rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Well done Skinny

Cheers chaps - Witching this morning, so maybe worth a few limit orders!

There you go BB.

I'm looking at shorting oil, plenty to suggest this years going to be oversupplied. Maybe take a ETFS, anyone else like minded?

Sounds reasonable - I trade (limited) SUK2 in my SIPP on occasion through HL, they have this list of Oil ETFs.

Well it hit 6,844 - 10 short of my limit sell.

I'm dubious of adding to FTSE shorts right now.

Iron Ore Prices Tumble as Chinese Buyers Beat a Retreat

By Rhiannon Hoyle SYDNEY--Prices of iron ore, one of the world's best-performing industrial commodities last year, have fallen to their lowest level in six months as Chinese buyers retreat from the market due to ebbing domestic steel production and burgeoning stockpiles. The price fall is good news for consumers like Asian steelmakers, but it poses a challenge to mining companies like Rio Tinto PLC that have bet billions of dollars on producing more iron ore, largely in expectation of healthy demand from China. Steel production in China, which buys three in every five tons of iron ore sold by sea, has been slowing since September, partly in response to a push by the country's leaders to cut the industry's bloated capacity and environmental pollution. Several furnaces have been shut down on government orders in the northern province of Hebei, which churns out roughly a quarter of the nation's steel. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the country's daily production rate of crude steel dropped to 2.01 million metric tons in December--its lowest level for the year. Slowing output has contributed to a buildup of material at the country's major ports, weakening demand for iron-ore imports. Figures showing that China's growth cooled slightly in the fourth quarter, as Beijing eased back on efforts to bolster the world's No. 2 economy, have also been a brake on demand. In the fourth quarter of 2013, China's economy grew 7.7% from a year ago, slower than the 7.8% it posted in the previous quarter, data from the statistics bureau showed. This is now feeding through to iron-ore prices, which fell only 7% last year compared with heftier declines for industrial commodities like coking coal and nickel, down 17% and 19% respectively. Until recently, traders had bet that China's heavy spending on subways, bridges and other infrastructure would keep demand for the steelmaking commodity high. "It is the dead of the northern winter and the market is looking for direction, and while the outlook for China in 2014 is considered to be pretty stable the market didn't take the GDP numbers very well," said Sydney-based UBS Analyst Tom Price. The global iron-ore benchmark--set at China's Tianjin port in the country's north--fell 2% to US$124.80 a ton Monday, its weakest level since July last year, according to data from The Steel Index. Iron ore is now down 7% since the beginning of the year, having declined nine of the past 11 trading days. Trade has been hit by the onset of winter, which makes it more difficult for steelmakers to bring in commodities by ship. Steel mills also appear to have enough iron ore on hand to last them into next month, analysts said. That runs counter to historical trends for this time of year when prices hold steady, or even rise, as the winter freeze passes and steelmakers look to top up their stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year celebrations. But the holiday starts relatively early this year, on Jan. 31, which gives steel mills little time to make substantial purchases before the weeklong festivities. "Instead they had been restocking quite aggressively before the winter period," which helped keep a floor under prices in late 2013, said Mr. Price. The downswing in iron-ore prices contributed to shares in Rio Tinto, the world's second-largest iron-ore miner by output, falling 1.0% Tuesday, while rival Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. also dropped 4.6%. The companies underperformed the broader Australian share-market, which rose 0.7%. Standard Bank Analyst Melinda Moore said there are increasing worries among financial market players about the options open to China's leaders in terms of cutting pollution from heavy industry and limiting credit growth, both of which would hit the country's steel sector hard. Prices for Chinese steel reinforcing bar, or rebar, have also been falling on weak demand from end-users, like manufacturers and construction companies, and that too is forcing some mills to slow production right down, according to an iron-ore manager at one of China's largest steelmakers. "At current prices, they can't make any money, but shutting a furnace would be too costly for them so they find a way to keep it running while producing less steel," said the manager, who couldn't be named as he isn't authorized to speak to the media. Also weighing on sentiment: the potential for a sudden glut of material on the market as miners like Rio Tinto increase production to record levels in Australia. UBS estimates the seaborne market surplus will rise from just 2 million tons in 2012 to 262 million tons by 2016.

an interesting article, but i also wouldn't put it past the chinese to manipulate the market

I have a limit sell on Ftse @ 6797 in case markets go tits up, not holding my breath just yet though :0)

if shortie actually shorted dow yesterday, i fear he has called it wrong - and will probably have closed that down anyway .... markets look disinclined to pull back

Agree cynic, would appear buy high sell higher hasn't disintegrated just yet.

