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Negative ramifications of downward spiral could be considerable for oil sands and Canadian economy as a whole
NORVAL SCOTT

With files from Kevin Carmichael in Ottawa, David Parkinson and The Canadian Press

October 23, 2008

CALGARY -- The threat of a deeper recession triggered by the global financial crisis has pushed oil prices to a low not seen for 16 months, destabilizing the economics of new energy projects around the world.

Crude prices fell $5.43 (U.S.) to $66.75 a barrel yesterday - the lowest price since June 13, 2007 - after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said its oil reserves rose by 3.2 million barrels last week, well above industry expectations. The figures indicate slumping demand in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer.

The pricing fall comes even though the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will likely cut production at an emergency meeting on Friday. OPEC is expected cut its output by as much as two million barrels a day, a huge amount in historical terms, but the market doubts whether even a reduction of that magnitude would shore up sentiment.

"The worry is that what we're seeing in the U.S. will take place in the rest of the world too," said Bart Melek, senior economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns. "OPEC will no doubt respond, but it'll take some time for its cuts to have any impact."


If oil prices remain at these levels, planned projects around the world, including some in Alberta's oil sands, may be in jeopardy. Many newer developments in hard to reach areas are based on prices of at least $70 a barrel.'

These include projects in deep sea waters and the Arctic and, in many cases, are based on even higher oil prices.

Already, several Canadian companies including Nexen Inc., OPTI Canada Inc. and BA Energy Inc., have delayed or postponed the construction of new upgraders in the oil sands, reasoning that the projects are too expensive to proceed in the current environment.

Other projects, including Petro-Canada's $25-billion (Canadian) Fort Hills development, are also believed to be at risk. Analysts believe a long-term oil price of somewhere between $85 (U.S.) and $100 a barrel is needed to justify building an oil sands development including an upgrader now.

For the Canadian economy, the impact of the fall could be considerable. The commodity boom has helped offset the effects of weaker demand for Canada's manufactured goods by creating a windfall of wealth from its exports of oil and farm products. But the current decline in oil prices will reduce corporate profits and put strains on government coffers that swelled as the cost of crude surged to its peak of $147 a barrel in July.

The drop in the value of the loonie, which is tied to the price of oil, will also make imports more expensive, threatening to raise the cost of consumer goods when Canada is already in the midst of its weakest economic growth in 17 years.

But some argue that the fundamentals that drove oil to $147 - strong demand for crude from Asia, combined with an increasing scarcity of easy-to-develop crude - aren't about to disappear. Some analysts believe oil will find a floor at around its current levels, unless the global economy enters total meltdown.

"Is this [price] here to stay? Definitely not," said Martin King, a Calgary-based analyst for FirstEnergy Capital Corp. "OPEC will act to some degree, and the supply side is not going to be able to keep up. There's no bailout coming from non-OPEC production, and a [price rise] will come in a matter of months, not years."

Still, demand for gasoline in the U.S. is now down some 4 per cent from the same time in 2007, as consumers cut back on spending, leading to higher inventories and lower prices.

For Canadian companies, sluggish growth in global demand likely means a slowdown as new projects are pushed back, Mr. King said, adding that there could also be widespread layoffs.

Husky Energy Inc. chief executive John Lau said large oil companies with strong balance sheets will continue to develop oil sands projects, but smaller players may suffer.

"I'm quite sure major developers with deep pockets will continue to focus on oil sands development," Mr. Lau said. "Oil sands developments are very special projects. [But] in view of the high costs and also labour shortage, most of the of the small projects are facing a lot of challenges."

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose from a 16-month low as OPEC's president said that members had reached a consensus on the need to trim production and Iran said the cut may be as much as 2 million barrels a day.

There's no agreement on how big the reduction needs to be, the group's president, Chakib Khelil, told reporters in Vienna, where OPEC ministers arrived before a meeting tomorrow. Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said OPEC must ``balance'' the market, after prices tumbled 54 percent from a record in July.

``If OPEC makes a cut of 1 to 2 million barrels tomorrow, prices should firm up and move higher in the short term,'' said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Unless there is something huge announced, the market will eventually start moving lower again because of the weak economy.''

Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.06, or 1.6 percent, to $67.81 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $65.90, the lowest since June 13, 2007. Prices are down 21 percent from a year ago.

