The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

Thank you Eric-will check out Blue Index and maybe have a go!

Eric asked me to cast an eye over the technicals of the second ASOS table which I am happy to do, albiet briefly. Now my comments are necessarily brief, and you are of course all welcome to have completely different views and opinions. One proviso up front it is somewhat difficult to reach meaningful conclusions on small cap shares that do not have much liquidity...but there may be some guidance from recent SP movements.
Here goes using MoneyAM's own charting package where I can:

Thursday 17th - using the last published Table:

SEO: SP falling back from overbought levels. Recent placing price provides support at 12.75p. However there is a further chart support at 11.8p, if it falls back through these levels and down below 10p we will have to wait and see where it bounces before reaching any new conclusions. Remeber after sucha sharp breakout we need to see a downward movement to establish the stocks chart position, and as such the uptrend is still very much in place. Only nervous holders would sell and in fact if it haolds at current levels for a few days I will BUY some more myself!

NLR: A very Bullish Chart! Clearly the SP has risen significantly of late and what we are seeing now is some consolidation from overbought levels. The uptrend since mid Jan has been dramatic and not once has the SP fallen back to test the 10 day ma. I would place the top of the current narrow resistance trend line around 6.80.

BGT: Very small Mkt Cap, massive rise since mid Jan. Consolidation for a while with MACD falling away at present. May be a better buying opportunity, maybe not! Would have to study company and take a view, perhaps the 'bright people' that bought in early can tell us as there is little data to work on!!

CFP: Another small Mkt Cap so not much to say, except that the SP has found support at 0.3p and resistance at 0.45p. Currently indicators suggest further falls.

DGM: Strong chart, with upper resistance trend line at 25.4p and lower at 20.3p Suggest holders watch for these levels and if they break out either way on a 2 day close basis you can take a view.

BPRG: As current holders of this stock will know this is a traders dream share. With large momentum driven swings. Currently the SP is looking for support at 75p after spending some time testing the downside around 62 - 65p if it dinds it then the upper target is perhaps 100p and beyond.

AGL: Strong uptrend Upper resistance 164p lower 148p.

MLS: The big drop from 20p in early November overhangs the Stock. All indicators failry neutral with the SP becalmed in the 8p area. Some further weakness on my indicators for what it's worth. The SP will have to move up through the 20p zone again for it to regain the Bulls confidence.

BGC: Support at 90p and with early hints of a recovery underway. Possible 110p target.

MDW: A lovely golden cross in mid Jan where the 50 day ma went throught the 200. We have a slow uptrend with a resistance level at 11.3p and lower support at 6.2p, but I favour the mid point bounce at 8.6p for a further attempt at the upper resistance level.

CEY: Well the SP looks like it's heading for around the 50 day ma support level at 12p, with an upper resistance target at 15.5p if that helps. Resource stocks look good for the longer term so I plan to investigate further.


Thats all for now as I have to turn my attention to the US markets. As I said before please comment as you see fit and hopefully in a positive vein before I continue trawling through the rest of these excellent selections.

John

John

That's brilliant: not only helps with the individual stocks we are interested in but also helps in understanding the priniples of technical analysis you are following. Many thanks for the efforts.

Eric

Got caught up with some interesting threads and had to have my 2 penn'orth. So not got onto the analysis - Sunday pm probably. Apologies, folk. far too many SEO-brations these days, as well!

Eric

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO - 19th feb.

A less dramatic week with the portfolio , which is good for the ticker! Some good profits so worth listening to the master, Jim Slater, in this week's Sunday Times:

"What is the most important lesson you have learnt about money?"
"To run profits and cut losses. That way you get big profits and small losses. Ninety percent of investors get it wrong because its human nature to snatch a profit and not recognise or admit to a loss. As a result they invariably get small profits and large losses".

