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RTD - Why? (RTD)     

Nitefly - 15 Sep 2003 10:55

Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Fred1new - 12 Jul 2004 22:55 - 1332 of 2406

My feelings about Management Buyouts is that they are generally below the real value of the company and that management is doing itself a favour not the shareholder who may have been funding the R+D of the company for a long time. The shareholders who bought in later at low prices may profit, but many longterm holders are cheated.

Fundamentalist - 13 Jul 2004 09:42 - 1333 of 2406

the last thing i want is a management buyout - they would take this private at about 25p, when in a few years time this will be worth substantially more than that imho. If id wanted 25p i could have had that earlier in the year!!!

blakester - 13 Jul 2004 21:40 - 1334 of 2406

If I only had....

Douggie - 13 Jul 2004 21:55 - 1335 of 2406

Me too

overgrowth - 13 Jul 2004 23:28 - 1336 of 2406

Comments from wombled on iii, to remind us that we really should still be quite bullish about RTD, despite the silly season market malaise setting in.

"I expect these shares to start moving from Aug onwards. As it stands RTD will enter tech100 index, first time since feb 01. This will initiate tracker fund purchases.

Secondly, interims out on 6th sept, RTD always has a good run leading up to results. Increased by over 30% during the lead up to interims in 2003."



Fred1new - 13 Jul 2004 23:34 - 1337 of 2406

I blamed Douggie for not going on holiday for the down movement in this share.







And all the other shares I am holding which at the moment seem to be going south for the summer!

Douggie - 14 Jul 2004 08:14 - 1338 of 2406

Fred1new...........so do I

so are mine :o\

Oakapples142 - 14 Jul 2004 08:43 - 1339 of 2406


You are not alone. My only hope for riches seems to be PDX where Directors keep buying shares

Douggie - 14 Jul 2004 19:18 - 1340 of 2406

thankfull for a green close today

Douggie - 16 Jul 2004 10:23 - 1341 of 2406

mornin all holding green but how long no buys yet today are we back down to 16p?

2Richard2 - 16 Jul 2004 10:30 - 1342 of 2406

Checked with comdirect a few minutes ago & the buy price was 17.87 - probably 50,524 buys in the sell column so far.

Douggie - 19 Jul 2004 08:53 - 1343 of 2406

Mourning all ... oh dear slipping away again!!!!!!!!!!!! ;o\

Fred1new - 19 Jul 2004 10:27 - 1344 of 2406

If!!! it gets to 15-16 would you buy some more??

Just looked at forecast of EPS of 1.5 p for 2005. On to-days P/E that would give a PRice of 19.5 - 20p per share.

Have I got my sums wrong or are there expectations of higher earnings forecast.

Looking at the charts I would also be happy to accept 20 p.

Any enlightment from Fundamentalist etc. would be valuable.

Fundamentalist - 19 Jul 2004 11:03 - 1345 of 2406

Fred

First question is which EPS are you talking about - are you using the basic or the adjusted EPS?

Last set of results gave a basic EPS of 0.5p and an adjusted (prior to ammortisation and exceptionals) of 1.4p. Hence on the basic EPS we are currently on a PE of 35.5.

The Daniel Stewart broker forecast I have seen is for a basic EPS of 1.06p. This gives a forward PE of 17. On a EPS of 1.5p we are on a forward PE of 11.4.

On the basis of the basic PE going from 0.5p to 1.06p, that is growth of 112% giving a PEG of about 0.15!

Personal expectations are that we will see an operating profit before adjustments of 7.0m this year. I expect ammortisation of 1.5m as per last year. The harder figure to quantify is the other exceptional costs, which last year amounted to 1m. This should be lower this yr (if any at all so i will include a figure of 0.5m, then this gives a PBIT of 5.0m. Interest of 0.5m gives a PBT of 4.5m and with a 30% tax charge a PAT of 3.2m.

This equates to an adjusted EPS of 1.86p and a basic EPS of 1.14p so a forward PE of 15.5 and a forward PEG of 0.12.

to put this into perspective, DATA is trading on a forward PE of 35 and doesnt currently make a profit.

All IMHO and DYOR

blakester - 19 Jul 2004 20:59 - 1346 of 2406

Fundamentalist - what does that mean in laymens terms?

Douggie - 19 Jul 2004 21:06 - 1347 of 2406

Fundamentalist well put........ what the .... does it mean? ;o\

blakester - 19 Jul 2004 21:20 - 1348 of 2406

I'm guessing your saying, "abandon ship"?

blakester - 19 Jul 2004 21:24 - 1349 of 2406

or

"abandon hope all ye who enter RTD"

Fundamentalist - 19 Jul 2004 21:27 - 1350 of 2406

Right Ill try again in plain english:

RTD last results had a basic EPS of 0.5p per share. this gives a current PE Ratio of 35.

Daniel Stewart expects a basic EPS this year of 1.06p per share giving a forward Pe Ratio of 17.

My calculations give a basic EPs of 1.14p giving a forward PE of 15.5

This compares to Datacash which currently is loss making though is forecast to be on a PE Ratio of 35 next year. You would expect similar business to trade on similar PE ratios though DATA is trading on double the forecast PE of RTD for next year which is purely numerical terms makes RTD look very cheap relatively.

The Pe Ratio a company can command tends to represent the predicted growth a company can be expected to deliver.

In real plain english - I still think RTD is cheap and is undervalued compared to its peers. When the market will put a fair value (imho) is questionable. Hence, I am still holding for the long term.

blakester - 19 Jul 2004 21:28 - 1351 of 2406

Ahhh....i see. Thank you kind sir :o)
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