``Prices have fallen a great deal, so a gain should be expected,'' said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

Oil producers to slash output
11 hours ago

Oil cartel Opec has agreed to cut production in a move that is likely to halt the recent slide in UK petrol prices.

Members of the organisation decided to cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day from next month in an attempt to shore up sagging prices.

Explaining the reasons for the move, a statement read at the end of the meeting in Vienna said prices had witnessed a dramatic collapse unprecedented in speed and magnitude.

Crude oil has tumbled to less than 70 US dollars a barrel amid global recession fears - less than half the 147 dollar high seen in July.

That has led to falling petrol prices at UK forecourts. Supermarket giants Asda, Tesco and Sainsbury all announced a new round of cuts.

The retailers joined oil firm Total in slashing 3p off a litre of unleaded to take the price down to 94.9p. Morrisons is also cutting petrol costs.

The last time petrol was 94.9p at Asda was last October, and the supermarket said the announcement marked the third time it had cut its petrol prices in a fortnight.

But the decision by Opec ministers failed to halt the slide in oil prices on Friday. Light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange - the benchmark price - was at 64.51 US dollars, a drop of more than three US dollars in the session as global recession fears continued to depress world markets.

Oil prices had edged up from their 16-month low below 67 dollars a barrel to around 69 dollars ahead of Friday's meeting.

Motoring body the Automobile Association (AA) welcomed the latest price cuts, but warned that moves by Opec to slash production meant that the recent easing in petrol price could be brought to an end.

Drivers face rise in price of petrol
Motorists have been warned that the price of petrol could rise by up to 5 pence a litre after members of the OPEC oil cartel threatened to cut production.

By David Millward, Transport Editor
Last Updated: 12:44AM BST 24 Oct 2008

Russia is likely to join with OPEC in restricting supply in an attempt to drive up the cost of oil. This will lead to a rise in petrol prices just weeks after drivers finally began to see costs on the forecourt come down.

Over the last month motorists have benefited from the slump in world oil prices, following pressure from Gordon Brown on retailers to pass on savings to their customers.

But analysts now believe the end is in sight for drivers' recent honeymoon which has seen the cost of unleaded drop to less than a pound a litre .

OPEC production is almost certain to be reduced at the cartel's emergency meeting in Vienna today (Fri). As a result even the most conservative analysts expect a rise of $10 a barrel.

A two dollar increase in the price of petrol adds roughly a penny to the pump price, so motorists could face a five pence a litre rise by Christmas, experts have warned.

The rise - equivalent to another 22.5p on a gallon of petrol - means filling up an average family car, such as a Vauxhall Astra, will cost around 2.50 more at 50.

An AA spokesman said: "Our fear is that they will cut production to either hold prices where they are or start pushing them up.

"If prices do go up then people will be travelling less and have less disposable income for things like Christmas presents for their children.

"But the oil market is hostage to a number of things from political instability, the failure of a refinery or a natural catastrophe."

"I think OPEC will cut production," said Ray Holloway, director general of the Petrol Retailers Association.

"That and the fall in sterling means that forecourt prices could start rising in November and will remain high until the end of the year."

Having hit $147 a barrel in July, oil has been trading at less than $65 a barrel as demand has fallen amid fears of a global recession. Iran - one of the biggest OPEC producers - has already called for output to be slashed by two million barrels per day as they want the cost to rise to $100.

Mr Holloway's prediction for the OPEC meeting was endorsed by other analysts.

"From their point of view, OPEC members will have to increase prices," said Azfar Shaukat, director of oil and gas at consultants, Mott MacDonald.

"The price of oil has come down to a level that is not sustainable, especially given that during the middle of the year people were committed to projects that needed high revenue.

"We will see an increase and if I was to put my finger into the air, I would suspect it would be a figure of $75 to $80 a barrel.

"But it is a difficult market now and people don't want to be seen to be profiteering."

Mr Shaukat also believed that the prices could go even higher next year, with oil prices approaching $100 a barrel in the spring.

A similar view was expressed by David Smith, an analyst with Celerant Consulting.

"I am surprised that the Saudis haven't intervened more actively already," he said.

"It is pretty certain that they will cut production as they have enjoyed the benefit of high oil prices for some time.

