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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

corehard - 18 Aug 2005 14:59 - 1362 of 2787

C'mon Dead we know you're out there !

ptholden - 18 Aug 2005 15:35 - 1363 of 2787

Well, turnover pretty much in line with what I was expecting (when I'm able to resurrect the old PC I'll be able to check my estimate). The overheads threw the 500k projected profit out of kilter. Will no doubt be a disappointment to many, but 300k profit is not to be sniffed out. The main element is that DGT are now profitable and an awful lot of small caps are not able to make that claim!!

pth

andysmith - 18 Aug 2005 15:53 - 1364 of 2787

Got rid of mine for 0.74p at lunchtime and 16% profit.
Thought it would go down despite being a good turn-around and 500k half year was in the price and less than that delivered. Looks like a good tip in the 1st place Pete at 0.4p, good call to sell at lunchtime and I will keep on my watchlist to buy again later in the year.

stockdog - 18 Aug 2005 17:19 - 1365 of 2787

A quick recalculation of where we might be at end of year.

Retainers from prior years .H1 ....157,500 H2 ...103,750 (a few clients lost half way thru)
Retainers acquired H1 '05 ..H1 ....110,125 H2 ...141,500 (2 quarters full value in H2)
Retainers acquired H2 '05 ..H1 .............0 H2 .....76,750 (less new clients than in H1)
Transaction/advice fees .....H1 ....768,375 H2 ...615,000 (~80% of H1 to be cautious)
Rechargeable expenses .....H1 ....150,000 H2 ...120,000 (pro rata to above line)
Total turnover ..................H1 .1,179,000 H2 .1,057,000

Basic Overhead ...............H1 .....600,000 H2 ...650,000 (allow additional staff + assct o/h)
Rechargeable expenses ....H1 .....150,000 H2 ...120,000 (as per above turnover amounts)
Bonus Salaries (guess) ....H1 ......148,000 H2 ....99,000 (pro rata to basic profit H2/H1)

Interest/Disposal ........... H1 .........9,000 H2 ....12,000

Net Profit ......................H1 ......290,000 H2 ...200,000

Total Net Profit for year 490,000 gives a PE of 8.53 at mid SP 0.675p

If PE might be exepcted to be at least 12, gives a mid SP of 0.95p

Of note - we lost nearly as many retainers from prior years in H1 as I expect to gain in H2 - why is that? is it a worry? Also bonus salaries may be as much as a third of operating profits - nicework if you can get it!

So, a more modest view of the world than previously, but still a good solid hold for a prospective 40% gain IMHO.

All counter views welcome.

sd

PS. Wouldn't it be nice to have proper tabs for the layout!

stockdog - 18 Aug 2005 17:39 - 1366 of 2787

A question from today's interim report -

"To comply with new AIM Guidelines for Nominated Advisers issued by the London
Stock Exchange, it has been decided to make the following Board changes. I will
replace Ian Buckley as Executive Chairman. Ian will remain on the Board as a
Non-Executive Director. David Horner will leave the Board. These changes will
take place with immediate effect."

I thought separation of CEO and Chairman, not combination, was desirable. And how does one less non-exec help comply with AIM Guidelines?

Any ideas?

sd

overgrowth - 18 Aug 2005 17:55 - 1367 of 2787

sd - I believe it's all down to new guidelines on conflict of interests - directors of NOMADs can't also be directors in the AIM companies they represent or hold a significant stake in them.

stockdog - 18 Aug 2005 18:02 - 1368 of 2787

And they presumably don't want to pay out more director's fees for a replacement for David Horner who we assume has the conflict of interest??

snakey - 18 Aug 2005 18:37 - 1369 of 2787

Eric, yes a little less than expected, but what the hell !! still a good bet.
here`s yer Oirish one and no offence intended to anyone. also, apologies for using real names, as it does help when you feel you know someone !!! here goes:

Three Leprechauns, Mick, Eugene and Pat, are sitting in the pub getting
quietly pissed when Mick shouts out, " Jaysus, I'm bored wit bein' a feckin'
nobody. I'm tinkin I'll take meself down to de Guinness Book of Records office
and get meself entered in da book"
"What da hell are ya talkin' about, ya eejit. You've dun nuttin' to getin da book
for" says Eugene.
Well, it's me hands, Eugene" replies Mick waving them around, " I tink dey are
da smallest in da world and I'm going to get meself entered into da book and I'll
be world famous."

Both Eugene and Pat agree that they are quite small hands and they all carry on
drinking quite heartily.

A little while later Pat pipes up " Ya know Mick, if youse can get into da Guinness
Book of Records for yer small hands, so can I."

The other two smirk at each other and Mick says "how can ya have da smallest
hands in the world if I've got dem, ya bloody fool ?"

Pat replies "it's not me hands, Mick it's me feet", and he takes off his boots to show
them. " I tink dat dey are da smallest feet in da world and I'm gonna get meself
entered into da Guinness Book of Records too."

The other two agree that they are quite small and with that they all go back
to their drinking.

Some time later Eugene chimes in, "well, if youse two can get into dis book of
records, I can too."

The others fall about laughing. "what da feck have you got dats so feckin' interesting?"
cries Mick. "It's me dick, Mick " he says and pulls down his breeches to show them.
They both howl with laughter as Eugene pulls out his little willy.

"Jaysus, ye've got the best chance of us all, Eugene", says Pat; "dat's da smallest
feckin' dick I ever saw" and with that they all go back to their drinking.

Later on, full to the gills , they`re heading home when out of the corner of his eye
Mick spots the Guinness Book of records office along the street.

