rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

I didn't place a short yesterday although as its trading above 16500 today I may end up making a play. I'll post it here if I do..

Taken from WorldFirst

Rampant retail sales salvage sterling’s week

Off the back of the softer-than-expected UK inflation data last Tuesday, sterling looked set for a week in which it would concede ground to both the dollar and euro. However, there was still plenty of mileage in UK data, evident in the astonishing retail sales figure that fuelled the pound higher by the end of Friday. The Eurozone also posted a drop in the rate of inflation on Thursday, which weighed on the euro following the ECB monthly report that same morning. After a strong start to the week, the dollar exhausted the momentum it gained from the US’s own encouraging retail sales figure on Tuesday, as jobless claims numbers were mixed and CPI came in as expected on Thursday afternoon. This morning’s mixed Chinese GDP data will have set the tone for risk this week, but the market’s memory is short and the UK’s retail sales spurt in December will likely be long forgotten by the time we hit the Bank of England’s minutes, which are published on Wednesday of this week.

The UK retail sector reported year-on-year sales growth of 5.3% (6.1% excluding fuel) on Friday morning and this contrasted with expectations of 2.6%, which some felt was overly optimistic given the UK’s underwhelming annualised CPI figure of 2.0% on Tuesday. This ran counter to anecdotal evidence, as retailers have been stumbling over themselves to issue profit warnings and revise expected earnings at the start of this year following what was perceived to have been a lacklustre holiday season. Although an increase in consumer spending should be broadly welcomed - even if at the expense of retailers’ margins - such an increase conforms to the narrative that has been trundling along for months now; credit has been fuelling UK consumer spending in the absence of meaningful nominal wage growth. However, a hefty revision or poor January figures – as consumers sober up and deleverage again – would not surprise us a month down the line.

US retail sales growth could not boast the same magnitude as the UK’s figures, but inflation stateside appeared more robust than the price growth picture here, given that it rebounded to August’s rate of change of 1.5% on Thursday. In the early hours of Thursday morning, Australian employment change showed a fall of 22,600, confounding expectations of an increase of 7,500 and torpedoing AUD versus GBP and USD.

This week starts slowly due to the public holiday in the US today, but things should get more interesting by Wednesday, when we have the usual raft of UK unemployment data accompanied by the Bank of England minutes. The German Constitutional Court ruling on the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions is now expected sometime tomorrow, along with ZEW sentiment in the morning and Spanish short-term bond auctions. Chinese manufacturing PMI and European services PMIs mark the start of Thursday, followed by US Jobless Claims that afternoon. The World Economic Forum in Davos kicks off on Wednesday and lasts the rest of the week, so we’re also guaranteed a few humdingers from the odd central banker here and there, which could cause market movements independent of the data schedule.

Wall St, from 15th Nov the old bullish range broke, tested higher and then dropped back into the old range before 18th December when it goes again and really breaks out a high of something like 16599. If the new trend holds and I have my doubts as the gradient looks too steep for a start we'll see this high broken. However the top of the old existing trend currently around 16000 is where support lies (I don't think 16400 has been fully tested) and thats a massive potential shift south in the ever expanding support resistance lines.

When you consider that Wall St opened 2013 trading at around 13500 and ended 3000 pts higher at 16500 thats a rise of some 22%, no wonder some believe the market is clearly in a bubble.

Don't forget to watch out for the IMF at 2:30pm, guys.

why does the IMF have any credibility left?

Don't know. Don't care. But it's an event risk which is likely to dominate today's US session and it's been omitted from the £am calendar.

Even auntie has it :- IMF expected to raise UK growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to raise its growth forecast for the UK economy later on Tuesday.

Reports suggest it now expects the economy to grow 2.4% this year - faster than any other major European economy - against its previous forecast of 1.9%.

This would bring its forecast in line with that of the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility.

The IMF is also expected to raise its global growth outlook slightly to 3.7%.

The group's managing director, Christine Lagarde, said earlier this month that the IMF would be upgrading its growth forecasts.

You placed another short on the FTSE yet Skinny? I seam to remember you were holding out for the 6860's...

Not yet - target slightly higher now.

Last year's intraday high @6875.62

IMF Hikes UK 2014 Growth Outlook to 2.4% from Previous 1.8% Forecast
IMF: As US Fed Exits Easy Money Policies, Expect 'Complex' Global Capital Flows
IMF Hikes US 2014 Growth Forecast to 2.8% From Previous 2.6% Outlook
IMF Ups 2014 Japan Growth Outlook to 1.7% from Previous 1.3% Forecast
IMF: Euro Zone Easy Money Policy Vital to Avoid Deflation Risk in Weaker Economies
IMF: China Must Contain Building Financial Risks Without Excessively Slowing Growth

IMF Raises 2014 Global Growth Forecast to 3.7% From Previous 3.6% Outlook

IMF raises UK economic growth forecast

IMF as forecast, no surprises

Missed the DOW..!!

Small long DOW @16,413.9!!

Brave call, best of luck with that one..

Yes - not looking too clever!

Got my fingers crossed for you. I've been struggeling to find support numbers to go long off at these hights. Carrying a few FTSE shorts also, so not that comfortable adding to indicies risk at the moment. This year the market just seams to want to go higher.

Looks like the DOW might be about to test that range I was talking about earlier. Its outside the current lower trendline.. (see last charts I posted today)