"The more hawkish members will be determined to get prices up and I think many would be comfortable with prices at around $80 a barrel."

"But in the end you can't beat market forces, even though if there is some sabre-rattling, it will have an impact."

The only factor which could tie OPEC's hands is the fear that demand for oil would slump if it forces up the price too high.

At the same time petrol prices could also be forced up by the collapse of sterling against the dollar, which is the currency in which oil is traded.

This is not only bad news for the motorist, but the economy as a whole.

More costly fuel also pushes up the price of delivering goods to shops and supermarkets, which will add to inflation.

Despite accusations that retailers have been slow to pass on the full amount of recent price falls to motorists, the forecourt war has seen Sainsbury's announcing another cut, bringing petrol down to 94.9 pence, the same price as ASDA.

In addition ASDA promised that it would hold petrol down irrespective of the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna.

But this could be only short term relief for motorists, especially with growing fears that the Government could also be ready to impose the delayed two pence a litre increase in the fuel levy in April.

In July Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, bowed to pressure from motoring groups shelved the rise due to come into force at the start of this month.

But the collapse in oil prices has cost the Treasury dear in recent months.

Having enjoyed a 2.5 billion windfall in the first half of the year, when oil prices soared above the $84 a barrel it budgeted for, the slump means that revenue is now less than it predicted.

Motoring groups fear that this and falling pump prices may make the temptation to impose the levy irresistible.

The world is running out of oil....not.

smiler o---------'Over the last month motorists have benefited from the slump in world oil prices, following pressure from Gordon Brown on retailers to pass on savings to their customers'.

It was inevitable that petrol prices were going to fall as the ppb fell, Gordon Brown new this as did my aunt Muriel (92), he was trying to get the credit for it, another cheap shot from this shrewd cookie who sold our gold at the bottom, put us all in hock, reneged on his promise of a referendum, sold out to europe and shrewdly paid 100 for a haircut.
2517

Aye ;) , out of Interest what is the price down in sunny Cornwall, its 98/97 ish this End

NORTH WEST LONDON 98.9 TO 101.9P

OCTOBER 27, 2008 OPEC Cut to Be Felt Eventually

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' move to pump less oil in the presence of shaky demand growth will result in higher prices -- eventually.

For now, the cartel's decision Friday to trim 1.5 million barrels a day from its output target won't put the brakes on oil prices' nose dive, analysts said. The reasons have to do with oil-supply dynamics and global financial markets.

smiler o--------sorry for the delay in responding but not been near a petrol station 'till today, in not so sunny Cornwall (just) 99.9 & 102.9, robbin' b's, but just across the border in Devon 94.9.
2517

Thanks 2517, and yes they are : )

Oil falls below $65 on US contraction
By STEPHEN WRIGHT 3 hours ago

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) Oil prices slipped below $65 a barrel in Asia Friday, extending declines after data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the latest quarter, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged slump in demand.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down $1.44 to $64.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midmorning in Singapore. The contract overnight fell $1.54 to settle at $65.96. Oil prices have fallen about 55 percent since peaking above $147 a barrel in mid-July.

U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest barometer of a nation's economic health, shrank at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department said overnight. It marked the worst showing for the world's largest economy since it contracted at a 1.4 percent pace in the third quarter of 2001.

The negative cue provided by the U.S. data continued into Asian trade, compounding the pressure from a generally strong dollar, said David Moore, commodity strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Investors often buy commodities such as crude oil as an inflation hedge when the dollar weakens and sell those investments when the greenback rises. Oil investors have also been tracking equity indexes as a barometer of global economic health.

The euro eased to $1.2833 from $1.3181 in late Asian trade Thursday. The region's stock markets were mixed after a blistering rally the previous day with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down 1.8 percent and South Korea's benchmark index up 1.5 percent.

"The dollar has been relatively firm and that has taken some of the edge off the market. There's also the other issues that have been in the market for a while such as worries about demand and consumption patterns," Moore said.

"A further fall in the oil price cannot be ruled out. It is difficult to predict where the bottom could be," he added. "An important factor over the next few months will be whether OPEC can achieve its output cuts. If it can that will certainly tighten market conditions."