Jaysus", he says "I'm gonna go into dat office and I'm gonna get me hands
measured" and off he staggers.
Ten minutes later he comes out with a big smile on his face waving his hands in
the air. "I did it, I did it" he says "I'm in da Guinness Book of records for da
smallest hands in da world , nobodies got smaller hands dan me" and with
that he pushes Pat forward "Go on ya eejit. See if ye have de smallest feet
in da world. Go on"
"Feck it I will " says Pat and off he staggers. Ten minutes later he comes out with
a big smile on his face, kicking his feet in the air.

"Jaysus, I'm famous." he says. "I've got da smallest feet in da world, I'm famous,
I'm famous " he yells.

With that, Eugene staggers to the office door. "I'm gonna get me dick measured"
he says, "I won't be long". The other two are waiting anxiously for Eugene to
return, but time slips by. Ten minutes turns into twenty and twenty into thirty.
Still no sign of Eugene.

One hour later the office door swings open and Eugene slouches, looking
Disconsolate. "Whats wrong ?" asks Pat, to which Eugene replies.......
Who the feckin hell is Eric Robson?

Paulo2 - 19 Aug 2005 08:24 - 1370 of 2787

How far back do people see us dropping?

ptholden - 19 Aug 2005 08:31 - 1371 of 2787

Difficult to judge Paulo. The irony is that the company has posted a profit and the SP is falling! Will take a week or so for the news to circulate and then (hopefully) new investors will be able to take stock (pardon the pun). It's a crazy world when OEP post a loss and rise 15% first thing this morning!!

pth

Paulo2 - 19 Aug 2005 08:40 - 1372 of 2787

I'm definitely waiting until the dust settles, PT. I was thinking of trading a few around my core holding but the MMs are just giving stupid quotes this morning, especially seeing as we've just posted a 290,000 profit.

stockdog - 19 Aug 2005 08:53 - 1373 of 2787

Looking at the descending triangle formed with a base at .69p on 14th July and a peak at .825p on 18th July, and treating it as reversal pattern rather than the more normal continuation pattern, we could expect to retrace by as much as the difference between these two prices below the base - i.e. down to .555p.

However, on reflection on our disappointment compared to our expectations, there must really be very very few of us who relied on this BB for their information relative to the wider shareholding group. I would guess that the great majority of shareholders were either much less optimistic or largely ignorant until publication of results which show a very impressive turnaround over last year. Now that DGT is trading profitably with cash in the bank and prospects (judging TR's words) that H2 will be pretty much as good as H1, I would have thought there may well be buying interest from a whole new group of investors.

A question I have asked on SEO thread - is today the end of a T20 period when the MM's might just have dropped the SP to catch cash-free punters on the hop? Across my whole portfolio all SP's have dropped on no news for no real reason and yet the market as a whole is not generally depressed this week. Is this a T20 phenomenon or somethihng else going on?

sd

m0dulus - 19 Aug 2005 09:24 - 1374 of 2787

SD

I holding onto my 300k for now although i am at a loss....but i will hold out for 1p+ in the near future...its a patient game...am i right in thinking this?

I am willing to hold onto my shares for a year or so.....

stockdog - 19 Aug 2005 09:42 - 1375 of 2787

m0dulus - what can I say?

All the sells this morning are a) quite few and b) very small. I see no one of any substantial holdings (Eric's virility test and above!) selling. But we could need to wait till nearer the end of the year to get back on an upward track from here. Meanwhile, we could fall lower as I've said above.

Depends how much interim pain you are prepared for. However, guessing you bought at about .74p (where I myself last topped up - ouch!) I do think we will see that level again by December.

The real decision, though, is whether you can find another share that will return you more on the current cash value of your holding (net of both sets of dealing costs and spreads) than by holding. Your shares have no memory or emotional value system!

No, I'm not going to actually answer your question (reflecting a genuine ambivolence, although I am not selling), but I hope the above thoughts are helpful.

Good luck whatever you decide to do.

sd

m0dulus - 19 Aug 2005 09:47 - 1376 of 2787

Nice one SD....i think i will be one of the patient ones and stick to it till the end of the year if not this time next year. I am hopeful people will have sense and invest for long term.

Take care

m0d

rawsthornebj001 - 19 Aug 2005 10:56 - 1377 of 2787

Is anyone going to average down?

Walktall - 19 Aug 2005 11:09 - 1378 of 2787

In my case it would be averaging up and I still intend holding.

WT.

stockdog - 19 Aug 2005 11:10 - 1379 of 2787

I guess I will watch a while - maybe set a tentative top up level of sub-0.51p the last support. If it dipped below and stabilised I might go in. If it fell through, we're back down to 0.40p level which must be a screeaming buy, absent any change in fundamentals.

Otherwise buy on next definitive reinstatement of up movement.

I see a couple of brave small time buyers in at 0.60p. Nice if they are right. Total trades valued at just over 10k to day - not many either - still no one serious selling.

Watch out for TR topping up - now he's delivered the interims he is out of the close period. This could set a floor under the SP.

sd

stockdog - 19 Aug 2005 13:11 - 1380 of 2787

Perhaps I was overly prepared for the worst. Some modest buyers back in and SP moving back up, but I expect we shall continue to see some selling into strength (viz the 1m sell just now) over the next few weeks from those who feel they have made their money on this one and want to move onto some quicker bucks.

I'm not moved to top up, since holding sufficient weighting in my portfolio and no spare cash burning a hole at present. Very happy holding what I've got.

sd

arawli - 19 Aug 2005 13:20 - 1381 of 2787

SD

I think you will find the last 2 trades although showing as sells were in fact buys as they were delayed by an hour.

I am still holding all my shares and will be holding for a long while yet. I think we will se short term troughs and spikes but as long as the business keeps coming in I can't see a problem.

Remember this is now an AIM company that is actually making a profit which is quite a rarity.

All the best

Andy
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