Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

It was for me, MM.

:o)

BTW, see Moneyam mobile for news on the upcoming improvements to the MAM mobile stuff, which will include FX (like wot I showed you when we didn't meet at the London Traders' Day).

Anyone know why we just spiked down on cable like that?

nope, buts it's coming my way !

Beeble far enough yet....

you can leg in you know
rather than wait for the last pip

17800-17810 looks a good entry to me

177.80

Am I reading this right for UK interest rates
short stg sept 5%
dec 5.25%

and 4.75% by next month?

may get the chance in 20 mins - 1.30

edit re int rates; who says ?
another .25 nxt month wouldn't surprise me

Well it will have to break the uptrend to get any better (lower)

Beebs,

They're support buying at 17800. Fillyerboots with a long ...... you know you want to.

:o)

drat & blast....

looks like they did their homework across the pond,
they quite often come in all guns blazing and just buy $

c'est la vie.......

that retracement back to 17815 and up again really is starting to open up 17900
once we get over the highs of 7855

i'm in

Beeble...its been waiting for you..
now it can fly

:~) david

It's flying like a turkey atm.

Wedge getting smaller in the 15's and hourly

19 May 2004 19:12 GMT


=FOREX VIEW: No Clear Winners, Losers From Rampaging Oil

By Tom Barkley
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Higher oil prices have created uneasiness in foreign exchange, as in other markets, but haven't resulted in a clear delineation of winners and losers among the major currencies.

In part, that's because of various countervailing influences - with the U.S.'s vulnerability as chief global consumer of oil somewhat offset by the fact that oil revenues are denominated in dollars, and many oil-producing countries use reserve funds and other techniques to protect against price swings.

The lack of a clear oil-related trend in currencies is also due to uncertainty about whether the recent jump in crude oil to 13-year highs above $40 a barrel is just a natural extension of a global economy in recovery mode, or more a reflection of rising unrest in the Middle East.

So far, the impact is expected be less disruptive than the supply-driven oil spikes of the 1970s and the volatility leading up to the Gulf War in the early 1990s - events that caused the dollar to slide an average of 3.5%, according to Rebecca Patterson, global currency strategist at JPMorgan in New York.

This time around, energy prices are being stoked at least as much by demand from the global growth engine as by concerns about unrest in the Middle East. And the dominance of either factor could have an opposite impact on currency markets.

"The `why' is the million dollar question in oil prices in terms of looking for currency trades," said Patterson. "Right now we're kind of in this gray zone, where global growth still looks very strong, but we do have what feels to be increasing geopolitical risk."

That's left currency markets volatile but largely rangebound amid the oil price surge. Speculation overnight that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would boost its production ceiling this weekend buoyed currencies that stand to benefit the most from global growth, such as the yen and Australian and New Zealand dollars.

That move was reversed somewhat though after a source at OPEC downplayed the chance of any agreement since not all ministers are expected to attend the meeting in Amsterdam. OPEC is still expected to increase quotas when it meets June 3 in Beirut, however.

"Currency markets have been incredibly choppy in the last few weeks, and I think investors aren't sure what to focus on more," added Patterson.


Volatility To Hold Sway

Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist for North America at Royal Bank of Scotland in New York, doesn't expect higher oil prices to be a big threat to the global economy, or currency markets.

"To the extent that the price is reflecting not a supply constraint but excess demand, it will work itself out," he said. "I'm not looking for any serious mishap on the production side of the global economy."

With global interest rates at such low levels, there is plenty of room to tighten monetary policy to counter inflation, he said. That will likely cause some disruption of bond markets, and thus to currencies, as well.

Still, because none of the major economies, with the possible exception of the U.K., are self-sufficient in energy needs, Bhagavatula said he would be "hard put to judge" which currencies stand to benefit from an oil shock - even if triggered by events in the Middle East.

"So I'm expecting sideways volatility certainly through the end of this year," he added.

Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank in New York, also cautioned against placing currency bets on oil prices. "I think it's a story that we're watching for economic purposes," he said. "I don't think one would do well by treating the dollar as if it has a close relationship with oil."

Instead, oil prices could provide some indication of where interest rates are headed, but not necessarily in the way many people think. Rising energy costs could actually dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising rates too much because they could act as a drag on the economy.

"Oil price increases in the U.S. are seen almost as a regressive tax, as a brake on the economy," said Chandler, adding that some market participants are speculating longer-term yields may actually ease due to concerns over a slowdown.

That leaves interest rates, once again, at the heart of currency market concerns.

Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust, said that while oil prices are definitely an issue, "I think the market will still fluctuate more with the perceived changes in future interest rates by the Fed, and we're apparently in a waiting period" on that issue, as well.


(Tom Barkley is a special writer covering foreign exchange in New York. He previously covered convertible and high-yield debt markets.)


-By Tom Barkley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4385

tom.barkley@dowjones.com