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Dowgate Capital - Capitalising on the booming AIM market (DGT)     

overgrowth - 09 Feb 2005 20:52

Dowgate Capital (DGT) are sitting in the middle of a goldmine!

This company through their sole trading arm City Financial Associates are looking to take full advantage of the "booming" AIM market this year. Dowgate provide NOMAD (NOMinated ADvisor) services to AIM companies and also have full Corporate Broker status which means that they can fund placements on behalf of the companies they represent.

On first sight, the fact that Dowgate exist in the often veiled financial services sector makes you think twice about investing in company such as this because it would be impossible to understand what they were doing - however, think again!

DGT bring new companies to the AIM (Alternative Investment Market). For each new company "floated" on AIM, they take arrangement fees when acting as NOMAD. After the company is launched then for a nice steady earner DGT get another healthy chunk of cash every year for looking after them (note that all AIM companies must have a nominated adviser - thereby securing a ready source of recurring income).

Because DGT also act as a Corporate broker they can get a very healthy percentage for arranging placement of shares with insititutions before a new company floats. In addition, because placements come outside the sphere of yearly NOMAD work, they can also gain healthy percentages of placements which companies may need to make throughout the year when they need a quick injection of cash to speed growth.

Current NOMADships: 28 companies represented (gives recurring income of approx 480,000 per year)

Current on-going Brokerage agreements: 19 companies (income depends on placements)

For flotations, depending on the size of a company, fees charged will be anything from 50,000 to 100,000+ For placements (the real earner), DGT get anything from 3% to around 12% of the TOTAL AMOUNT RAISED - For example a new company raising 3M though a placement will earn DGT anything from 90,000 to 360,000 ! These figures are indicative as actual deals all differ due to circumstances and DGT sometimes take payment in shares - they still have a tasty chunk of Setstone shares and when this Russian exploration company comes back to AIM, predictions are that the share price will rocket. Note that the amount that this little company can earn in fees is huge and every new deal that comes through we know will contribute another healthy chunk into the bottom line. The good news with every new floatation means that it's another chunk of recurring revenue which could go on for years, with DGT having to do very little. New clients gained in 2005 are:

Mediazest (NOMAD & broker) Elite Strategies (NOMAD) Process Handling (NOMAD) Poland Investment Fund (NOMAD) Nanotech Energy (NOMAD & broker) Archimedia Ventures (NOMAD & broker) Red Leopard Holdings (NOMAD) Alba Mineral Resources (NOMAD & broker) Intandem Films (NOMAD & broker) Motive Television (NOMAD) IncaGold (NOMAD) Sportswinbet (NOMAD & Broker) Infoscreen Networks (NOMAD & Broker) Mark Kingsley (NOMAD & Broker) Croatia Ventures (NOMAD & Broker) Pantheon Leisure (NOMAD) Firenze Ventures (Ofex Advisor) FlightStore Group (NOMAD & Broker) Euro Capital Projects (NOMAD) Pearl Street Holdings (NOMAD) Worldwide Natural Resources (Ofex Advisor) Dovedale Ventures (Ofex Advisor) Other 2005 work completed:Neptune-Calculus VCT offer for subs of up to 12 million Advisory work for TGM on London Bus disposal for 20.4M Advisory work for Creightons on property disposal Advisory work for Hampton Trust on company restructuring Advisory work for Interbulk Investments on acquisition of Inbulk Advisory work for Fundamental-e Investments on two disposals Advisory work for Designer Vision re: Design Rights against Centurion Electronics

Click Here for fundamentals and profit projections.
Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=DGT&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=DGT&Si

overgrowth - 22 Aug 2005 15:15 - 1402 of 2787

It's getting very close to that point - the head and shoulders is almost complete.

rawsthornebj001 - 22 Aug 2005 15:31 - 1403 of 2787

what on earth has caused this sudden landslide? I can only speculate that there is potential bad news in the pipeline?

stockdog - 22 Aug 2005 15:47 - 1404 of 2787

Well, I guess the MMs have marked down the price until the sell on news brigade have done their worst. There have been a number of sterady sells today including the 2million showing as a buy (delayed from one hour earlier when it was clearly a sell).