epic cost___ shares_ price_ value gain% week
SEO_ 7.19___ 456900_ 15.5__ 70820 115.6 -8.8 BBSSUUW(137)
NLR_ 394.5__ 5080___ 598.5_ 30404 51.7_ -0.7 CDMM(137)
BGT_ 130.5__ 7660___ 192.5_ 14746 47.5_ 8.5_ JJ(137)
CFP_ 0.28___ 3570000 0.380_ 13566 35.7_ 0.0_ WY(137)
DGM_ 18.19__ 110000_ 24.375 26813 34.0_ 6.0_ BEMS(137)
AGL_ 128.25_ 3900___ 163.5_ 6377_ 27.5_ 4.5_ B(137)
PCI_ 10.625_ 47000__ 13.25_ 6228_ 24.7_ 11.5 T
BPRG 67.25__ 14870__ 83.5__ 12416 24.2_ -0.6 TT(137)
HCEG 63_____ 7935___ 76.5__ 6070_ 21.4_ 11.7 O
GHH_ 191.5__ 2610___ 228.5_ 5964_ 19.3_ 6.5_ G
MLS_ 7.19___ 69500__ 8.375_ 5821_ 16.5_ -1.5 W(137)
CEY_ 12.625_ 39600__ 14.375 5693_ 13.9_ -0.9 I(137)
MOB_ 230.75_ 2165___ 260.5_ 5640_ 12.9_ 0.4_ C
RSG_ 466.25_ 1070___ 522.5_ 5591_ 12.1_ 1.5_ P
BGC_ 84.8___ 5900___ 94.0__ 5546_ 10.8_ -4.3 K
THUS 15.19__ 32900__ 16.625 5470_ 9.4__ 0.8_ O
BAG_ 811____ 615____ 881.0_ 5418_ 8.6__ 1.2_ P
KCOM 62_____ 16100__ 67.25_ 10827 8.5__ 2.3_ OO
GWP_ 120.25_ 8315___ 130.0_ 10810 8.1__ -4.1 EE
TND_ 22.5___ 111000_ 24.25_ 26918 7.8__ 12.8 LLLLR
IDS_ 212.5__ 4700___ 229.0_ 10763 7.8__ -0.2 GH
SPS_ 50.5___ 49500__ 54.0__ 26730 6.9__ 4.9_ AHIKK
MDW_ 9.09___ 165000_ 9.6___ 15881 5.9__ -8.3 SV(137)
DFD_ 136____ 3675___ 143.5_ 5274_ 5.5__ -3.0 A
BPG_ 667.625 1500___ 700.0_ 10500 4.8__ 0.1_ DP
CIU_ 162.25_ 3080___ 167.5_ 5159_ 3.2__ 2.1_ G
ACE_ 258.25_ 1935___ 266.0_ 5147_ 3.0__ 0.8_ G
TRT_ 87_____ 5750___ 87.8__ 5046_ 0.9__ -4.4 K
AUG_ 256.25_ 3900___ 257.5_ 10043 0.5__ -1.5 DE
NRG_ 220.25_ 2270___ 220.25 5000_ 0.0__ -0.6 C
EPD_ 51_____ 9805___ 50.5__ 4952_ -1.0_ 11.0 I
XEN_ 7.44___ 67200__ 7.4___ 4939_ -1.2_ 0.7_ v
PAY_ 255.75_ 1955___ 251.5_ 4917_ -1.7_ 3.1_ m
IDOX 11.75__ 42500__ 11.25_ 4781_ -4.3_ -6.3 v
CASH 142.25_ 7030___ 135.0_ 9491_ -5.1_ -5.6 CD
NML_ 5.31___ 85750__ 5.0___ 4288_ -5.8_ -2.3 W
FTO_ 8.69___ 57500__ 8.125_ 4672_ -6.5_ -3.0 Y
CRDA 327.375 1525___ 305.12 4653_ -6.8_ -12.4 P
KYS_ 15.875_ 63000__ 14.25_ 8978_ -10.2 0.0_ UU
PDX_ 231____ 6495___ 202.5_ 13152 -12.3 5.7_ AJT
PMD_ 0.875__ 571400_ 0.75__ 4286_ -14.3 -6.3 Y
DES_ 62.25__ 8030___ 53.0__ 4256_ -14.9 0.5_ H
BNH_ 125.25_ 15970__ 105.5_ 16848 -15.8 -9.4 AIRR
PET_ 53.75__ 18600__ 44.8__ 8324_ -16.7 -4.8 JR
ASC_ 78.5___ 25480__ 62.0__ 15798 -21.0 -4.6 ZZZZ
PKL_ 192.25_ 2600___ 149.5_ 3887_ -22.2 -3.2 H
TAD_ 9.375__ 53300__ 6.75__ 3598_ -28.0 -12.9 Y

