EKA are expecting to mine 3.8 million lbs of Molybdenum this year. For the more sceptical amongst you, read this to confirm:

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200412150700023844G.html

They own the mine and the molydbenum in it has been independently varified as stated in the announcement linked above.

Molydbenum currently trades at around $38.50 per lb, you can check this at:

http://www.monterrico.co.uk/s/MetalPrices.asp

so do the sums 3.8m x $39.25 = $149m = 82m

Eureka Mining's market cap is 26m

In 2006 they expect to pull over 10,000 tonnes (20m lbs) of Moly out of that mine.

On top of all that they have recently aquired a mine in Russia with estimated contained metal of 3.32 million tonnes of copper, 3.26 million
ounces of gold and 98.9 million pounds of molybdenum. They hope to complete the feasibility study for this one in 2006:

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200501130700033169H.html

I agree with what you are saying Papal. Considering that they floated two years ago at 1.25 and since then, they have fast tracked Shorsyke, and bought chebinsk. Also the moly price is several times what it was back then while copper and gold have climbed substantially.

But still, the market does not like them at the moment. If the production or cash flow were to be delayed at this point, then you'd probably see the SP halve from here. But if do live up to their PR, then it would be difficult for the market to argue with real cash flow.

Agreed tallsiii.

A post from konil at afn;

konil - 5 Dec'05 - 18:22 - 242 of 242


rui sa, please refer to page 23 of this report

http://www.eurekamining.co.uk/documents/Archive/Eureka_Report_210605.pdf

the base case sp is 4.57 based on total asset value of $141m, of which shorskoye contributes $48m and there is cash of $8m. Chelyabinsk, Dostyk and Kentau total $85m, with an overall total of $141m. So stripping out $85m will give a base case value of
48(shorskoye) + 8(cash) / 141(includes chelyabinsk et al) * 4.57 = 1.81.

in arriving at these numbers the authors have used a moly price of $20/lb in 2006, $15/lb in 2007 and $10/lb thereafter and a discount rate of 20%.

this compares to a current price c. $35/lb with indications of continuing strong prices. furthermore a discount rate of 20% bears no resemblance to reality (the authors state this is to account for uncertainty over the moly price but they have already used pessimistic figures for this) and even the more normal 10% discount rate is not a realistic figure but is used to account for various risks in mining projects. however, barring some unforseen disaster shorskoye is funded and will be producing in 3 months, not 3 years.

That is an interesting report. All we need to see is some real moly sold to real customers for real money and EKA are likely to acheive the valuations in that report and more. Nevertheless, the risk remains at the moment.

SynFuel, the Petroleum Alternative
Zach Fross
December 7th, 2005

With the coming oil crisis looming directly ahead, there are going to be many opportunities in the energy sector to cash-in. One such opportunity will be alternative petroleum sources such as coal-to-liquid-fuel and natural gas-to-liquid fuel (GTL), otherwise known as synthetic fuel or SynFuel. SynFuel is rapidly becoming a popular alternative to increasingly expensive petroleum.

According to the U.S.E.I.A, the Middle East has an estimated 1.4 trillion cubic feet of untapped natural gas resources. In comparison the U.S. uses approximately 22.4 million cubic feet of natural gas per year. The problem for the Middle East is that it is difficult to get these vast resources to market; there is no existing infrastructure (i.e. pipelines, transport, etc.). With GTL technology, the natural gas is converted to liquid fuel (diesel, naphtha, and kerosene) and then transported to market utilizing existing infrastructure. This enables the Middle East to exploit vast natural gas resources and bring natural gas to market cheaply and efficiently.

The International Energy Agency recently released a report detailing the projected energy demand to grow over 50% by 2030. The estimated dollar amount to bring the energy supply inline with the increasing energy demand is $17 trillion. It is highly unlikely that the funds will be invested in enough time to keep the energy market from reaching supply deficiencies. This means that the price of oil will increase until the increasing demand is met with an increasing supply.

