CC
- 30 Aug 2015 11:57
I thought it might be good to share something about my objectives and my investing style. I hope you find it of interest and generates some discussion as I think Moneyam needs something more at the moment.
I work full time so I’m an investor now. In general I do have time to check the markets during the day but there are days when I’m in meetings for hours on end and it’s not appropriate. This works well for me as stops me over-trading. I suspect I would make less if I sat at a computer all day trying to invest.
Please feel free to discuss you trading style and reflect on how I could improve what I do.
I have two pots. The first pot is my SIPP and I therefore consider I must invest this with extreme caution. I consider a return of 5-10% as acceptable and any more as a bonus. The second pot is my trading pot where I take more risk. I am looking for 10+% plus a year from this. I only invest in UK equities. I no longer trade CFD’s or spreadbets due to the nature of my job, although many years ago I made a living day-trading.
My performance over the last 6 years is as follows:
2010 -0.3%
2011 -34.8% (too little diversification, bad timing and not very pleasant)
2012 +70.7% (umm – too little diversification –just got the timing wrong on the previous years purchases)
2013 +36.8% (umm – still too little diversification but what do you do when you’re in the right trades??)
2014 +5.5% (diversification getting better but my biggest share-holding hurt me badly)
2015 +5.5% so far
I have a very simple trading style. My primary objective is to sell equities when Ftse is high and buy when it is low i.e. I choose my entry and exit point depending on whether Ftse is overbought or oversold. The choice of share is secondary.
I often buy stocks in a clear downtrend on chart support points when Ftse is beaten up on the premise that Ftse will turn up in a short time frame setting up a bounce for the stock. These stocks will generally also have attracted me because of fundamentals, dividends or I believe they are significantly oversold. I also like recovery stories with long circulating bid rumours. Sometimes I buy stocks after research leads me to believe the share is significantly undervalued – this can be very profitable but usually a great amount of patience is required.
So, to explain in more detail this year as Ftse moved up early in the year I started selling heavily as Ftse reached 6700. By the time it reached its peak I was 91% in cash. As it headed back down again in June I started buying again at 6700 and by the end of June as Ftse was around 6500 I was 95% invested. Clearly I haven’t called this that well this year based on the evidence but I’m comfortable about it as doing something was better than doing nothing. Ftse is down 3.8% year to date and I’m up 5.5%. I suspect most people would be pretty happy with that – I am.
Here is my portfolio. It’s quite unbalanced and deliberately so. It breaks a load of rules with regard to diversification
24.3% - Sorry but I can’t share this stock with you yet as it’s not that liquid and I’m still acquiring stock. I’ve done my research and honesty believe a doubling of share price in three years would be a really poor outcome.
14.8% RBS. Most of these I have acquired between 337 and 362 although I have a few from 307. Already sold a few from 307 last week and if I can get somewhere between 339 and 342 next week they will be gone too. Earlier in the year they were trading at 400 and there were no sellers in sight as it trudged up day after day from 380 to 400. I’m of the view that this will come back over time as the government require the banks to be strong and make profits so we don’t have another crisis. I intend to hold all of these for a while (except for the few I’m selling next week) and start off-loading around 385 and see what happens from there
8.3% RDSB. Like many PI’s I’ve got drawn in by the dividend and most of these were bought between 1845 and 2025. I have a few at 1598 from last week which I honestly thought would be far higher given the rise in oil this week. I think oil has a bit higher to run yet and I’m looking to sell the ones from 1598 soon as I’ve got a few too many. Not sure what to do about the rest but the dividend of around 6% helps.
6.3% VSVS. Provides products to the steel industry. I’m in this as I think there is/will be global move away from concrete to steel due to construction costs and environmental issues. I bought these a few months ago and I’m a few percent down at the moment which is pleasing given general state of Ftse. The share register is interesting and the price activity over the last few weeks intrigues me and I have a “feeling in my waters” we may see some rumours around this stock over the next few months.
6.1% HSP – Hargreaves Services. In some ways I wish I’d never heard of this stock and I’m 14% down on them at the moment although it was far worse. This is a case of me doing research, working out its undervalued and buying on the expectation others would realise this too. The market can remain irrational for some considerable time when it has a mind to! It got really bashed around recently on a trading update and then bounced significantly on its interims. Since it delivered what it would said it would in the trading update nothing ceases to surprise me any longer.