totals___________________ 502492.7 14.2 -1.0
small-cap_ 2891.87 2959.5 450290.0 2.3_ -0.4

The number opposite some shares is the reference to a post made by johngtudor, our in-house charting guru, on that particular share. He aims to cover more over a period of time - I believe this will increase the value of the portfolio as a source of leads for each of us.

SEO still leads the way although down on the week. In fact it has tested and established, probably, a support level at 12.825p, the price of the recent placing. It seems likely that there was a shorting on Monday which had to be covered on Friday this bringing the sp back up. Interesting which way the sp moves on Monday with the prelims coming up Monday week.

NLR. Interesting comments by John. However, since written the sp has come back to test the 10 day MA. I have topped up but there could be profit-takers around after a long bull run.

BGT. One that beats the charters because of the lack of history. The "Bubble" console for pre-school children sounds terrific. Any comment, Jules?

CFP. Again, nothing much to get hold of from the charting point-of-view. Those of us backing it base outr faith on the professional management team taking it forward. Broking and flotation services for AIM companies, which is certainly a growth market.

You forget Legend at your peril! He has the main mover of the week in TND. The charts look as though they are testing a long-term resistance level. Interesting to hear, legend, why you put all your eggs in this particular basket and your view of the potential.

Legend had the winner in the last challenge, BNH. Looking down the list there are a number of companies which have fallen back aftere good runs, including are very own ASOS. BNH is looking very interesting at this level - again legend is a better person to explain and comment how he sees it from here.

bos and seb still lead the way on the back of SEO. moneyplus rises to 4th and is the best-paced of those who don't hold SEO. Team is still ZZZZZZZZing but watch out for ASC shooting up the table before long!

B 73.2_ D 13.1_ I -0.2
S 67.8_ E 12.7_ A -3.3
W 38.4_ O 11.8_ Y -3.3
M 34.1_ G 8.3__ H -5.6
U 29.5_ L 7.7__ R -10.1
J 16.5_ K 6.4__ Z -21.0
C 15.1_ P 4.6
T 15.1_ V 1.5

Have a good week's trading.

Eric

EW sorry, have had a hectic week.. will try and answer questions re Bright things more fully this week, but yes, The bubble concept is a good un and nursery teachers are very excited about it too.... If all goes to plan in the next few months then this share should double fairly quickly...It is speculative...but hey, fortune favours the brave:-)
EW, Does my AEN not rate on the table above?

Jules: thanks. Re holdings: you have always been down for 10K BGT. 5K PET and 5K PCI so don't know where AEN comes in? Eric

ohhhhhh! didnt think i would still be top of the league after last week. but here i am . sebs close, and then a gap is appearing. bit like the premiership.(bagsy being united)

Eric - not sure where you got the CRDA price from, but it would help my cause if you corrected it! Still confident the "tortoise" portfolio will do OK.