Last week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced plans to cut 1.5 million barrels of production per day at an extraordinary meeting in Vienna called to address plummeting prices.

Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez says that OPEC, which controls about 40 percent of world crude oil production, will need to cut production at least another 1 million barrels per day to boost falling prices.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 2.96 cents to $1.9545 a gallon and natural gas for December delivery was down 5.9 cents at $6.37 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, December Brent crude fell $1.41 to $62.30 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange

Oil prices rise as confidence improves
From correspondents in Singapore

November 03, 2008 03:50pm

+ -WORLD oil prices were higher in Asian trade today, mirroring gains in equity markets on improved investors confidence, dealers said.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for December delivery, advanced $US1.08 to $US68.89 a barrel from Friday's close of $US67.81 in the United States.

Brent North Sea crude for December delivery rose 60 cents to $US65.92 a barrel.

"Lately the oil markets have looked to the equity markets for implications to the macroeconomic outlook so there may be a bit of a bounce,'' said Victor Shum, a Singapore-based analyst with energy consultancy Purvin and Gertz.

Mr Shum said prices were likely to trade within the $US60-$US70 range with more downside bias seen as longstanding worries about the global economy remained on investors' minds.

"Downward volatility is still greater than upward volatility at this point,'' said Mr Shum.

"There is still a lot of concern about the impact of economy deceleration on oil demand,'' he said.

"The US economy contracted at a 0.3 percent annualised pace in the third quarter as the global credit crunch saw consumers and businesses cut back on spending.

NEWS.com.au, 28 Oct 2008 Analysts say a weak economy in the United States, the world's biggest energy user, will result in lower oil consumption, which will pressure prices lower.

Meanwhile, OPEC chief Chakib Khelil said Sunday the recent oil production cuts taken by the cartel in an attempt to boost prices will take a while to have an impact on the market.

This decision "will take a long time to take hold'' because the demand for oil has still not reached OPEC's revised production level, Mr Khelil, who is also the Algerian Energy Minister, told local radio in Algiers.

At an emergency meeting in Vienna last month, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to reduce output by 1.5 million barrels a day to 27.3 million bpd from yesterday in a bid to prevent prices falling further.

"A number of countries including Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Nigeria, have already announced a decrease in production,'' Mr Khelil added.

Oil prices have more than halved since reaching record highs above $US147 in July as investors grew increasingly worried about energy demand amid a deteriorating economic environment.

HOW FAR DO YOU SEE OIL FALLING TOO.

IMHO I dont think it will drop to far from what it is now (60$) it may well steady up around the 60 to 50 mark ? give or take 5/10$ we will see ?? Still I dont think it will take much for it to go the other way next year ?

'Fair oil price $US70 to $US90 a barrel'
AdvertisementEmail Print Normal font Large font November 3, 2008 - 7:04AM


Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani said he believed that between $70 and $90 would be a fair oil price for a barrel of oil.

He was speaking at a news conference after talks with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is touring the oil-rich Gulf trying to attract extra funding for the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"The price level we think is a fair is $70 to $90 price," he said, speaking in English.

"We wish that we had fixed price but that's a market... High prices affecting the economy and low prices affecting the economy, so it's very important to think about prices that can be workable for both sides."

Qatar belongs to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which clashed with Brown over the cartel's decision to cut oil production at an emergency meeting last month in a bid to buoy up prices.

Brown again said during the news conference that he wants "a stable energy market," adding: "It's not a question of interest in a high price or a low price".

Qatar's Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah last week stridently rebuffed criticism from countries including Britain over the oil production cut.

He said they could not label OPEC as "the bad boy" for taking such action without suggesting an alternative.

Oil rises as Saudis turn off taps

By Upstream staff


Oil rose above $64 today, after industry sources said Saudi Arabia had already made substantial cuts in supplies and helped the market recoup earlier losses.


Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has reduced exports by around 900,000 barrels per day from a peak in August, one source said.

US light crude for December delivery was up 69 cents at $64.60 a barrel by 7:07 a.m. EDT. It had touched a session low earlier of $62.25. Oil suffered its biggest monthly drop ever in October.

London Brent crude was up 42 cents at $60.90 a barrel. Earlier Brent had touched a 20-month low of $58.38 a barrel.

"Saudi Arabia cutting supplies could be supportive," Christopher Bellew at Bache Commodities told Reuters.