Two progressively more popular petroleum alternatives are coal liquefaction and natural gas-to-liquid fuel; otherwise respectively know as Clean Coal Technology and GTL. Recently, a company called Waste Management and Processors Inc. (WMPI) received government approval along with $100 million in federal funds to build the United States first waste coal liquefaction facility in Pennsylvania. The major technology used in liquefaction and GTL technology is the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) process.

The primary materials used in the FT catalytic conversion process are nickel, cobalt, and molybdenum. The better the catalytic material, the more liquid output obtained from the process. Molybdenum is the best catalyst and is becoming the most widely used. A full-scale SynFuel operation uses several tons of catalytic material per day ! As more and more countries around the globe begin utilizing the FT process to convert coal and natural gas into liquid fuel demand for catalytic material will proportionately increase.

Look for investment opportunities in the catalyst and catalyst materials markets. As new SynFuel plants come online, the demand for materials like molybdenum and cobalt will rise dramatically.


12/07/2005
Zach Fross

Moly is in demand for many things at the moment. As the copper price rises, more mines are likely to be working flat out and will generate more Moly by-product. So there will be more supply, but the increasing demand for moly is likely to outpace. The expected fall off in the price of moly has been widely expected, but so far has failed to materialise. It will be interesting to see if it ever does materialise before the end of this commodity super cycle.

The Times

Rumour of the day

Eureka Mining, the base metals explorer in which Celtic Resources owns 15 per cent, firmed 1p to 107p on AIM amid word that it was close to buying the 49 per cent of Russias Chelyabinsk copper and gold project it does not own. The company, which has an option to buy the stake for $6 million (3.5 million), raised 9 million at 125p in September, in part to fund the purchase.

My understanding was that they were only planning to pay for the other 49% when they completed a successful feasability study. If they have done so, then we could be in for a big lift!

News due soon I think.

Has anyone phoned the company to recently? I am sure that Bartley or Foo might be able to either confirm or dispel rumours that are going around at the moment.

The anti Celtic Resources rumour mill are hitting Foo's VOG and EKA with lots of negative stories, like the one recently on EKA about permits. Now they are having a go at VOG again I see.

A conspiracy going on ?

Anyway, good top up time with the price of EKA now and Molybednum production on line and generating cash in Q1 06.

Major Shareholders

Celtic Resources Holdings PLC 15.02%
Gartmore 5.57%
Henderson Global Investors Ltd 4.18%
JP Morgan 4.18%
RAB Capital 3.83%
RCM 3.11% (Holdings of M James and D Bartley)

Directors
Kevin Alfred Foo 1.923%
David Bartley 1.198%
Malcolm Raymond James 1.151%
Andrzej S Sliwa 0.605%
Jonathan Scott-Barrett 0.177%


Presentation Link

Maybe the person putting out the rumours is topping up also!!

Interesting background story to Moly;

http://www.cozine.com/archive/cc2005/01370511.html

The last 2 trades at mid price look like someone went around the MM's looking for what they would sell off at mid price to allow the MM's drop their holdings down. A positive sign that someone is interested in buying large chunks.

Would really like to know if production is still due for Q1 2006. If I could be sure of that, then i'd probably top up.

tallsiiii...this pup has cost me a few quid!

how are things old boy?

Rgds
PT

Hi Prop, things are good on the whole. The new issue hit this one quite badly. But at the moment there is no reason for it to be 20% below the original float price when they are now in a so much better position than they were then. They have delayed moly production from the Q4 2005 that we had expected, but if they are in line for next quarter, then they are severly underated at the moment.

Moving up now, bid rumours hotting up for the Chelyabinsk license ???

During writing the last post, I managed to talk myself into buying another 10K. So that explains some of the move.

What rumours are about at the moment?

The Times one, stating they were close to buying the remaining percentage of Chelyabinsk so that EKA then holds 100% of it.