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Bit of an 8ft x 6ft RED - warning flag ....is a-fluttering

New York Times

The first time in recent.... decades
- that total margin debt exceeded... 2.25 percent.... of G.D.P.
- came at the end of 1999, amid..... the technology stock ....bubble.
- Margin debt fell..... after that bubble.... burst,

but
- to rise again during the..... housing boom
- when anecdotal evidence said some investors were using their investments to secure loans that went for down payments on homes.

That boom in ...margin loans ...also....
.... ended badly......

In fact it seems whenever margin debt reaches 2.25% .....the stock market crashes

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/01/business/economy/shades-of-prerecession-borrowing.html

So are we around the red flag ....2.25%..... historical - crash warning level now

Apparently - Margin debt has now risen to about...... 2.4 percent..... of GDP

May not crash this week, or next week - but it seems "the writing is on the wall" by way of forewarning
(And - in rather - large letters - imo)

By way of a visual warning
- the GREY areas indicate when margin debt - exceeds 2-25%
- The chart after....the Grey areas
- represents the S & P......in the month that follows



Place your bets ??
- NB - the bottom right hand chart is - where we are....now :o)

Former FRENCH Foreign.....minister says .....

Britain...... had been planning a war against Syria some.....
- two years .....before ..... the unrest broke out in the Arab country.

http://www.presstv.com/detail/2013/06/16/309276/uk-planned-war-on-syria-before-unrest/

The statement by Roland Dumas came during a recent interview with
- French Parliamentary TV network, LCP.

“I’m going to tell you something...... I was in England
- two years.... before the violence in Syria ...on other business.
- I met with top British officials, who ....confessed to me
- that they were preparing something in Syria,” said Dumas.

He continued by saying, “This was in Britain not in America.
- Britain
- was organizing ......an invasion of rebels into Syria.

They even asked me, although I was no longer minister for foreign affairs,
- if I would like to..... participate.”

Gaz - Syria/Lebanon is about oil.
Afghanistan is about natural gas & copper.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-war-is-worth-waging-afghanistan-s-vast-reserves-of-minerals-and-natural-gas/19769


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Syria

http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/04/26/lebanons-oil-fields-expected-to-exceed-israel/

Agree squirrel. Like any other war, if there wasn't anything to gain from it why bother fighting over it?

The fact that 100000 people have died already and only now that supposedly 100 people died from the use of chemical weapons does Obama take steps to enter this war. Never mind the genocide that happened in many other African countries, but as there is nothing there for them to steal, why bother?

Squirrel, could you add the gold chart next to the silver daily and year chart please?
Don't know why, but I miss it :-)
Saves me looking elsewhere

Squirrel - his book is worth reading too

(Major General... Smedley Butler
- the...most decorated US marine in history)
- he seems amply qualified and experienced to pass opinion.

The following is an excerpt from a speech he gave in 1933:

�War is just a racket.
- A racket is best described, I believe, as ...that is not what it seems to the majority of people.
Only a small inside group.... knows what it is about.
It is conducted for the benefit of the very few... at the expense of the masses.

I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. If a nation comes over here to fight, then we'll fight. The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6 percent over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100 percent. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag.

I wouldn't go to war again ...as I have done
- to protect some lousy investment of the bankers.

- There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other... is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason
- is simply a racket.

There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to.
- It has its "finger men" to point out enemies,
- its "muscle men" to destroy enemies,
- its "brain men" to plan war preparations,

- and a "Big Boss"... Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism.

It may seem odd for me, a military man to adopt such a comparison.
- Truthfulness compels me to.

I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period,

I spent most of my time.... being a high class muscle- man

- for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers.

In short,..... I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.

I suspected I was just part of a racket at the time. Now ......I am sure of it.

Like all the members of the military profession, ....I never had a thought of my own .....until I left the service.

My mental faculties remained in suspended animation
- while I obeyed the orders of higher-ups.
- This is typical with everyone in the military service.

I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for.... American oil interests in 1914.
- I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for... the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in.
- I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics... for the benefits of Wall Street.
- The record of racketeering is long.
- I helped purify Nicaragua for ...the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-1912.
- I brought light to the Dominican Republic.... for American sugar interests in 1916.
-In China I helped to see to it that.... Standard Oil went its way unmolested.

During those years, I had, as the boys in the back room would say,.... a swell racket.

Looking back on it,
- I feel that I could have given Al Capone a few hints.
- The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts.
I operated...... on three continents.�

(Should be on the compulsory reading syllabus - in schools imo)

On afghanistan
- whilst the US "discovered" :o)
- with their whizz bank technology - once they got in....
- several trillion in minerals & resources
(which they offered - to help - the afghans exploit)

However - the same info had been publicly available on an - afghan ministry of minerals website.....for many years - prior to the US .... erm - discovering them.

In addition
- the Talibanny boyz had virtually wiped out - poppy production
(Afghanistan had previously supplied 80/90% of the worlds - heroin)

Earlier this year - poppy production - was back up to around ....90% of it's former capacity.

The military aren't allowed to.... interfere.
- Why ? - in official military speak - destroying it - would result in major lost employment & income to afgahans
- which - would alienate the hearts and minds of the local population - leading them to potentially side and assist with alCIAda - etc
(I kid you not)

So the tomato growing didn't work then Gaz.

Snurks - do you want the big black kitco gold chart?

Squirrell - lol - I think the seeds keept bunging up the syringes :o)

Squirrel, the small one will do, but now I've seen the big black one... it makes the need for glasses redundant :-)

Ok snurks - know what you mean about the glasses.

Squinting squirrel at your service.

Gaz - lol!