Surprisingly it fell last week as oil rose. Offering a 9% dividend with two-thirds of this already declared for next month. I’m hoping to scale back on this in the near future and if not I’m fairly relaxed due to the dividend
5.8% PFL. Premier Farnell. Famous for the Raspberry Pi although that’s not why I bought it. I bought about two-thirds between 170 and 180 because of the chart and I thought the euro would strengthen (which has proved to be correct but hasn’t helped). The other third I bought last week at 119 and if I can get somewhere between 133 and 138 next week I’m selling. They may go for less. I don’t really want this many and I’ve got my eye on a few other things (HMSO around 620 looks a much better place to be). 8% dividend if it can afford to maintain it which the city boys seem to doubt. I’m of the view it has sufficient cash to pay this for the moment but I guess won’t be surprised if it’s cut. We’ll know soon enough
5.8% SFR. Severfield. Steel again. I like the man in charge. I bought at 69p and it held up well until the last couple of days of the recent FTSE fall. It hit a brickwall at 70 and a huge amount of shares have changed hands there. It had just crept over when the ftse carnage started. It’s fallen to the current price on very little volume so hopefully it will bounce back on similar. Happy to hold as comfortable enough with where this is going long term
4.8% Weir. Industrial with large exposure to US shale industry. Has been bashed down and I bought in at 1725-1825. Got some more last week at 1264 so those are getting sold any day now as I’ve got enough of these and I don’t believe in averaging. Every trade should stand on its own. The dividend is just over 3%. There were takeover rumours earlier in the year when the price was around 1700 so I’m hoping they will get resurrected. I’m happy to hold the rest for a while and see what happens
4.4% SPHR. Sphere Medical. This is speculative part of my portfolio. The share that will make me rich or I’ll lose all my money on it. 10 bagger or bust! It makes blood gas analysers for an intensive care setting without drawing any blood from the patients and provides instant results. Pretty good as I understand in ICU up to 19 blood tests can be required a day from patients. I imagine its pretty good for paediatrics too where babies don’t have loads of blood to start with. The product is launched and is at an early stage in the sales curve. This was Neil Woodford’s first investment from WPCT and he continues to add to his holding. Shares are very tightly held. An upgrade to the analyser is on its way which is hoped will significantly change the sales profile. I can talk endlessly about this company if anyone is interested which is a really bad sign as I’m too attached to it.
3.5% INTU. Property. I have a small profit on this despite buying months ago and Ftse being bashed around. I guess I’m looking for a 10% rise and to collect the dividends as I go. Very safe.
3.3% TATE. I’ve got a small profit on this too. Trade hasn’t gone as well as planned and I’d like to start reducing if it goes up as little as 3%
3.1% Another nameless stock I’m afraid. Quite illiquid and I haven’t decided if I’ve finished accumulating or not. I’ll only be taking a little more if I do.
2.9% LLOY. Who wouldn’t have Lloyds in their portfolio? Some dividends and good potential for growth. Share price a bit disappointing of late but I bought this at 39p so it owes me nothing.
1.9% STAN. Bought most of these at 737 last week although the rest are dire and out of the money from 890. I’m not feeling comfortable with them. Not sure what to do which means I’ll probably let them go and then watch the stock fly
1.4% BG. Held these from 820 from before the bid and just watched. Part of the reason I need to reduce my RDSB
1.2% CSG. Cyril Sweet Group. Bought at 22p so basically flat although I had the chance to sell higher. Quite speculative.
0.6% BP The only thing I can say about this is that having bought at 484 I didn’t buy any more on the way down. The dividend eases the pain ;-) Actually I did once buy some more on the way down but I had the sense to get out for a tiny profit on them.
0.6% AV. Bought at 498p a few months ago and this is all that’s left after selling four fifths higher up, so this has been good to me
0.5% FENR. 12% down on this although it’s bounced. Not much to say – not my best trade. The dividend is good.
0.5% HSBC. Out of the money on this. Could have done better.
0.1% Cash – I’m fully invested with Ftse at 6200 as I write today. Whilst I may rotate my stocks around a bit as there are some bargains out there right now I’ll in general be staying fully invested until Ftse hits 6500. I’ll reappraise then. I may change my mind depending on the mood of the market
rekirkham
- 02 Sep 2015 22:10
- 14 of 103
You seem to have an over diversified portfolio.
I do trading full time ( for 8 years ) but recently just go long and short with FRES
( Fresnillo ), one share only. I use CFD's only
Almost every trade ( in and out ) I make a profit - last 17 trades over about 8 weeks,
I have about - 15 gains 2 losses
The 2 losses were heavy because of China, but overall am doing OK.
I keep an eye on gold and silver commodity prices and news etc
I agree that once I am holding a position it can be tedious watching a screen all day,
but if I make good money that week I feel good.
cynic
- 03 Sep 2015 08:29
- 15 of 103
to digress but slightly ......
one of the major reasons mam has lost its way is, to a large extent, due to the banning of a couple of major contributors to the site several months ago
that they were both very stupid and to a large extent brought about their own banishment is almost without question
however, the site is unquestionably much poorer without them, and if the management would be rather less stiff-necked, it would be beneficial to all to welcome them both back
mentor
- 03 Sep 2015 09:12
- 16 of 103
CC
A good try with the Portfolio strategy, it seems profitable for you, but it will not get you rich lets say, reason......... too cautious on avoiding risks rewards and playing it too safe for my liking.
