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Dubious sell-off     

ellio - 15 May 2006 09:10

The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

hewittalan6 - 22 May 2006 09:57 - 135 of 1564

There is something a little dubious about this extent.
I have stocks marked down on absolutely no activity and others that have only seen buying are down 2%.
This seems to me to be someone making hay while the sun shines and grabbing stock cheaper than there is any reason for it to be on the back of blind panic.
alan

WOODIE - 22 May 2006 10:14 - 136 of 1564

skyhigh you was right nice bounce but for how long?

Pommy - 22 May 2006 10:15 - 137 of 1564

the problem is , the natural resources stocks are hit, people with derivative positions near to pay margins so sell good stocks to pay them!!

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 10:20 - 138 of 1564

Any shares with low liquidity or small NMS (normal market size) will be marked down quickly as they will be hard for the market maker to shift if there is any sudden selling pressure. There may be protected trades (T trades) going through, selling stock, which is why the price will fall on no actual visible activity. Other stocks may not be marked up for the same reason, e.g. background sells being factored in. I suspect there will be many such days as these over the next few months. Investor sentiment is often more important than fundamentals, when the market shows signs of fear or greed. There will be many a down day, with the occassional false rally. I would look for wider sell offs in the small and mid caps over the next few weeks. Especially shares that have doubled or more, and haven't been hit yet. Fund managers will need to lock in profits generated elsewhere to offset poor performance, and a slide in the large caps stocks. This will, I suspect, start to become a self fullfiling prophecy, with the private investor left holding the baby. In this environment, any bad news will be twice as powerfull, just as a few months ago, the slightest good news pushed shares higher. In my opinion anyway....

Strawbs.

Sharesure - 22 May 2006 10:32 - 139 of 1564

This market does look as though long positions and stop losses are exagerating the sp movements; whether good news can reverse it in particular stocks is going to be interesting. There are a few with good news due out this week that will test that.

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 10:47 - 140 of 1564

Shareshure,

I think that will certainly be a good test. Don't get me wrong. Some stocks will continue to do well, even if this does prove to be the start of a bear market. I know from last time though (the tech bubble), that many of my friends didn't react to the early falls, as they'd done so well out of the rise in their own stock picks. Most didn't start piling out until at least a month or so later. I put that down to the cummulative fear effect of more down days, and a change in press sentiment, from "a short term correction" to a "more sustained trend". Only time will tell if history repeats itself. Anyone investing for the long term, with a good company, will no doubt average out any dip, and finish ahead. Although I'm generally a long term investor, personal circumstances mean I prefer to sit on the "guaranteed cash" while the dust settles, rather than loose any of the profits I've made.

Strawbs.

goldfinger - 22 May 2006 12:04 - 141 of 1564

Certainly hitting momentum investors a lot harder than long term investors like myself and otheres here. Some long termers will sell out and take profits, Im holding as Ive been through situations like this before and if it does turn out to be a Bear of course there will be a spike downwards in the chart but the longterm trend will be up. (if you hold strong decent stock)

Glad I didnt get sucked into the Commodity and Oil sectors, carnage going on at the moment. A lot of investors will be lost forever to the markets which isnt a good thing as we in this country in general dont invest or save as much as the likes of the US or Germans.

The markets these days seem to be dominated by gamblers with a TA chart guide and a cfd or SB account looking for a quick fix.

Dont really know the answer as to how to rectify this, does anyone?.

jimmy b - 22 May 2006 13:44 - 142 of 1564

Can't believe some of the oiler's ,,were they really that overvalued ?? luckily i wasn't in much when this started ,i'm out now and staying out until we have some clear direction ,the problem may be when this ends ,we go sideways .

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 14:51 - 143 of 1564

I suspect in the euphoria of rising prices, a number of stocks will have been overpriced. At the end of the day, it's only worth what somebody's willing to pay for it though. If the price looks like it will keep on rising (as many have since the start of the year), then people will happily keep paying more, regardless of whether any fundamentals have truely changed. Of course, that ultimately skews the value of a stock, and makes it harder to judge where true value lies. When momentum switches the other way, the reaction will be overdone in the opposite direction. We won't know which stocks are fairly valued until the dust settles, and the price chasers have been scared out of the market.

Strawbs.

jimmy b - 22 May 2006 15:09 - 144 of 1564

Yes and by the look of it there may be some bargains to be had .
Dow sliding again .

skyhigh - 22 May 2006 15:12 - 145 of 1564

The only thing is... you get into the bargains in this type of market and.. they fall as well !

soul traders - 22 May 2006 15:14 - 146 of 1564

There has been so much carnage on my portfolio that blood is beginning to leak out of my monitor! Happy to hold at current levels as I have made safe some profits and will re-invest when things appear to have settled. Lots of potential bargains exist based on fundamentals and near-term prospects, IMO.

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 15:18 - 147 of 1564

That also worries me. I know people that have seen this correction (or whatever you want to call it), and are thinking of closing ISA's to get spare cash to buy "bargains". Great if you can pick the true bargains, but pretty suicidal if you can't. I think some people just get infected by the "can't loose" mentality, and forget the little "shares can go down" disclaimer on the tin.

Strawbs.

jimmy b - 22 May 2006 15:21 - 148 of 1564

I agree Strawbs , i won't be looking until the dust settles ,i don't think anyone knows where this is going next.

soul traders - 22 May 2006 15:25 - 149 of 1564

Panic is a wonderful thing . . . (that's meant ironically, in case it's not coming across as such).

As I think I said last week, part of the game is good stockpicking and part of it is about anticipating the crowd. No prizes for guessing where we're at at the moment.

skyhigh - 22 May 2006 15:26 - 150 of 1564

Ouch! What's happening now is downright cruel... look at VOG, HDD and a few others..there's no need for it.!

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 15:30 - 151 of 1564

People still buying though......

Strawbs.

soul traders - 22 May 2006 15:30 - 152 of 1564

I'm still in VOG - cut my holding by 40% last week though! I shot HDD out of the door a month or two ago; it's another one whose SP could be headed for bargain territory.

Agreed that it's a bit brutal. Welcome to the FTSE white-knuckle ride :o)

cynic - 22 May 2006 15:45 - 153 of 1564

If VOG makes you cry (me too!), have a look at what has happened to other good quality stocks such as POG and CSR

Strawbs - 22 May 2006 15:50 - 154 of 1564

I doubt if it's over yet. I would be very very cautious of any rally later in the week. Looking at my old portfolio, I'd be thinking some of these stocks are bargains now, but if others have been trapped by the speed of the fall, they could be selling into any rally when it comes. I'm pretty sure the herd mentality is kicking in now, and it'll take some stability before anyone can be sure of the prices being offered.

Strawbs.
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