I am sure most peeps will know this is my favourite airline - I fly them and I buy them.

Currently I hold a quarter unit as a longer term investment which is also useful for shareholder benefits.

I will be looking to substantially add at the right time and not afraid to trade them either intraday or more probably as a swing trade.


ains




Shadow of conflict looms large over British Airways as firm fights to recover

TRACEY BOLES - Scotland on Sunday

BRITISH Airways will warn that the prospect of war with Iraq casts a long shadow over its full-year this week when it posts third quarter figures in line with expectations.

Lord Marshall, the BA chairman, is expected to tell analysts that political uncertainty could push the airline, still struggling to recover from the effects of September 11, further into reverse.

"Iraq is a key driver for everything," said a source close to the airline.

BA has admitted privately to analysts that transatlantic bookings for this March are "appalling" as the uncertainty stirred up by the prospect of war exerts an influence. Earnings estimate downgrades are now highly likely.

However, analysts believe a loss for the full year is still not on the cards.

Pre-tax estimates for the full year currently stand at up to 140m. BAs performance, which represents a strong recovery from the 180m loss posted in the equivalent quarter after September 11, has been driven by a vigorous cost-cutting programme rather than by revenue, which is still flat.

It will announce tomorrow that it is on track to achieve cost savings of 450m by the end of March through a process of shedding jobs and loss-making routes under its future size and shape strategy.

By the end of next month 10,000 jobs will have gone under the programme. "BA has weathered the storm better than most by getting costs under control," said one analyst. "In Europe, only Iberia has done likewise."

Third quarter operating profits are expected to be around 30m to 40m, in line with analysts expectations, with pre-tax figures between a 10m loss and 5m profit. The consensus is break even.

The airline has impressed experts by taking the threat posed by low-cost carriers seriously.

Geopolitical and economic problems are affecting demand air travel, especially on long-haul routes. BAs premium services are still under pressure, recent traffic figures revealed.

A speedy Gulf war will lead to a relief rally for the airline sectors shares which are depressed at the moment. However, BA itself has warned that prolonged conflict could trigger a slump in aviation equivalent to that seen after September 11.

Chris Tarry, former aviation analyst at Commerzbank who now runs CTAIRA said: "I believe that the last quarter has been very tough on the revenue side and indeed they have indicated this themselves.

"Unfortunately the outlook is no better - even without a war. The reality of the economic situation in the UK was underlined with the rate cut.

"Add to that the structural downward shift in fare levels and then the uncertainty over war - it doesnt bode well.

"Furthermore, given the uncertainty caused by Iraq let alone an actual war, it is pretty clear that the transatlantic market will be dire in the summer."

BA has traditionally depended on transatlantic traffic for its revenue.

Shells chairman, Sir Philip Watts, also admitted last week that the oil giant was preparing for "uncertain times" ahead.

He said Shell had looked at the range of possibilities that could occur and had "a plan for every eventuality".

ticking up?

it's 90.5p

it's at a 5 year low. possibly an all time low but can't remember what price they were floated at

In ainsey's little head it's ticking up. So it's ticking up, right.

F

yep tp Asia is fun I prefer to go over as a single man. Will probably have myself an Asian wife when I decide to stop playing around and move over there somewhere. Getting more and more tired of the UK.

Snappy-thats all i hear.
Ains BAY -'UNITS'- ticking up, OOHHHHHHHH, thats what he must of ment

Ains: I don't wish to be unkind. I'm just saying that you do seem to be a bit of a Jonah where shares are concerned. These two (BT.A and BAY) down 18% since you started posting a month ago; Izodia suspended and its cash stolen; and today's disaster, Ashtead (down 68% today, looks like another case of cash going missing). Couldn't you confine yourself, at least, to posting stuff that's relevant to the share price, instead of cutting and pasting every single thing you can find?

As for those 'units', I just hope they're small ones! (I suppose they are now, anyway.)

To be frank Diogenes you seem to be obsessed with talking about me losing .... the whole market is down - or haven't you noticed. If you want to comment on my trading you should note when I buy and sell and at what price.

BAY - I am averaging around 92p - They closed at 91p but this is a longer term play and I am deliberatly accumulating in these troubled times.

IZO were suspended three months ago and if you read the thread you will see the money is soon to be recovered and I should clear around 100%

AHT - I bought at a low some months ago and having closed some at a profit I held on to the others and losing half a unit less profits already taken

I note that despite the fact that I hold over 40 shares and have posted on most of them you avoid all my big winners like FDBK - THO - ENI - MTC - XAN - etc


By all means feel free to comment on my trading but try not to be so sective in the future otherwise peeps will assume you have a hidden agenda. Have a read of the opening post - this will give you a good idea what I intend doing ...... although this can change

As for my postings - I have always posted as I please and suggest you can either stop reading the threads which I originate or filter me. I will not be upset in any way.

