Bloomburg analyst says BP good value at 410p (he can't see 'em going much lower) and, according to him, Shell are 10% cheaper (372p)and even better value. Recommends buying Shell.
He also added - Oils lost ground because they're defensive and money is going into techs. Now the time to pick up a bargain. Yield of 4.1%. 370p ought to offer support chartwise?

well it was a nice 'short' term share today :)

Watts out and so Shell going well!
Looks like the city has picked it's dummy up off the floor now they've got what they were sulking for.

Holders of Shell will want to read the extensive coverage in todays Telegraph Business section , under heading "damning series of emails lay bare top level rift as exploration head complains of having to "fool" the City and hide the truth on reserves" , and ..."Memos expose years of lying". atm price little changed abt 389p. P.

Hysterical and mostly badly researched media reporting IMO. 85% of the 'lost' reserves will be reclassified as proven in the next ten years. How often do you see that in the media? Almost never.

350p is a rock solid base and, in years to come, 380p will be seen as a steal.

SHELL Final Results comments from Killick & Co

Full year results show the benefits of the strengthening oil price. Net income rose by 48% to $18.5 billion from which the group reported earnings (on a current cost of supplies basis) of $17.6 billion. Production was running at around 3.8 million boe (barrels of oil equivalent) per day, at the high end of the indicative range set at the time of Shells overall strategy review. Of most interest at the moment is the creation of one company, Royal Dutch Shell plc will which be driven from London. This means that the entire market capitalization will be listed in London rather than split in the Netherlands and for tracking funds, the end result will be 20% of the index now represented by oil stocks. Traders believe that trackers still have a huge number of Shell shares to buy to get up to weight.

For all oil stocks, the other main issue is capital expenditure. The higher oil price has led to commercializing other opportunities. However, it is notable that only Exxon and BP are deemed of the majors to be replacing reserves at a higher rate than it is being consumed. Shell is targeting a return to 100% cover but is not there yet. Shell has been pressured during 2004 for having to restate it proven and probable reserves. Unfortunately, it still does not appear to have got to the bottom of this problem with the revelation today that they are re-stating lower by 1.4 billion boe, higher than the 900 million previously anticipated.

The company is now committing to a large share buy back program worth $3 to 5 billion over the next year.

The overall view of these results is positive despite the restatement and with the return of cash and anticipated share buying campaign by the company and trackers should lead to short term relative strength. We remain buyers.

LONDON (AFX) - The Royal Dutch/Shell Group said acquisitions are not crucial
to its ambitions to achieve 100 pct reserve replacement ratio in the five years
to 2008.
The target ratio already factored in certain portfolio actions, including
disposals and product pricing effects.
It will be back-end loaded as most proved reserves will be added in the
latter part of the period as new projects are developed and brought on stream,
Malcolm Brinded, head of Shell's exploration and production business, told
reporters in a news conference.
Brinded said he is "reasonably confident" that Shell will attain its target
even without a sizeable acquisition.
In 2004, the reserve replacement ratio had fallen to 45-55 pct following the
reserves cut. Including asset sale and pricing impact, the ratio declined
further to 15-25 pct.
"In 2005, it will still be less than 100 pct," Brinded said.
Shell has persistently been involved in takeover rumours, the latest one
involved French rival Total and US gas producer Williams.
Brinded said about 10 pct of its reserves have yet to be reviewed by
independent auditors. However, he assured that the risk of further restatement
is low.
Half of that 10 pct, equivalent to over 1 bln barrels of the end-2003 figure
of 14.35 bln, are located in Shell's oil and gas fields in the US.
The reserves have been audited by Shell's internal experts during six weeks
of "rigorous" checking late last year.
Initial indications showed that there will be "very little risk of
non-compliance" with the US Securities and Exchange Commission guidelines,
Brinded added.
Shell will submit the reserves report to the SEC on Feb 20.
The latest downgrade of 1.4 bln barrels came mostly from Shell's fields in
Europe, Africa and the Far East, said Brinded, declining to specify which
projects contributed the biggest cut.

Interesting article in the FT....

Over the past few months, Saudi Arabia has on several occasions sought to ease high oil prices, saying it intends to lift its production capacity by another 2m barrels a day to 12.5m b/d within the next five years, and possibly as high as 15m b/d if strong demand persists.

But its pledge was greeted sceptically by oil traders and prices were only briefly affected.

The investment in drilling rigs is the first concrete evidence that the kingdom has identified a shift in the oil markets towards sustained higher prices.

One oil executive, who works in the region, said: [Saudi Aramco] has changed its attitude a lot in the past six months; it is more confident that oil demand and oil prices are going to remain high.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/276e0d76-7c67-11d9-8992-00000e2511c8.html

Also lady on Bloomberg believes oil will increase in value in real terms (i.e. not just US dollar price)

I'd considered taking profits on my shell and total shares but i think i'll now keep'm.

"Oil giant BP lost 5p to 552.5p after CSFB downgraded its recommendation on the stock to neutral from outperform.

CSFB explained the downgrade was partly due to the fact that the stock trading is within 1% of its 570p target and also due to the likelihood of technical factors surrounding the Royal Dutch/Shell restructuring weighing on the shares."

The big boys are short of SHEL stock apparently. It'll be worth watching for overperformance against BP. and Total.SA - I might switch to Total if Shell continues to outperform.
Any other oil favorites out here?

Bb, I still have shell to go over 500 pretty soon.

Hi folks, forgive my ignorance as not being a trader as such. Just a quick question to any one prepared to answer.

When trading for serious short term gains, how does the spread come into play. For example I hear of a tight-spread, or a large-spread etc, but is it an inication of a good time to purchase? Essentially what does it indicate?

Thank you

LP, spread is more of an indications of how liquid a share is, for ftse stocks its almost always fairly small about shell is normally about .25 p, for some illiquid shares it can be a large percentage. In my opinion it does not say much about wheteher a share is worth buying although there are patterns with some shares where the spread tightens at certain times, I do not use them as indicators (but then I dont use many indicators).

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,2718-1511236,00.html

March 05, 2005

Can Shell's Canadian sands yield more oil than the Saudi deserts?
By Carl Mortished
Transforming black sand into oil is costly and dirty, but there is plenty of itabout.

Altogether, we have 10 billion barrels of oil in place, with 6 billion recoverable, Camarta says. That would give us 30 years production at 500,000 barrels per day. To get there, Shell needs to invest a further C$12 billion in three phases over the next decade.....

....Shell has cut back the cost of producing a barrel of synthetic crude to C$18 and its upgrader plant in Edmonton transforms carbon-heavy bitumen into a light, sulphur-free crude that sells at a $2 premium to the US crude benchmark price.....