Just have to sit and wait it out. Around the 0.48-0.54p level I expect buyers to re-emerge - hopefully TR among them, possibly me.

sd

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 00:50 - 1405 of 2787

I think we're going to see a last gasp dip first thing tomorrow and then some serious buying action. Fundamentals say grossly oversold, TA says that we're at the end of this downward cycle and the trades today are showing buying confidence returning in part.

I note that the sells after results were all relatively small apart from the obvious couple of T-trades, the MMs are doing well with the clear out.

DGT posts a respectable profit, costs have only increased slightly and as a percentage of turnover (which doubled!) are well down compared to H1 2004 and everyone sells!

It beggars belief. All I can assume is that too many got carried away with our (less than official) estimates, bought in without thinking and then sold out without thinking too (doh!).

All those who sold will soon be looking at the price totally mystified as to why it should suddenly bounce back and rocket up in the right direction. It's all in the figures which are excellent compared to previous years and the prospects for H2 remain healthy as TR has confirmed that he is "confident as to the outlook for the second half".

Note, not "cautiously optimistic" or "optimisitic" or "looking to achieve satisfactory results for the second half". That says a lot in my book and suggests that there are some tasty transactions already in progress and/or stacked up in the order book to keep the team very busy for the rest of the year.

Let the buying commence...

corehard - 23 Aug 2005 10:30 - 1406 of 2787

og - Looks like movements this morning will bear out your comments.

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 10:59 - 1407 of 2787

corehard - yes the buyers are back and the sellers are starting to peter out now.

Any large buying at this stage will shift the price up very quickly by the looks of things, as it did appear that the MMs were slightly overzealous in marking the price down rapidly to get lots of tasty spread from the sellers.

It looks as though we're now in for a steady climb back up, with more substantial hikes in price as details of new transactions completed for H2 come to light.

rawsthornebj001 - 23 Aug 2005 11:36 - 1408 of 2787

just bought another 400k at best, showing .62 contract shows .59 sign of weakness? Chart has the look and feel of a bounce to .65-.70. Im a bit of a newbie as far as sub-penny stuff is concerned erratic price vacilations etc. If I have to average down again will probably have a notifiable interest!

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 11:45 - 1409 of 2787

rawsthornebj001 - an excellent time to buy IMHO.

Based on pure fundamentals the share price should be around the 0.70p mark which means that the recent selling has been well overdone.

Technically, we've just bounced back up from oversold territory on the RSI and stochs are converging into the next cross. The head and shoulders formation has completed with a higher low which suggests continuation of the longer term upward trend.

MMs are happy to deal within the spread if it means that they're going to get plenty of customers and still make a decent profit - not a sign of weakness.

Onward and upward!

rawsthornebj001 - 23 Aug 2005 12:19 - 1410 of 2787

Interesting, just tried to deal again and place 10k at limit .59 (still showing .62 to buy) bounced back with a call from broker best is now .62 Hmm? I thought there would be bucketfulls of this stock sloshing around the MM's ankles

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 12:34 - 1411 of 2787

rawsthornebj001 - level 2 is showing 3v1 which means 3 market makers want to buy and only 1 wants to sell - this suggests that larger buyers placed orders this morning which the MMs are trying to fill. Price is all down to supply and demand for those guys.

The other thing is that 10K's worth is going to be above NMS (normal market size) so the MMs will always be looking at a premium (or at least full offer) for larger trades.

stockdog - 23 Aug 2005 13:31 - 1412 of 2787

Looking reassuring with today's trades strongly favouring the blue flag. However, og, not as confident in the chart as you suggest. RSI only just nicked the top level of the oversold area, STOCH is still heading TOWARDS oversold territory, MACD hasn't started to cross up and On Balance Volume is looking frankly a bit sickly. Volume has been declining since results peak selling. Not saying these are negative indicators, more inconclusive. Can't tell whether the bounce will continue north to 70p or start to form a penant at current level.