I didn't place a short yesterday although as its trading above 16500 today I may end up making a play. I'll post it here if I do..

Taken from WorldFirst

Rampant retail sales salvage sterling’s week

Off the back of the softer-than-expected UK inflation data last Tuesday, sterling looked set for a week in which it would concede ground to both the dollar and euro. However, there was still plenty of mileage in UK data, evident in the astonishing retail sales figure that fuelled the pound higher by the end of Friday. The Eurozone also posted a drop in the rate of inflation on Thursday, which weighed on the euro following the ECB monthly report that same morning. After a strong start to the week, the dollar exhausted the momentum it gained from the US’s own encouraging retail sales figure on Tuesday, as jobless claims numbers were mixed and CPI came in as expected on Thursday afternoon. This morning’s mixed Chinese GDP data will have set the tone for risk this week, but the market’s memory is short and the UK’s retail sales spurt in December will likely be long forgotten by the time we hit the Bank of England’s minutes, which are published on Wednesday of this week.

The UK retail sector reported year-on-year sales growth of 5.3% (6.1% excluding fuel) on Friday morning and this contrasted with expectations of 2.6%, which some felt was overly optimistic given the UK’s underwhelming annualised CPI figure of 2.0% on Tuesday. This ran counter to anecdotal evidence, as retailers have been stumbling over themselves to issue profit warnings and revise expected earnings at the start of this year following what was perceived to have been a lacklustre holiday season. Although an increase in consumer spending should be broadly welcomed - even if at the expense of retailers’ margins - such an increase conforms to the narrative that has been trundling along for months now; credit has been fuelling UK consumer spending in the absence of meaningful nominal wage growth. However, a hefty revision or poor January figures – as consumers sober up and deleverage again – would not surprise us a month down the line.

US retail sales growth could not boast the same magnitude as the UK’s figures, but inflation stateside appeared more robust than the price growth picture here, given that it rebounded to August’s rate of change of 1.5% on Thursday. In the early hours of Thursday morning, Australian employment change showed a fall of 22,600, confounding expectations of an increase of 7,500 and torpedoing AUD versus GBP and USD.

This week starts slowly due to the public holiday in the US today, but things should get more interesting by Wednesday, when we have the usual raft of UK unemployment data accompanied by the Bank of England minutes. The German Constitutional Court ruling on the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions is now expected sometime tomorrow, along with ZEW sentiment in the morning and Spanish short-term bond auctions. Chinese manufacturing PMI and European services PMIs mark the start of Thursday, followed by US Jobless Claims that afternoon. The World Economic Forum in Davos kicks off on Wednesday and lasts the rest of the week, so we’re also guaranteed a few humdingers from the odd central banker here and there, which could cause market movements independent of the data schedule.

Wall St, from 15th Nov the old bullish range broke, tested higher and then dropped back into the old range before 18th December when it goes again and really breaks out a high of something like 16599. If the new trend holds and I have my doubts as the gradient looks too steep for a start we'll see this high broken. However the top of the old existing trend currently around 16000 is where support lies (I don't think 16400 has been fully tested) and thats a massive potential shift south in the ever expanding support resistance lines.

When you consider that Wall St opened 2013 trading at around 13500 and ended 3000 pts higher at 16500 thats a rise of some 22%, no wonder some believe the market is clearly in a bubble.

Don't forget to watch out for the IMF at 2:30pm, guys.

why does the IMF have any credibility left?

Don't know. Don't care. But it's an event risk which is likely to dominate today's US session and it's been omitted from the £am calendar.

Even auntie has it :- IMF expected to raise UK growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to raise its growth forecast for the UK economy later on Tuesday.

Reports suggest it now expects the economy to grow 2.4% this year - faster than any other major European economy - against its previous forecast of 1.9%.

This would bring its forecast in line with that of the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility.

The IMF is also expected to raise its global growth outlook slightly to 3.7%.

The group's managing director, Christine Lagarde, said earlier this month that the IMF would be upgrading its growth forecasts.

You placed another short on the FTSE yet Skinny? I seam to remember you were holding out for the 6860's...