Following on from the charts I posted on the other side as sahara, it seems the miners are still holding in the 'Wave-E' formation and the lower line of the bullish 'Wedge' is holding. Awaiting the Fed decision. It could pop nicely to the upside confirming the Inv 'H&S' on the daily charts but we need the price confirmation....



S.

Some issues with the chart loading. I have pasted the linkable version url into the image location but it doesn't load?/

S.

Good to see you here S. Love your 'new' name.

Hope you had a safe time away. Are you back at base for awhile?

Got a couple of interesting pieces.
One is the link to the daily Bill Holter and the other one is a copy email from his Miles Franklin-buddy David Schectman

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/the-most-well-advertised-bank-run-in-history


From David's Desk

David Schectman

Gold and Silver Scream BOTTOM! BOTTOM!

In today's daily, I point out that the Fed has surrendered a lot of their gold in order to hold down the price. You do realize that this is a ploy that can't go on forever. Not with the massive buying coming out of China and India, as highlighted today by our own Ranting Andy Hoffman. Their goal is to discourage YOU from buying gold and hope instead that you will invest in the stock market and purchase U.S. Treasuries. But you know better, at least I hope you do by now.

Rick Ackerman says, "If trader can push Gold above $1,370 today, it will be bullish. It is an important inflection point." Ed Steer says, "It should be an interesting day for all four precious metals today and to be ready for anything."

Ted Butler wrote:

It's only because JPMorgan is so smart, powerful...and adept at manipulating markets...that they have been able to amass such a large gold long and small short silver position. The truth is maybe they can add more to the gold long and reduce the silver short position with still lower manipulated prices, but we have to be in the terminal phase of this operation in terms of gauging how many more sellers can be lured in at this point. There is a limit to such engineered speculative selling. Therefore, since JPM is running out of road as to how much more gold and silver they can buy before we reach the resolution, it is no exaggeration to say that we are running out of time in which to buy cheap silver...and gold.

-Butler Research, June 15, 2013



I know, it is discouraging, all of this back and forth in a narrow trading range, with the threat of a further fall hanging over our head. It's even discouraging to me; but such is life. But more and more top analysts are coming out with their belief that we are either at or very near the bottom.

The following 3-year weekly charts on gold and silver scream BOTTOM! BOTTOM!

(sorry can't copy these pictures)

Ed Steer wrote:

Not only are we at the bottom of the barrel in price terms...and in the Comex futures market as well...but it is more than obvious when one looks at the 3-year weekly charts for both metals. As Ted said on the phone yesterday...a major low is being set.

Both these charts are courtesy of JPMorgan et al...as there is nothing free market about either of them. The MACD and RSI traces are at lows probably never seen before...and both metals are well below their respective 200-day moving averages...and are probably the most oversold in the history of either metal, certainly going back over a decade.

-Ed Steer, Casey Research, June 19 2013

Sincerely,

David Schectman

Miles Franklin

Sahara - assume you have picked up the right click, then properties then url for the chart.

Then click on the - post image box above the post box



Then, the bit that causes probs
- delete the http - in the pop up box
(otherwise you get http twice - been there and got the T shirt :o)

Should work

- nice to see you over here
- are you on holiday...again :o)

I viewed 'image info' on chart as properties are not shown on the stockcharts right click dropdown, anyway that seems to work whereas the original URL failed?/

The HTTP in the insert an image is hi-lited and is deleted when image url is inserted so that was not the issue.

I am still beavering away up until the end of month perhaps so don't have a great deal of time for posting but wanted to show you the 'potential' for a bottom around here in the miners at least.

I have wizzed through some not all of the posts trying to catch up, so appologiesd if I have missed anything.

S.

Welcome to - stalag U.K

On Monday the Guardian
- carried a story that...... British intelligence
- had spied on delegates at two G20 summits,
those chaired by Gordon Brown in 2009. Laptops and mobile phones had been hacked, and internet cafes installed and bugged.

BUT
- With many of the ..same heads of government.... gathering for the G8 summit in Northern Ireland,
- the story was, to put it mildly, sensational.

The source was the American whistleblower, Edward Snowden, whose revelations about the US National Security Agency had been running in the Guardian and Washington Post for a week.

It was..... initially...... hinted at by other British media but.....
- was covered by a D-notice
(warning against publishing anything that could damage national security)
from... the government.

It vanished ..from general view.
- When the foreign secretary, William Hague, was questioned by the BBC on Monday, no mention was made of the affair.

The media.... has been bidden... to ignore the story and.... has done so.

This was despite it running in leading newspapers round the world, from America and Europe ...................to China and Russia....................

So..... you can even read it in China & Russia - but
- other than the Guardian........NOT in the MSM
- in Stalag U.K

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/19/uk-response-to-nsa-story-back-off-shut-up

John Embry of Sprott asset

I firmly believe that the bullion banks,
(which have been the major perpetrators of the gold suppression for many years),
- realize that the ‘jig .....is almost up.’
- And ....they are making a heroic and what appears to be a successful effort to change their (gold and silver short) book around
(to being long the metals).

Because the sentiment in the whole sector is so negative, there are all sorts of other speculators replacing them on the short side.
- I find this absolutely unfathomable from an intellectual point of view,
- but in reality it’s happening.
I believe this is one of the pre-conditions that is required before the price of gold and silver ....goes nuts to the upside.

.........................The one thing the powers that be realize is............................

- the banking system is so compromised that....
- the last thing they want to see is .......these guys (the bullion banks) on the wrong side of gold and silver
- when the prices explode to the upside.

Currently
- they are fixing that situation,
- and we are very close to getting into a position where.....
gold and silver will be released to the upside.”
kwn