AIM's most promising turnaround plays
Bagir Group Ltd (BAGR)
10p
Few companies have managed to disappoint as quickly as Bagir (BAGR) so it is no surprise that investors' have a lack of trust in the company. On the 15 April 2014, the designer and supplier of formalwear joined AIM and raised £20 million (£17.6 million after expenses) at 56p a share. Bagir is currently valued at £5.02 million at 10p a share.
That share price slump is because, exactly one month after flotation, management warned that there had been an unexpected reduction in orders with Marks & Spencer (MKS) considering changing its purchasing policy. Marks & Spencer and Arcadia are Bagir's two largest clients. This meant that 2014 revenues are unlikely to be much higher than the 2013 figure of $99.5 million and underlying EBITDA's expected to be between $4 million and $5 million, compared with $6.1 million in 2013, but there will be a pre-tax loss. There have been cost savings and further operating efficiencies are planned in order to return Bagir to profit this year.
There was cash of $16.6 million at the end of June 2014, but also $25 million of total debt. Since then, $1.5 million has been spent on a 50% stake in an Ethiopian production facility. The factory will be upgraded so that higher quality clothing can be produced and that will be completed in the first half of this year.
Last July, Artemis increased its stake to 13.3%. Admittedly, Hargreave Hale has trimmed its stake recently but it still owns nearly 17%. The shares are trading on less than twice 2014 EBITDA. There is a business here it is a question of showing that trading has been stabilised. Most importantly, the management has to get back the trust of investors. That could take a long time so the low rating will not change overnight.