Hi all,

I'm new to this and invest mainly on the fundamentals of a company. I am slowly learning some of the charting side (still a bit sceptical) and would appreciate any views on Skyepharma, a share I have a fairly large holding in, from a chartist perspective

as sell price is upped (even though no buyers) more sellers emerge and when they dry up at a given price it is upped again!!! patten over last 2 days indicating that someone wants your shares badly at this price.... That means they are almost certainly cheap at moment...think before you SELL!

Thats me out at 58p as i had two extended settlement positions and unless a larger company or bid war comes along a fair target would be about 60p..Had it been a cash position Imight have held a bit longer.....Best of luck to those still holding

any idea if the move relates to the recent takeover approach?

Peeyam

yes it relates to press rumour regarding the possible takeover

The Times

November 23, 2005

SkyePharma surges on rumours of bidder sounding out support
By Nick Hasell
Small caps



SKYEPHARMA found its best level since admitting to a bid approach last week amid rumours that a private equity bidder has sounded out institutional support for a possible takeover.
After a rise in its shares, the mid-cap drug delivery specialist said last week that it was conducting a strategic review after an unsolicited bid approach. Although the unnamed suitor has been touted in some circles as a rival UK drugs group, yesterdays murmur was that the predator is a financial buyer that this week has been soliciting support from institutions, which recently backed the companys 35 million rights issue at 30p. SkyePharma put on 2p at 53 p, with the FTSE 250 up 16.6 points at 8,245.8.

Takeover speculation boosted several mid-cap stocks, with drug firm SkyePharma (skp.l: Quote, Profile, Research) in the lead with a near-8 percent gain to 58 pence after the Telegraph newspaper said Swiss drug group Novartis (NOVN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) was behind the recent takeover approach and may pay 70p a share.

23/11/2005 08:18 DJ MARKET TALK: Market Skeptical On SkyePharma,Novartis Talk

0818 GMT [Dow Jones] SkyePharma (SKP.L) +7.5% at 57.5p on speculation Novartis
(NOVN.VX) may consider a bid, according to traders. "I would be quite surprised," says one analyst. "Firstly, there is very little overlap from a development perspective, and secondly, it doesn't make much sense from a drug delivery perspective as there would be conflicts of interest." Novartis declines to comment.

MMs picked up a lot of shares in low 50's for someone at agreed price or themselves in which case they can now sell them at 58p so they have made money whatever the outcome... If bid doesnt come then worth nearer 50p for now... otherwise 60p or so poss on cards and pure speculation of major bids puts it nearer 70p. Take your choice but news must be coming in next week or so I guess.

Well Done Ian! The flag pattern proved correct. I guess that the chart showed yesterday that something was about to happen. That's interesting that the charts can tell you about potential news. I see Vislink's starting to move!

Whats that burning !!

Its only SKP on fire,,,,feel the heat.

The Times November 24, 2005

Innovata approach spurs SkyePharma auction
By Richard Irving



INNOVATA, the company that was formed this year out of the merger of ML Laboratories and Quadrant, has emerged as the mystery suitor for SkyePharma, the struggling drugs developer, The Times has learnt.
It is understood that Innovata, led by Kieran Murphy, approached SkyePharma last month about a possible tie-up. Talks did not progress to a point where either the price or the structure of a deal were discussed in detail.



Innovata, which has made little secret of its ambitions to grow through acquisition, declined to comment last night.

SkyePharma effectively hoisted a For Sale sign over the business last Monday after confirming that it had received an unsolicited takeover approach. Since then shares in the drug maker have jumped to 56p amid hopes that an auction of the business will attract keen interest from trade buyers as well as private equity groups.

Innovata is unlikely to be interested in the company at the new price, although it is believed to be following developments closely.

Analysts have speculated that Novartis and Roche, the Swiss giants, might be interested, as well as Endo Pharmaceuticals, an American company that licenses SkyePharmas technology, and Alkermes, another US biotech group.

Private equity buyers might include Warburg Pincus, or the consortium that took Warner Chilcott, the womens healthcare company formerly known as Galen, private last year.

Innovata approached SkyePharmas management after the company launched a deeply unpopular and heavily discounted rights issue in October, sending the shares to a ten-year low. The company was forced into the fundraising after failing to find a partner to finance late-stage clinical trials of its most promising drug, a dual-action treatment for asthma called Flutiform.

Flutiform, which is a cocktail of two older drugs that have already lost patent protection, could ultimately go on to achieve sales of more than $1 billion (580 million) a year.

SkyePharma generates more than 20 million a year from an array of licensing deals with other drug makers, including GlaxoSmithKline, for which it provides the slow-release technology for Paxil CR, the top-selling antidepressant.

Analysts believe that this web of royalty deals, which are ultimately shared with a finance house called Paul Capital, will make a straight trade sale difficult, although not impossible. SkyePharmas capital structure is also complicated by debt that is convertible into equity.

Innovata, which specialises in making inhalers, was formerly known as ML Laboratories. The business underwent a restructuring this year after shareholders ousted the former executive chairman over poor performance. Mr Murphy was brought in to focus on growth in the companys drug delivery technology. In June he bought Quadrant, a former spin-off of Elan, for $47 million and renamed the business as Innovata.

Shares in Innovata closed p higher at 25p while those in SkyePharma edged 2p higher to 56p.

RNS re Innovata looking at merger not a takeover - shares off 17% on the news

Innovata Plc
24 November 2005


24 November 2005

Innovata plc

Response to press speculation


The board of Innovata plc notes the recent press speculation and confirms that
it is currently in early stage discussions with SkyePharma plc regarding a
possible combination of the two companies.

It is emphasised that these discussions are preliminary in nature and there can
be no certainty that a transaction will be concluded. A further announcement
will be made as appropriate.

Big buys and sells i dont think anybody has clue what to do following yesterdays statement.

Strangely enough the price has settled at the value it should be if you take the pre rights issue price and allow for dilution......48p! All bets not necessarily off as Inovatta might still buy at 60p and one of the rumour mill pharmas might emerge like a white knight. No news and price will hold for a while before dropping and good news will boost price. Remember a lot of short term positions were opened on way up and might still need closing..

you can`t see the writing properly. It says `possible test of 38`

That is the lower red uptrend line. The lower blue line gives a resistance of 59.5

Quite surprised at renewed interest in this share as my take on it is as follows:-

1. No takeover/merger price drops below 48p
2. Merger 48p with some plus side
3. Takeover Innovata or similar 60p
4. Takeover big pharma (only speculation) 70p

Above 50p the risk/reward gets higher as most likely outcomes are 1&2 with 3 still likely and 60p is getting nearer so less reward. If you wanted to take over a co you would try to dampen down the share price first so news will be non commital at best for a while. So only hope for share price short term is takeover battle but remember the catalyst for all this activity was a 10 year low share price and as price rises this attraction wanes.The other thing to bear in mind is that mergers/takeovers can take months behind closed doors so the share price is likely to suffer if lack of news over an extended period.
Sorry to be a killjoy and I could be wrong!!!! Be careful out there.....

Ianwas

3 is a complete non runner in my opinion, if it was to be a tie up between SKP and innovata it would have to be structured as SKP taking out Innovata or a merger (but with Innovata mgmt being installed). Reasoning for this is the change of ownership clause SKP has in some of the contracts with the pharma partners it already has