Finally as I have traded since the age of 16 and have a grown up family I assume I am probably doing something right - don't you?

I do appreciate your continued interest and wish you well if we don't talk again


ainsoph

;-]]]

Well, ains, I have got a low boredom threshhold, if you like to call that a hidden agenda. :-)

Try trading a few more shares .... I would also get bored if I just played with a few at a time ....



ains

I trade UNITS in SIZE Ains, and how grown up is ur daughter if u invest(throwing away)money for her in ur 'daughters fund' for Uni???? Is she a mature student? Shes gonna get big Ol' debts now anyhow, eh, eh Ainsy Ol boy!?

AINSY,do you still fly Concorde every weekend using your minimum holding for the discount, I know you are raking in profits all round,

good old Keith

hack,splutter, cockroach, hahahaha


MINGY

ainsey,

you have been trading since you were 16, assuming you are now older than 17, why have you not stumbled across the concept of shorting? Why have you not learnt about charting? Stop-losses? Why are you not posting on the "upper-floors" of the BB world?

F

I can see myself adding a few more tomorrow as part of a longer term play. An interesting day with very high volume and volatility as the market crumbled and BA fell out of the top 100 ..... not to worry - they bounced back very quickly last time and I am sure they will do so again


ains




Top Stories UK
03/12 16:07
British Airways Needs `Some' Recovery to Meet 10% Margin Target
By James Regan


London, March 12 (Bloomberg) -- British Airways Plc, Europe's largest airline, needs ``some'' recovery in the air-travel market and a reduction in fuel prices to achieve a 10 percent operating- margin target, Finance Director John Rishton said.

The airline is sticking to cost-cutting goals of 650 million pounds ($1.05 billion) by March 2004 and another 450 million pounds by March 2005 and ``continuing to drive them through in all areas of the business where we see the opportunity,'' he said.

``We are not going to change the 10 percent target,'' Rishton said at the airline's investor day at its offices near London Heathrow Airport. ``We absolutely believe that we have to deliver it. We do need some help from the market to get there.''

British Airways and rivals have cut fares to win customers as a slowing economy, a decline in corporate travel and concern about terrorism and the threat of war in Iraq discourage people from flying. The carrier said March 5 that February passenger traffic fell 5.6 percent from a year earlier, led by a 14.3 percent drop in premium, or first- and business-class, traffic.

``The market will recover by a certain extent,'' said Rishton. ``When and by how much, I don't know, but it will come back to a certain extent.''

The carrier's operating margin, or earnings before interest and taxes as a proportion of sales, was 7.6 percent in the nine months ended Dec. 31. Fiscal nine-month net income was 205 million pounds compared with a net loss of 99 million pounds in the year- earlier period.

Fuel Costs

British Airways' fuel costs will probably be 100 million pounds higher in fiscal 2004 than in fiscal 2003, Rishton said.

The airline spent 636 million pounds on fuel and oil in the nine months ended Dec. 31. Chief Executive Rod Eddington said last week that the price of fuel had risen to $373 a metric ton from $249 a ton six months ago.

Jet fuel accounted for 11 percent of the carrier's operating costs in the fiscal first half. British Airways has said it will save 63 million pounds in the first quarter, which ends June 30, after it fixed 50 percent of fuel costs for the period in advance.

``It is unrealistic to think fuel prices won't come down,'' Rishton said.

The airline will also need to ``absorb'' an increase of about 4 percent in seating capacity in fiscal 2004, he said, without giving details of possible changes in routes.

British Airways has taken 21 aircraft out of service since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and scrapped unprofitable routes, and it plans to cut 23 percent of its workforce by March 2004 to cut costs. The airline will limit capital expenditure to 400 million pounds or less, Rishton said.

Shares in British Airways fell as much as 5 pence, or 5.5 percent, to 86p and were down 4.7 percent at 86.75p as of 4:01 p.m. in London.

ainsy, ainsy
don`t rise to them. you are far too good to even be on this bb, you should be back on ADVFN, I have told them that you are quite willing to grovel and , well, schhh! admit the truth, you know the fiddle we had going , you know the illegal ramping we indulged in,


fugitive , back off when ainsy is cutting and pasting mate , or switch of your PC, I `ll be in there

ramp, camp, splat,kill the cockroaches

MEG

Guess it had to happen ..... not involved myself but maybe a few will be upset but it's the end game that counts .....

ains





March 13, 2003

Executive Club has its wings clipped
By Steve Keenan



BRITISH AIRWAYS is effectively to dump two thirds of its Executive Club members in an overhaul of the sprawling frequent-flyer scheme.
The Club has grown to five million members belonging to one of five versions of the scheme wordwide.

Such is its complexity that 26,000 rules relate to membership and redemptions. Business Travel last October revealed that because of the confusion caused, exasperated BA chiefs were spending a year analysing how best to hone the scheme down and reward its top business travellers. Now BA wants to focus on 1.4 million regular flyers and disenfranchise occasional travellers.