"But it could also be bearish, pointing to reduced demand from customers."

Earlier, the market had fallen more than a dollar, pressured partly by expectations that oil refiners will have to cut output because of weak demand for fuel.

All markets were awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election.

Saudi Arabia's supply cut eases doubts about whether the world's top exporter would comply quickly with a 1.5 million bpd output cut agreed by Opec in Vienna last month.

Other Opec members have also cut back.

The United Arab Emirates has reduced its production to around 2.3 million bpd from around 2.5 million bpd, a top state oil company official said today.

Qatar has cut exports to Asia by about 40,000 bpd from this month, Energy Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah told Reuters.

Crude oil has plummeted from a record above $147 a barrel in July as the credit crisis in the global banking sector has started to hit the wider economy. This has already dampened fuel consumption in the US, the world's top oil consumer, and other major consumer nations.

US car sales plunged 32% in October to lows unseen in a quarter century, while US factory activity - a barometer for future oil demand - fell to its lowest in 26 years.

Oil holds above $60 on weak dlr; demand fears linger
Fri 7 Nov 2008, 8:18 GMT

By Fayen Wong

PERTH (Reuters) - Oil hovered above $60 a barrel on Friday, as support from a weakening U.S. dollar was countered by an increasingly gloomy economic outlook that weighed on near-term energy demand.

Comments by OPEC-member Libya that the oil-producing cartel was not considering cutting production again also kept the commodity at a 1- year low.

U.S. light crude for December delivery fell 9 cents to $60.68 a barrel by 0702 GMT, having earlier fallen to $59.97, its lowest since March 22, 2007. London Brent Crude shed 18 cents to $57.25 a barrel.

"The pullback in the U.S. dollar is a key driver for oil's gains," said Toby Hassall, chief analyst at Commodities Warrants Australia in Sydney.

"But a weak global demand outlook will continue to be the primary driver in oil market. With the U.S. non-farm payroll expected to be abysmal, there is nothing much on the demand side that can lift prices."

The dollar extended losses against the Japanese currency on Friday, falling more than 1 yen from the day's highs on risk aversion.

Oil prices have tumbled more than 9 percent this week, as a raft of dismal economic data from the United States heightened worries about a protracted global recession and growing U.S. fuel stockpiles underscored slackening energy demand.

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it expected 2009 global economic growth of 2.2 percent, down 0.8 percentage points from its October forecast. It also cut its 2009 baseline oil price projection to $68 a barrel from $100.

Asian stocks fell on Friday on fears of a global recession, as layoffs and corporate profit warnings piled up in the face of a slowing global economy.

Traders will be looking towards U.S. economic indicators due later on Friday, including government reports on October unemployment data and September wholesale inventories, to gauge how the world's largest economy is faring.

OPEC NOT CONSIDERING MORE CUTS

OPEC is not actively considering cutting production again as oil markets are still volatile, but the group could opt to meet before its next scheduled meeting in December, Libya's top oil official said on Friday.

Shokri Ghanem also warned that continued low oil prices could force companies to cancel new projects, risking a shortage of oil in two years.

In about three months, oil prices have plummetted nearly $90 from record highs above $147 a barrel, as the worsening global economic crisis erodes energy demand in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer, and other industrialised nations.

Slowing demand and the sharp price declines drove the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) at an emergency meeting last month.

OPEC's seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will drop 310,000 bpd in the four weeks to November 22 and will have fallen 700,000 bpd from an August supply peak, an oil analyst who tracks future flows said.

Opec could cut supply again
Wire services

Opec will cut oil output again if the trend towards lower prices and slowing demand growth are unchanged when the group meets in December, Iran's Opec Governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said yesterday.

The credit crisis and economic slowdown could shave as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from global crude demand, Khatibi told Reuters.

"If everything is the same and the trends continue like this then Opec will have to do something," Khatibi said in an interview by telephone.

"We have to balance the market. Recent indications are that demand could have fallen by 2 to 3 million barrels per day. Stocks are rising."

Oil dipped below $60 a barrel last week, the lowest since March 2007, and has tumbled nearly 60% from its July peak over $147.

