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AFREN (AFR) Is this the next TULLOW??? (AFR)     

niceonecyril - 04 Apr 2009 08:30

< "> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=AFR&Siedit this post http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201301210700069619
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2012-full-year-results/201303250700107200A/

In an attempt to cut down the header page,i've transferred some of the older news to Page1 post No.3.

http://www.oil-price.net/index.php?lang=en
http://www.ft.com/home/uk

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111020700081674R
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111150700250723S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112010705051251T
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201170700146472V
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479690V
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4323758
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201204170700164488B
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205140700212304D
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205210700407032D
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4430164
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc-%28afr%29/rns/significant-new-seychelles-3d-seismic-programme/201212120700052973T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/2013-half-yearly-results/201308230700063334M/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/ogo-drilling-and-resources-update/201311190700083404T/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/trading-statement-and-operations-update/201401280700096280Y/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201405200700135209H/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/afren-plc--afr-/rns/interim-management-statement/201410300700116483V/
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4942625
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4943375

required field - 21 Oct 2010 15:31 - 1342 of 3666

Funny name for a dog !....you know what wimpey stands for : we import more paddy's every year !.

jimmy b - 21 Oct 2010 15:44 - 1343 of 3666

Oh believe me it's a dog !!

irlee57 - 21 Oct 2010 15:59 - 1344 of 3666

I also own this DOG in 200 years it get to 30p !!!!!!!!!!!!

Chris Carson - 21 Oct 2010 16:12 - 1345 of 3666

Fabulous spike today, I thought at the rate it was going take till Xmas to get anywhere near this sp. Brilliant!

required field - 21 Oct 2010 16:19 - 1346 of 3666

Along with AFC, XEL, this is sure looking great....long may it continue....

cynic - 21 Oct 2010 16:30 - 1347 of 3666

hali - i almost never forecast sp prices, and if i do, it's usually more conservative than that put out by the over-exuberant ..... anyway, this is certainly turning into the cracker it has long promised

halifax - 21 Oct 2010 16:37 - 1348 of 3666

rf as we have said before if AFR achieve their production forecasts they would be producing more than TLW which has a market cap at least 8 times that of AFR. So with their share of the additional production from today's deal they are rapidly heading towards 100,000bopd within 2/3 years.

cynic - 21 Oct 2010 16:44 - 1349 of 3666

what i find impressive about AFR is that, like TLW, their strike rate is phenomenal - it feels like about 4/6 or maybe even better, which is amazing against the accepted industry norm of about 1/5

cynic - 21 Oct 2010 16:44 - 1350 of 3666

what i find impressive about AFR is that, like TLW, their strike rate is phenomenal - it feels like about 4/6 or maybe even better, which is amazing against the accepted industry norm of about 1/5

niceonecyril - 21 Oct 2010 19:00 - 1351 of 3666

If AFR are to become the next TLW,it'll be by proving up reserves which at present i
believe are roughly 130mbo. They could start by a positive update from Okwok,preferably tomorrow(what that would do for the SP with the present momentum)
,an extra 50/100mbo would do for starters.
cyril

ptholden - 21 Oct 2010 20:03 - 1352 of 3666

Photobucket

Photobucket

TA Time!

I've posted the longer term chart in addition to a more recent one in an attempt to try and identify resistance levels where the SP may stall and shorter term movements.

To be honest horizontal res levels are quite difficult to identify until the SP reaches the all time high in the region of 185p. In fact I can only find two, the first at 138p and the second at 157p, both of which are very long term and somewhat tenuous. Additionally, there is the original trendline (which will join up with the all time high in January) which I would expect to be an obstacle, unless the SP gets through there beforehand.

To the shorter term, the SP has reacted in a classic fashion to a period of trading in a range followed by a breakout, the subsequent retrace and the burst upwards; all of which have been accompanied by expected volumes adding credence to the move North.

Quite clearly the SP has broken through the top of the Jul-Oct channel and convention states that this trendline will become support to any retrace; it will be interesting to see if it does. In any event 123p will hopefully be the new base from which to build and I'll be moving my stops up to lock in profits.

My target remains 185p in the next few months but somewhat sceptical we can get that far before January. Longer term, once past that level, the sky really is the limit and predictive TA with regard to targets becomes much more difficult.

On a side note I posted today that the court case in Dubai amounts to 6m, I have read somewhere else it is actually 0.6m so will hardly affect the SP. Edit:Read again this legal business is about 6m, so no idea what to believe - I don't really care!

Good luck to all holders, once through 138p I will average up again and certainly on any retracement which results in support being confirmed.

Balerboy - 21 Oct 2010 21:21 - 1353 of 3666

Must admit, didn't expect such a surge. My small steps have gone to stides...hope we don't see 115p again though I'm sure 120 - 125 might be back, a top up opportunity.aimo .,.

ptholden - 21 Oct 2010 22:07 - 1354 of 3666

Merrill broker update following today's news - Buy / target 166p

Company operations update - Tuesday 26 October (I'm looking forward to that as we're still awaiting drilling news)

niceonecyril - 22 Oct 2010 09:55 - 1355 of 3666

As one might expect some profit taking,settling down a little now.I thought of top slicing myself but the thought of Tuesdays interim report and proable drill result
made me stick,even considering topping up, dependent on news?
cyril

piston broke - 22 Oct 2010 13:08 - 1356 of 3666

still plenty of activity today

unusual that after yesterdays big increase the price hasnt dropped today

aldwickk - 22 Oct 2010 15:16 - 1357 of 3666

Afren plc (AFR LN)

Conference presentation

London, 22 October 2010 - The Chairman of Afren plc today presented the keynote address at the Centre for Petroleum Information annual lunch held in Lagos, Nigeria.

The presentation materials, titled "The role of independents in the Nigerian oil and gas industry" are available on Afren's website at www.afren.com.

ptholden - 22 Oct 2010 21:35 - 1358 of 3666

Nice little intra-day reversal resulting in a bullish candlestick.

For interest, as I mentioned might happen in my last TA post the SP bounced off what was the top of the previous channel, ie, resistance has become support, albeit early days.

Added again this morning during the dip, already in profit - long may it remain so.

blanche - 23 Oct 2010 14:52 - 1359 of 3666

Next stop 3.50 as posted on many occassions!!!!

niceonecyril - 23 Oct 2010 16:23 - 1360 of 3666

3.50 will equate to a M/Cap of over 3.1billion,now thats just not going to happen om
production alone.To stand any chance ofreaching such a figure will depend on substanually increasing the reserves,we have many quality assets but they need to proven up.If as is thought the Okwok field is bigger than E-Bok(along with E-Bok deeps?) that would certainly go someway to reaching that goal,so Tuesday's interim report should give a much clearer picture?
cyril

ptholden - 23 Oct 2010 22:12 - 1361 of 3666

Blanche

Longer term AFR may one day reach the dizzy heights of 3.50, but it won't be the 'next stop' and nor will it happen any time soon. Sorry, but that is just a dopey muppet, ramping, ill informed comment that is your forte on this BB. Unfortunately it detracts from this thread and the possible long term success of AFR. Do you have any idea what adding 2 BILLION pounds to the market cap actually entails? I guess not.

You're not blonde by any chance are you?
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