank-note printer De La Rue PLC sank 9.8% after lowering its full-year operating-profit guidance. The company said "the continuing overcapacity in the bank-note paper market has led to a worsening pricing environment in the printed bank-note market." Premier Oil PLC dropped 4.5% after the oil and gas explorer lowered its full-year production forecast, blaming gas export issues in both Vietnam and the U.K.
Shortie
- 23 Oct 2013 15:51
- 13332 of 21973
FTSE 100 30minute
Shortie
- 24 Oct 2013 13:37
- 13333 of 21973
10 Minute FTSE
Shortie
- 24 Oct 2013 13:47
- 13334 of 21973
skinny
- 24 Oct 2013 20:25
- 13335 of 21973
Small short @6,726.7
Shortie
- 25 Oct 2013 09:04
- 13336 of 21973
I'm still running shorts, looking at Asia overnight a fall on the FTSE looks on the cards.