Still holding but, with a more than full portfolio allocation, have not been tempted yet to go further overweight. Best of luck to rawsthornebj - if you're still looking to fill out your allocation, now is a great time to be buying.

Fingers crossed for some nice sized late-reported buys and some fresh client/transaction news, now that August is almost through.

sd

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 13:40 - 1413 of 2787

sd - I'm not using stochs as an oversold indicator more as a change of trend indicator.

Ok, I was jumping the gun slightly, though %K is now moving up to cross over %D which is a sign of the next upward cycle.

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 13:47 - 1414 of 2787

rawsthornebj001 - I can't send you a message through moneyam I think you need to edit your profile and add an e-mail address (which will be hidden to everyone else).

Regarding level 2, it's probably most handy for trading SETS (e.g. FTSE100) stocks as you can see what's built up in the order book. It can be a bit hit and miss for small caps. as the you can never be 100% sure of the motives behind the MMs actions. Though it's handy as an extra indicator for trading small caps. I wouldn't go to the expense of subscribing to level 2 just for that purpose.

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 14:25 - 1415 of 2787

sd - I've added OBV to the charts - just starting to turn up nicely now.

v. tight spread now 0.60-0.62p - looks like a tick up is on the cards shortly.

rawsthornebj001 - 23 Aug 2005 15:11 - 1416 of 2787

just gone to .65 so doubt my earlier order will be filled! OG. has the 3v1 L2 situation been settled? 10+% risk averse spread back in place, however noted some very recent buys at .01p below price.

ptholden - 23 Aug 2005 15:12 - 1417 of 2787

Just back from the golf and nice to see the buyers back in again. Sold some of my holding last week on the day of the Interims. Needed the cash for other activities, but still retain a substantial holding. Will keep an eye on the thread, but concentrating on other stuff at the moment. Trying to get my head around Betting Exchanges and a bit of fun with online poker.

pth

overgrowth - 23 Aug 2005 15:56 - 1418 of 2787

L2 is now 2v1, suggests that the MMs are not as desparate for shares as they were earlier - perhaps a large sell to come through at the end of the day (along with a few large buys I suspect given that the price has been nudged up).

stockdog - 23 Aug 2005 17:16 - 1419 of 2787

og - yes the chart has improved quite significantly through today and we have to take those last two T trades of 1m and 800k as buys since they were probably transacted earlier in the day when the price was sub .6p. You were probably right to look forward a little more than me. Let's hope we continue the improvement and get back to a solid mid .60's range by end of the week or even better get a good hold back on the 0.69p strong support line.

sd


bosley - 23 Aug 2005 18:55 - 1420 of 2787

pth, i have been looking at the partypoker site after watching some of the poker games on tele. looks like a bit of fun and i am toying with the idea of having a go . if you have already started, could you tell me which site you are on and whether it's any good ? cheers.
btw, sold dgt as soon as they started going down , once bitten and all that. i might buy back . bought pxs which is worth a look and doing me proud at the moment. also icu has good potential.

EWRobson - 23 Aug 2005 19:09 - 1421 of 2787

og: good thinking! By the way, what is OBV - a new one on me and looks interesting. I think your 0.7p is cautious - I'll repeat my thoughts from the weekend:

"So, do you want the bad news or the good news? The bad news is the charts: a bit difficult to see a support level above 0.4p. However, the fundamentals would appear to support an sp of around 0.9p on diluted earnings of 0.47p per share. It would be interesting to have sd's comments on whether turnover is somewhat down on expectations because of delays pending completion. I expect that more credence has been given to the projections on bb's than expected or professionals have been making their own calculations.

The good news is also in the figures. Whilst overheads are up, it is confirmed that the marginal overhead growth is relatively low against increased profits. So, at 2.5m turnover for the year, the pbt would probably be about 650K and on 3m about 1m (agree?). Given the confidence in current trading and the comment about the proportion of pre-determined revenue it seems reasonable to go for the continuation of the rising trend in revenue."

My basic point is that the best way at present to forecast the second half is to use the straight line on revenue and the lower gradient straight line on overheads.
I like the look of todays graph which is a nice staircase up; coule well continue.

Eric
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