EW, you not been taking your memory tablets:-))

- 20 Jan'05 - 21:25 - 5 of 144 edit



Eric , would like to parrticipate, and the shares I would like to distribute the money between are (10k)BGT,(5k) AEN and(5k) MDW

BGT is a company started by the guys who owned Eidos and started Lara Croft.
AEN..the potential is threefold, just hope it doubles by July:-)
MDW is my baby in the medical sector. Have a money saving, proven PSA test for prostate cancer that can save the NHS millions

23 Jan'05 - 22:33 - 46 of 145 edit



Eric... well done but I thought I had chosen AEN, BGT, and MDW (not PCI and PDX) ta muchly for sorting it out

and here is your reply......Whoops:-))
24 Jan'05 - 20:21 - 56 of 145


Many thanks for feedback and corrections.
Jules: deleted PCI and PDX; added AEN at 697.5p and MDW at 9.09.
ramu: corrected PET to 53.75p, unfortunately.
snakey: corrected TAD to 9.94p, again unfortunately.
chad: sorry, but only fair to stick to the deadline. Comp. runs to 1st July;
if enthusiasm persists, no doubt we will repeat.
moneyplus: will drop a line to Shares re interest; re publicity; re prize(s).
kus: ASC are benchmark share; thus allocation to team; allocation Z because sandrew would not be happy if not A!

Any other corrections?


Big kiss anyway for organising the fun:-)

blimey - its all fun and games on this thread!!!

SM

Many thanks for the update eric, good to see Seymour Pierce's buy note for the daddy share! could be a very good buying opp for asc..

Jules

Sorry for that. Not perfect after all! Would be awful to be perfect in an imperfect world! Will start taking gingko - if I remember! Jules has spoken and it will come to pass forthwith, which means next weekend. Moves you into closer order with those vieing for 3rd. Thanks for info - really excited about BTG's Bubble (may be second childhood!) I wonder if shareholders will get special terms?

partridge. Whoops, another one. 345.125p Up into the top half. Will correct next week.

Eric

Eric

EW... wouldn't be the same if you were too perfect. You'll do as you are:-)
The bubble is exciting and as soon as I get the info , I will post..
have a good one!!

Tuesday 22nd - Continuing my thoughts on the technicals of the Challenge stocks, feedback on any aspect welcome as per my earlier post 137. I am using Eric's post 122 as a reference although I note some changes are planned in holdings next week.

GWP: There was a bullish crossover of both the 10/20 day m.a. through the 50 day earlier this month. However we have the indicators currently suggesting a retest of the 130p resistance/support zone currently. If the stock can build a base here and go on to conquer the 200 day m.a. (137p) and then go up through the 140p level we can start looking to the heavens again. However the 200 day ma does look to be providing stern resistance and you will note it recently failed to break through.

MOB: The chart of this stock represents a classical up trend. Currently pausing for some breath although the Stochastic is starting to rise from oversold levels. I have transferred this stock into another charting package (ie I am not using the Money AM charting facility) and note it sits right on the middle of a rising uptrend at 263p with upper resistance at 302p and support at 225p.

GHH: I must confess to having a great interest in this stock having held it myself on and off for several years. It is clearly in breakout mode and attacking the glories of the 2000 - 01 era. Where next, well I think as the indicators all look a little overbought, (although this does not necessarily mean that the SP cannot continue to rise) some retracement will be helpful to build the chart. We are clearly looking to target 250p and beyond over the next month or so.

PCI: Well I thought this stock was doomed as I tipped it for the challenge, but it's next level of resistance is 14p - 16p so all is not lost... but we might have some retracement before then. As an out and out gamble it could still fly.

RSG: Strong resistance now at 520 - 540p zone. SP seems to be consolidating at these levels after a strong bounce from the lows of early January. There is an interesting Fibonacci level at 570p so worth watching. If you are Long it's a strong hold.

DFD: Still in a strong uptrend. The Stochastic is showing signs of bouncing back from oversold levels so although most indicators are neutral at the moment we could well see another push to 160p and beyond...clearly though market sentiment will drive this SP. The 50 day ma seems to be a good SL though for profit takers.

HCEG: There is a musical that springs to mind when looking at this stock...up up and away...a lovely chart with strong bounces from the 50 day ma. There is a suggestion that we are currently at overbought levels, but the chart suggests continued upward momentum. I will need to discuss with Eric target dates for this challenge because looking closely at this particular SP (there is of course nothing certian in this world) one might be so bold as to make some predictions!

