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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic - 19 Nov 2007 16:31 - 135 of 21973

what a vile day from weather to Wall Street ...... have taken money off the table, some to bank profits (50% of IEC + 20% of SCHE) and others to swallow losses (RTN) ....... only joy was NRK continuing to tumble and a late short of SOLA which is now in the money

Falcothou - 19 Nov 2007 16:58 - 136 of 21973

Wonder how many billions the Fed will inject into the system today. Their printing presses must be running full tilt!

cynic - 19 Nov 2007 17:11 - 137 of 21973

why any? ...... my guess is that Fed will not be reducing rates any more any time soon ...... if they do, the risk of unacceptably higher inflation and even weaker $ will do more harm than good.

on the other hand, it looks likely that BoE will reduce rates, probably just before Christmas ..... EU Central Bank seems rather more hard-nosed

HARRYCAT - 19 Nov 2007 17:14 - 138 of 21973

Looks like the DOW 13000 level may be tested again. If it holds, there should be a nice bounce up again but I have got to admit that this is investing by the seat of your pants. Can't decide if today was mainly profit taking or something more fundamental.

cynic - 19 Nov 2007 17:16 - 139 of 21973

more fundamental i fear, though FTSE is primarily driven by banks and oil ...... nevertheless, prices were slashed almost indiscriminately, which indicates a certain level of forced sales ...... a decent bounce must surely be on the cards, he commented more with hope than expectation.

spitfire43 - 19 Nov 2007 17:20 - 140 of 21973

Darradev - Bad luck, same for me today I went long at 6196 and hit my stop 15 minutes later at 6171. Still learning at the moment, and lesson has been learnt, don't try and be too clever, catching falling knives, bucking the market etc all come to mind.

Only taking small positions until I start winning more than losing.

Darradev - 19 Nov 2007 17:45 - 141 of 21973

Evening spit..., thanks for the words of understanding. It's more frustrating than anything else. Having been 'watching' and getting it right for the previous few days last week and then to 'blow it' in a few hours...

Anyway, another day, another opportunity. :-)

On another topic, I see Mr Parvizi and the Directors have increased their stake in GOO, so maybe some cheer there in the comng days/weeks. I remember around this time last year (Dec) it went ballistic.

HARRYCAT - 19 Nov 2007 21:22 - 142 of 21973

Just purely from a charting perspective, DOW is now sub 13000 & also below the 200 DMA. I'm not sure how relevant the 200 DMA is for a major index, but historically there don't seem to be many sustained breakouts. The only thing that possibly stands out on the 10 year chart is that bear & bull cycles tend to be about 5 year periods, which would suggest we are at the peak & now heading down. FTSE chart is slightly different, but still cyclical. Imo, the 10 year chart still shows we are at the top. Opinions welcome, but the gravy train may be over for a while.

cynic - 19 Nov 2007 21:32 - 143 of 21973

i'm a damn fool and am currently long Dow ..... i do not at all like that index is below 13,000 and 200 dma, but believe real key number is 12850 or thereabouts

HARRYCAT - 19 Nov 2007 21:44 - 144 of 21973

As you have said many times, no stock goes up or down in a straight line & I would expect DOW to test 13000 support a couple of times, but................2008 looks like it may be heading downwards on the chart.

Strawbs - 19 Nov 2007 22:08 - 145 of 21973

The DOW is still making higher highs and higher lows, so technically still in an uptrend. A close below 12845 ish would create a "lower low" and indicate a possible trend change. If it should slide then I'd look for a bounce around 12520 ish. Think it's "thanks giving" in the US this week, so lower than average volumes may also make things a little volatile.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

maddoctor - 19 Nov 2007 22:30 - 146 of 21973

the nasdaq still has not broken the 200ma and is likely to go up tomorrow on the back of HP , expecting a bounce on all indices

HARRYCAT - 20 Nov 2007 08:55 - 147 of 21973

Still on the chart theme, looking at the 10 year chart for the FTSE 100, 350, Small cap & Fledgling, they all seem to follow roughly the same pattern (naturally enough), but the AIM chart looks to follow it's own pattern, totally unrelated to the main market. For those that trade stocks conventionally, maybe that is the sector to look at in a bear market?
Nice bounce today, doc. Spot on with your diagnosis.

BigTed - 20 Nov 2007 09:16 - 148 of 21973

going to test 6000 soon...?!

HARRYCAT - 20 Nov 2007 09:33 - 149 of 21973

DOW futures currently +50, so slight FTSE recovery looking likely, imo.

HARRYCAT - 20 Nov 2007 21:10 - 150 of 21973

Just scraped above the 13000 mark. Tenuous reprieve.
Hoping for a reasonable day on the FTSE tomorrow.

cynic - 20 Nov 2007 21:33 - 151 of 21973

but remember Dow was below 12900 at one point, so a good bounce ....phew!

explosive - 20 Nov 2007 22:30 - 152 of 21973

I'm seeing the bears right now so a short for me.

BigTed - 21 Nov 2007 08:44 - 153 of 21973

Surprised by the market being lower this morning, for me, shows the change in mood now, to bearish, any reason at all and the market drops by 100 points, loads of bullish statements around this morning and doing nothing to help the market...

cynic - 21 Nov 2007 10:17 - 154 of 21973

this is all starting to look very very scary indeed ...... Dow indications now -110 ..... for myself, i have sold quite a lot of mis-behaving stocks this morning, albeit that it means crystalising some quite nasty losses and/or brought back into line other stocks where i was significantly o'weight

have also shorted SOLA again!
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