Martin George, BAs director of marketing, said: We have basically reached gridlock with Executive Club. Currently, when we want to make changes, we have to do so five times over.

A global Executive Club will now come into being on July 1, merging the five existing schemes into one programme, with a series of changes on how people qualify.

Mr George said: It is important that people who fly with BA feel suitably rewarded. They have to feel they are recognised appropriately. People involved with Executive Club should be ones who fly regularly a frequent-flyer scheme is for frequent flyers, very different from people who travel occasionally.

It will be tougher to qualify for Blue Card status, but Silver and Gold members will receive mileage premiums on eligible flights. In a drive to make BAs domestic and European network profitable and fight off low-cost carriers, fewer BA Miles will also need to be redeemed on many routes. Conversely, some long-haul routes will require more.

The plans have outraged occasional travellers, who accuse BA of elitism and of making it more difficult to gain rewards.

A spokeman for www.flyer-talk.com, a website devoted to issues concerning frequentflyer schemes, said: Not only do these changes make BA totally uncompetitive with other airlines, but dozens of BAs best customers have already announced they will no longer fly BA if these changes stand.

BA already has the most expensive programme in the industry, which only rewards premium passengers. What they have done is intolerable.

The website spokesman claimed that award levels have been raised by as much as 300 per cent, while it is harder to achieve Silver or Gold status. However, on the websites forum, many respondents backed BA. BA should reward the people that pay the money for the product, one said.

Mr George also said that enhancements would reward regular business travellers. For the first time, Club members in the UK will be able to use points for upgrades. It will also be possible to combine BA Miles and cash to buy tickets.

More fare classes will earn rewards, and Club members will also be able to book redemption tickets up to three days before departure, down from 14 days on routes where e-tickets are available.

another one in the back of the net for british airways then

Back in serious profit again .... which is nice and didn't take long .... will be availing myself of their services later today .... lots of press this morning and looking good - Iraq permitting



BA reduces supplier base in cost cutting plan
By Kevin Done, Aerospace Correspondent FT
Published: March 13 2003 16:21 | Last Updated: March 13 2003 16:21


British Airways is reducing its supplier base drastically as part of its plan to cut costs by a further 450m ($725.8m) during the next two years.


The group said that it had cut the number of its UK controlled suppliers from 14,000 a year ago to 5,000 and it was aiming to reduce this to about 2,000 by March 2005.

It is also planning significant cuts in the ranks of its 2,000 local suppliers overseas.

The airline is seeking to cut external expenditure by ten per cent or 300m during the next two years in addition to internally generated cost savings of 150m as it struggles to improve its profitability in a weakening air travel market. It has annual external expenditure of 3bn excluding fuel.

John Rishton, BA chief financial officer, told a meeting of BA investors and financial analysts, that the airline would only be able to achieve its target of ten per cent operating margins through a recovery in the market bringing higher revenues and also through a decline in fuel prices despite all the actions to cut costs.

It has forecast "flat" revenues for the coming financial year to the end of March 2004.

"The market will come back but when and how much, I don't know," said Mr Rishton.

He warned that BA would face significant headwinds from higher costs in the next financial year totalling an estimated 300m to 400m including higher fuel charges estimated at around 100m, higher landing charges and increases in pay, pensions and insurance.

Fuel accounts for some 11 per cent of BA's total costs and jet fuel has risen by about 50 per cent from $249 to $375 a tonne in the past six months. Hedging policies have reduced fuel costs by 63m in the first three months of this year.

Lord Marshall, BA chairman, said that the "current situation is as bad as the [global] aviation industry has ever experienced."

BA has reacted by launching a cost cutting drive aimed at making savings of 450m a year by March 2005 in addition to the current two year programme aimed at taking 650m out of the cost base by March 2004.

Silla Maizey, BA procurement director, said that a "massive shift" was under way in the airline supply base, as it sought to eliminate duplication, reduce assets and inventory and cut prices.

The airline was aiming to concentrate its long-term procurement strategy on building partnerships with around 100 strategic suppliers and close collaboration with a further 500.

Relationships with a further 1,500 suppliers would be much more opportunistic and transaction-based and usually carried out electronically.

"We think we need 2,000 suppliers," she said.

BA has already carried out 16 e-Auctions on a total spend of 18m and achieved a saving of 4.2m, or 23 per cent, for items ranging from courier services to stationery, headsets, blankets, seat leather and menus.

bloomberg

British Airways Plc (BAY LN) rose 6p, or 6.4 percent, to 99.25. Europe's biggest airline intends to reduce its supplier base as part of a plan to save 450 million pounds ($720 million) in the next two years, the Financial Times reported, citing Chief Financial Officer John Rishton.

BAY at the magick ..... need to fly through now



ains

I think this is too high and have shorted it today