Opec agreed at an emergency meeting on Oct. 24 to chop production by 1.5 million bpd, or around 5%, to halt the price slide, but the cut has had little effect to date.

Opec President Chakib Khelil said on Saturday the producer group would probably move to cut again at its December meeting if prices stayed low and members had fully met their existing pledges to reduce supply.

Some members of Opec would propose at the December meeting that the group look to maintain prices within a $20 range, Khatibi said.

That range could be either $70 to $90 per barrel or $80 to $100 per barrel, he added, declining to name the countries that would propose or support the price band or to say if Iran would support it.

Venezuela's oil minister said last month it would propose Opec adopt one of those two price bands. Venezuela has already proposed a further cut of another 1 million bpd in Opec supply at the December meeting.

Current prices were too low to encourage investment in unconventional oil projects such as oil sands and in expensive conventional oil projects in the deep sea, Khatibi said.

"In the short-term the crisis is affecting demand," Khatibi said. "But in the medium term this will affect supply. We need a price that will ensure we build capacity today to meet tomorrow's demand."

Iran's plans to expand output were unaffected as it had neither deep sea nor unconventional projects, he said. "But if this continues, it will affect all producers, and Iran will be no exception".

Oil companies are already reconsidering some projects that looked profitable when oil was higher.

Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, has cut around 200,000 bpd from output of around 4.04 million bpd in line with Opec's October agreement, an Iranian oil official said on Friday.

World needs to tap oil reserves more quickly-IEAReuters, Wednesday November 12 2008

By Jane Merriman
LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The world is not about to run out of oil, but there is a risk its reserves may not be exploited fast enough to meet global demand growth in the years ahead, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.
The agency's World Energy Outlook for 2008 stopped short of sounding the alarm that oil supplies may have peaked, but highlighted obstacles to accessing new fields that include the increasing dominance of national oil companies.
"Some 30 million barrels per day of new capacity is needed by 2015," said the IEA, which advises industrialised countries.
"There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil-supply crunch in that timeframe."
The IEA estimated the world needs investment of more than $26 trillion in the next 20 years to ensure adequate energy supplies, an increase of more than $4 trillion from estimates in its 2007 World Energy Outlook.
The Executive Summary of its latest Outlook was released last week ahead of the full report.
In oil, upstream investment spending has risen in nominal terms, but much of the increase was due to high costs and also because cheaper reserves were off-limits to international oil companies.
"Today, most capital goes to exploring for and developing high-cost reserves, partly because of limitations on international oil company access to the cheapest resources."
The gap between what was being built in terms of new capacity and what would be needed to keep pace with demand was set to widen sharply after 2010, the IEA said.
The IEA's projections pointed to a rise in world oil supply to 106 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030 from 84 million bpd in 2007.
NON-OPEC PEAK
Most of the increase would come from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, whose share of world oil output was projected to rise to 51 percent in 2030 from 44 percent in 2007.
Outside OPEC, production has already peaked in most countries and would peak in most others before 2030.
The need to invest enough to ensure supply meets demand has been a recurrent theme in the IEA's annual outlook.
The 2008 report highlighted again the urgent need for investment, but also shifted the focus to dwindling reserves.
It looked at decline rates for 800 of the world's oilfields, where it expected the average rate of decline to increase to 8.6 percent in 2030 from about 6.7 percent currently for those that have passed their production peak.
Given the high cost of bringing on new output and the struggle to match supplies with demand, the IEA assumed consumers would pay an average of $100 a barrel for oil over the next seven years and more beyond that.
The agency was careful not to predict prices, but makes price assumptions in its assessments.
Oil reached a record peak of more than $147 a barrel in July, but has fallen back below $60, a drop of more than 50 percent in just over three months.
The IEA saw more price volatility ahead.
"Pronounced short-term swings in prices are likely to remain the norm," the IEA said.
"The sudden drop in oil prices in August and early September 2008 - in the absence of any obvious major shift in demand or supply - lends support to the argument that financial investors have been playing a significant role in amplifying the impact of tighter market fundamentals on prices."
The report's projections for world oil demand were for a 1 percent increase per year on average, to 106 million bpd in 2030 from 85 million bpd in 2007.
World energy demand was expected to grow by 1.6 percent per year on average, with China, the world's second biggest energy consumer, together with India, accounting for just over half the increase.