I do lots of trading for decades now and always have been on the risk side with plenty of upside
Lately on BOX ( uptrend ) CEB ( still uptrend ), CPX ( having a rest ) and TERN ( new Breakout today ) to say the best lately.
But good luck with you way of investing
mentor
- 03 Sep 2015 09:20
- 17 of 103
re - get the devil back
How much would you get paid for that? ........cynic ........ 30 silver coins.
you have try it too many times on this subject
talk (post ) about the subject ........ My portfolio with commentary
cp1
- 03 Sep 2015 12:37
- 18 of 103
But much of what you trade Mentor is pretty illiquid so unless it is pennies you are after then surely much is stacked against you? Huge spreads, tiny market size and SEAQ where MMs control things to please their own agenda (pockets). Get one right and things are good, one wrong and you're hung out by the cowboys (MMs).
mentor
- 03 Sep 2015 13:45
- 19 of 103
cp1
there is always excuses when someone is shall I say "full of jealousy"!
re - unless it is pennies
what is pennies for you £647 gain at a time or is £867 or £573 or £865 or £442 ( today ) all this gains are on BOX since 5 June 2015
Being on an UPTREND situation, there is retracement all the time, get the timing right and you are on the money.
btw all the BOX trades were from T+10 to T+20 and close them before time, like today closed at T+12, so I made large profit without paying for the stock..
I am sure I have more experience that you, or any other around here to say a bit more than I want to.
I use profits, TA and momentum on the timing of buying in and use all type of stocks, some larger than others, so if they are less liquid, I buy less £ amount, but not very often buy large companies, cuz the return are too small most of the time for my way of return expectations.
I try not to overdo the buying, apart from a Portfolio of growing stocks, I have a few open positions at a time mostly T+20, today sold BOX and bought again CPX @ 5.675p now they are paying 5.79p and rising, only 1MM left @ 5.80p
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cynic
- 03 Sep 2015 14:15
- 20 of 103
cp1 - don't argue! .... mentor (and his other aliases) reckons he's God and brooks no contrariness
cp1
- 03 Sep 2015 14:42
- 21 of 103
Mentor I doubt you are that good as you wouldn't be bothering posting on a BB about bargain bucket stocks.
I've done fine over the years but not really into the self appraising and chest beating and certainly no need to buy anything unless it stands out a mile - and nowt does as the world (imo) is entering the next serious chapter of financial Armageddon. Suppose it's like the bloke in the bookies telling you about his 10/1 winner last week whilst he's quietly filled yet another waste paper basket up with screwed up slips. I'm sure life's great for you mind.
mentor
- 03 Sep 2015 15:06
- 22 of 103
cp1
the only think you can doubt is of "cynic" posting, what I post is what is happening no more no less.
The "proof is on the pudding" look at the past post, where I was saying when buying and when selling, I stop a bit now cuz, you should know by now, ...............
(cynic) tries to follow me around and copy my buys and then argue with himself, he reckons is what
You went to fast in answering without doing the research of my past record on how well I am doing.
so you only get the answer for your " pennies problem", maybe that is the amount of money you invest. Now get sorted, and if you want me to believe your " I've done fine over the years" ......... start posting your buys otherwise, another waster on the list ..... big mouth but no t
kernow
- 03 Sep 2015 17:32
- 23 of 103
why can't he stick to talking to himself on the monitise thread.
cynic
- 03 Sep 2015 17:35
- 24 of 103
i have more painful ideas for him :-)
Fred1new
- 03 Sep 2015 17:36
- 25 of 103
Manuel,
Post 23,
Stop admiring yourself in the mirror!
Chris Carson
- 03 Sep 2015 17:44
- 26 of 103
No wonder this site has gone to the dogs LOL!!!
Thank you CC for posting your thoughts.
groovyjean
- 04 Sep 2015 08:55
- 27 of 103
I think the simple answer is that we're all getting older! Also, there are so many abusive posts which are very tedious. I had missed the AJ Bell purchase so will watch with interest. These days I invest mostly in income stocks, the exceptions being EZJ and FDM which i dip in and out of. I presume most serious investors will belong to a local, convivial, group so less need for MAM
skinny
- 04 Sep 2015 09:03
- 28 of 103
"I think the simple answer is that we're all getting older!"
I resemble that remark!
VICTIM
- 04 Sep 2015 09:05
- 29 of 103
I heard that , pardon .
Chris Carson
- 04 Sep 2015 09:11
- 30 of 103
I'll have halve!
VICTIM
- 04 Sep 2015 09:19
- 31 of 103
I've had a laugh too .
cp1
- 04 Sep 2015 09:51
- 32 of 103
So apart from Mentor (who appears to only ever have winners) most of us are getting older and wiser to the shenanigans of Mr market and have found other alternative investments. Just make sure you don't run out of life to spend all your winnings Mentor...