THUS: I think it is fair to say we all now about the trials and tribulations of the teleco stocks. THUS needs to break through the 200 day ma (19.3p but still falling) before anyone can get excited. A slow and long recovery seems to be underway, but first it has to get through 17p.

IDS: The chart reflects a strong uptrend with 300p in sight. Currently bounced off resistance at 244p and the indicators are still pointing down so better BUY opportunities will present themselves.

BAG: A strong uptrend with 950p in sight. I used the 20 day (simple) ma as a good reflection of the SP.

CRDA: Currently retracing but 380p target looks on the cards. I see support currently at 306p, but would if it was me use the 50 day ma at 334p as a good SL area.

KCOM: You can see that the 50 - 80p zone has been in play for the last year or so. I would like to see it go through 70p and beyond before feeling that we were really climbing having said that though we have bounced well since November last with a glorious golden cross last month. Indicators suggest its currently overbought (although this does seem to be the case with most of the small caps at the moment).

TRT: Although we are currently retracing if the SP can break through recent peaks of 95p we are looking at 120p+.

BPG: In my opinion this SP is heading for 750p and beyond with or without the collapse of the Post Office as we know it today! A textbook chart bouncing off the lows around 528p last November.

ACE: I think we are in for some consolidation at this SP bounded by the 50 day ma. Presumably upcoming news flow will move the SP one way or another. All indicators are neutral but the SP still in the strong uptrend from last summer. Assuming the uptrend does not break down we are looking at 400p+.

Must move on now and plan to finish review by end of week. I do hope some of these comments are useful to holders. From my own selfish perspective it has brought a number of buying opportunities onto my radar so thanks to the nominees for that! I note Evil has read the recent Seymour P note on ASOS and is not impressed, he thinks anyone who is not short is an ASOS...so methinks it is time to buy some more. My only other observation is that many of these wonderful stocks do seem to be slightly overbought at these levels so we probably will need to see some tracement before another upwards surge...so keep your powder dry!

John

John

Thanks a million! Excellent post but I know there is a lot of effort behind it. Realls adds a whole new dimension to the value of this column. Will work through the situations myself. The ones that bounce out and which have been on my watch-list for some time are DFD, who have raised funds for expansion without these being reflected in sp, and HCEG who are on a real winner with Ebiox wich seems as effective as anything in fighting MRSA.

Team: it would be helpful to have anything on the fundamentals of shares you hold to read with the technical analysis.

Eric

Eric,

I support the request for some fundamentals on these stocks there are some real crackers in there! As it takes ages to trawl through the respective BB's, if promoters could add some notes about where they see events going over the next 6 months with their selections we will build an excellent investment BB between us. Incidentally, I forgot to mention that I thought Shares magazine came out with an interesting copy the other week...after we started this BB...talking about the next ASOS! Someone somewhere must be reading this!

John

Hi Eric,

great job by the way and thanks for taking time out to do this, i actually find shares quite boring (but hopefully profitable one day) and things like this really do add interest.

Im qiute new to all this and have quite lazy approach (mainly due to time) but would like to share how i do things. Sorry about my ignorance but could you give us a quick explanation of what you mean, 'fundamentals' and 'technical analysis' ive looked in my Alvin Hall book and cant find it.

Most of my shares a quite speculative, where i read as much evidence/background as i can and then make a judgement on whether there is a future for that product. Im not one for studying charts, who is buying or selling etc, moving averages and all that jargon though im sure it works for many.

Transense Technologies TRT for instance make Tyre Pressure Monitoring Systems and Surface Acoustic Wave sensor systems for the automotive industry (see more at www.transense.co.uk). It is one i noticed about 5 years ago and a lot of these systems are a legal requirement in every vehicle in the US if that happens in this country it could fly. The SP just keeps going up on very little news and trading, so hopefully being bought by those in the know. LIcense agreement not longed been signed with Honeywell and the promise of more. To me its a matter of when not if.

Will post more thoughts at a later date when i know more about TA and F cheeres bye for now.

John thank you for your excellent work it's a great help. have you looked at GMC it's really breaking out. cheers MP