cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
spitfire43
- 19 Nov 2007 17:20
- 140 of 21973
Darradev - Bad luck, same for me today I went long at 6196 and hit my stop 15 minutes later at 6171. Still learning at the moment, and lesson has been learnt, don't try and be too clever, catching falling knives, bucking the market etc all come to mind.
Only taking small positions until I start winning more than losing.
Darradev
- 19 Nov 2007 17:45
- 141 of 21973
Evening spit..., thanks for the words of understanding. It's more frustrating than anything else. Having been 'watching' and getting it right for the previous few days last week and then to 'blow it' in a few hours...
Anyway, another day, another opportunity. :-)
On another topic, I see Mr Parvizi and the Directors have increased their stake in GOO, so maybe some cheer there in the comng days/weeks. I remember around this time last year (Dec) it went ballistic.
HARRYCAT
- 19 Nov 2007 21:22
- 142 of 21973
Just purely from a charting perspective, DOW is now sub 13000 & also below the 200 DMA. I'm not sure how relevant the 200 DMA is for a major index, but historically there don't seem to be many sustained breakouts. The only thing that possibly stands out on the 10 year chart is that bear & bull cycles tend to be about 5 year periods, which would suggest we are at the peak & now heading down. FTSE chart is slightly different, but still cyclical. Imo, the 10 year chart still shows we are at the top. Opinions welcome, but the gravy train may be over for a while.
cynic
- 19 Nov 2007 21:32
- 143 of 21973
i'm a damn fool and am currently long Dow ..... i do not at all like that index is below 13,000 and 200 dma, but believe real key number is 12850 or thereabouts
HARRYCAT
- 19 Nov 2007 21:44
- 144 of 21973
As you have said many times, no stock goes up or down in a straight line & I would expect DOW to test 13000 support a couple of times, but................2008 looks like it may be heading downwards on the chart.
Strawbs
- 19 Nov 2007 22:08
- 145 of 21973
The DOW is still making higher highs and higher lows, so technically still in an uptrend. A close below 12845 ish would create a "lower low" and indicate a possible trend change. If it should slide then I'd look for a bounce around 12520 ish. Think it's "thanks giving" in the US this week, so lower than average volumes may also make things a little volatile.
In my opinion.
Strawbs.
maddoctor
- 19 Nov 2007 22:30
- 146 of 21973
the nasdaq still has not broken the 200ma and is likely to go up tomorrow on the back of HP , expecting a bounce on all indices
HARRYCAT
- 20 Nov 2007 08:55
- 147 of 21973
Still on the chart theme, looking at the 10 year chart for the FTSE 100, 350, Small cap & Fledgling, they all seem to follow roughly the same pattern (naturally enough), but the AIM chart looks to follow it's own pattern, totally unrelated to the main market. For those that trade stocks conventionally, maybe that is the sector to look at in a bear market?
Nice bounce today, doc. Spot on with your diagnosis.
BigTed
- 20 Nov 2007 09:16
- 148 of 21973
going to test 6000 soon...?!
HARRYCAT
- 20 Nov 2007 09:33
- 149 of 21973
DOW futures currently +50, so slight FTSE recovery looking likely, imo.
HARRYCAT
- 20 Nov 2007 21:10
- 150 of 21973
Just scraped above the 13000 mark. Tenuous reprieve.
Hoping for a reasonable day on the FTSE tomorrow.
cynic
- 20 Nov 2007 21:33
- 151 of 21973
but remember Dow was below 12900 at one point, so a good bounce ....phew!
explosive
- 20 Nov 2007 22:30
- 152 of 21973
I'm seeing the bears right now so a short for me.
BigTed
- 21 Nov 2007 08:44
- 153 of 21973
Surprised by the market being lower this morning, for me, shows the change in mood now, to bearish, any reason at all and the market drops by 100 points, loads of bullish statements around this morning and doing nothing to help the market...
cynic
- 21 Nov 2007 10:17
- 154 of 21973
this is all starting to look very very scary indeed ...... Dow indications now -110 ..... for myself, i have sold quite a lot of mis-behaving stocks this morning, albeit that it means crystalising some quite nasty losses and/or brought back into line other stocks where i was significantly o'weight
have also shorted SOLA again!
maddoctor
- 21 Nov 2007 10:22
- 155 of 21973
last nights rise looked like bear closing as dow hit the magic number of 850
cynic
- 21 Nov 2007 10:24
- 156 of 21973
i very much fear that 12850 will be significantly breached this afternoon, which could be the start of whole new and very unfriendly ball game
quirkily, this could easily mean NRK surging as short positions are closed off to take profits and/or cover margins elsewhere
maddoctor
- 21 Nov 2007 10:31
- 157 of 21973
the so-called government are in such a mess i can see them taking the j.c.flowers offer to get back as much money as quickly as they can
and it sure does not look like the US are going into the holidays with the usual fuzzy feeling
HARRYCAT
- 21 Nov 2007 13:20
- 158 of 21973
Not sure it's best to cash in losses just yet. Slight losses could easily go in to profit on a bounce, which is probable after the U.S. holiday, imo.
I assume you are shorting the DOW today, cynic? But long on the FTSE while the U.S. eat their turkeys? I suppose there will even be a shortage of them this year in the U.K.
cynic
- 21 Nov 2007 14:10
- 159 of 21973
no, not short Dow as indications last night were for firm F/E etc and by this morning, the rug had already been pulled ...... initial downside is (only!) to 12850, from where one could or arguably see a bounce.
am currently only short SOLA, which i openbed this morning