Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

BTW, see Moneyam mobile for news on the upcoming improvements to the MAM mobile stuff, which will include FX (like wot I showed you when we didn't meet at the London Traders' Day).

Anyone know why we just spiked down on cable like that?

nope, buts it's coming my way !

Beeble far enough yet....

you can leg in you know
rather than wait for the last pip

17800-17810 looks a good entry to me

177.80

Am I reading this right for UK interest rates
short stg sept 5%
dec 5.25%

and 4.75% by next month?

may get the chance in 20 mins - 1.30

edit re int rates; who says ?
another .25 nxt month wouldn't surprise me

Well it will have to break the uptrend to get any better (lower)

Beebs,

They're support buying at 17800. Fillyerboots with a long ...... you know you want to.

:o)

drat & blast....

looks like they did their homework across the pond,
they quite often come in all guns blazing and just buy $

c'est la vie.......

that retracement back to 17815 and up again really is starting to open up 17900
once we get over the highs of 7855

i'm in

Beeble...its been waiting for you..
now it can fly

:~) david

It's flying like a turkey atm.

Wedge getting smaller in the 15's and hourly

19 May 2004 19:12 GMT


=FOREX VIEW: No Clear Winners, Losers From Rampaging Oil

By Tom Barkley
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Higher oil prices have created uneasiness in foreign exchange, as in other markets, but haven't resulted in a clear delineation of winners and losers among the major currencies.

In part, that's because of various countervailing influences - with the U.S.'s vulnerability as chief global consumer of oil somewhat offset by the fact that oil revenues are denominated in dollars, and many oil-producing countries use reserve funds and other techniques to protect against price swings.

The lack of a clear oil-related trend in currencies is also due to uncertainty about whether the recent jump in crude oil to 13-year highs above $40 a barrel is just a natural extension of a global economy in recovery mode, or more a reflection of rising unrest in the Middle East.

So far, the impact is expected be less disruptive than the supply-driven oil spikes of the 1970s and the volatility leading up to the Gulf War in the early 1990s - events that caused the dollar to slide an average of 3.5%, according to Rebecca Patterson, global currency strategist at JPMorgan in New York.

This time around, energy prices are being stoked at least as much by demand from the global growth engine as by concerns about unrest in the Middle East. And the dominance of either factor could have an opposite impact on currency markets.

"The `why' is the million dollar question in oil prices in terms of looking for currency trades," said Patterson. "Right now we're kind of in this gray zone, where global growth still looks very strong, but we do have what feels to be increasing geopolitical risk."

That's left currency markets volatile but largely rangebound amid the oil price surge. Speculation overnight that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would boost its production ceiling this weekend buoyed currencies that stand to benefit the most from global growth, such as the yen and Australian and New Zealand dollars.

That move was reversed somewhat though after a source at OPEC downplayed the chance of any agreement since not all ministers are expected to attend the meeting in Amsterdam. OPEC is still expected to increase quotas when it meets June 3 in Beirut, however.

"Currency markets have been incredibly choppy in the last few weeks, and I think investors aren't sure what to focus on more," added Patterson.


Volatility To Hold Sway

Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist for North America at Royal Bank of Scotland in New York, doesn't expect higher oil prices to be a big threat to the global economy, or currency markets.

"To the extent that the price is reflecting not a supply constraint but excess demand, it will work itself out," he said. "I'm not looking for any serious mishap on the production side of the global economy."

With global interest rates at such low levels, there is plenty of room to tighten monetary policy to counter inflation, he said. That will likely cause some disruption of bond markets, and thus to currencies, as well.

Still, because none of the major economies, with the possible exception of the U.K., are self-sufficient in energy needs, Bhagavatula said he would be "hard put to judge" which currencies stand to benefit from an oil shock - even if triggered by events in the Middle East.

"So I'm expecting sideways volatility certainly through the end of this year," he added.

Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Bank in New York, also cautioned against placing currency bets on oil prices. "I think it's a story that we're watching for economic purposes," he said. "I don't think one would do well by treating the dollar as if it has a close relationship with oil."

Instead, oil prices could provide some indication of where interest rates are headed, but not necessarily in the way many people think. Rising energy costs could actually dissuade the Federal Reserve from raising rates too much because they could act as a drag on the economy.

"Oil price increases in the U.S. are seen almost as a regressive tax, as a brake on the economy," said Chandler, adding that some market participants are speculating longer-term yields may actually ease due to concerns over a slowdown.

That leaves interest rates, once again, at the heart of currency market concerns.

Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust, said that while oil prices are definitely an issue, "I think the market will still fluctuate more with the perceived changes in future interest rates by the Fed, and we're apparently in a waiting period" on that issue, as well.


(Tom Barkley is a special writer covering foreign exchange in New York. He previously covered convertible and high-yield debt markets.)


-By Tom Barkley, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4385

tom.barkley@dowjones.com

MARKET TALK/FX: Stock Index Futures Slip From Highs

[MARKET TALK/FX is edited by Darlene Ross]
[of Dow Jones Newswires, 201 938-2085; darlene.ross@dowjones.com]

1913 GMT [Dow Jones] Stock index futures slip from earlier highs, traders say some news on Iraq may be to blame amid reports a US helicopter may have killed 40 in Iraqi wedding party. Traders report Man lead seller in S&Ps, good for 500 contracts and trapping some day-trading longs. Support 1093.80, part of a technical chart gap that extends down to 1090.30. June S&P last +5.70, June Nasdaq +15.50, June DJIA +49. (KJZ)

1842 GMT [Dow Jones] Most fed funds futures contracts fall with losses in other interest rate futures. The market is "reacting off a strong Dow," says fed funds pit trader. DJIA +61 pts, 0.62%, to 10030. Trader notes that Fed expectations priced into contract still remain much the same. He says about a 96% chance of a 25 BP rate hike now priced in for the June 30 FOMC meeting. Contract also sees a 100% chance of either a 50 BP hike in August or a 25 BP hike in July and another 25 BP hike in August. (CMN)

1839 GMT [Dow Jones] Chile peso's gains this week put it back on strengthening trend, traders say. Break of CLP635/USD resistance opens way for CLP630.00. Closes at CLP636.20 vs CLP640.50. (STK)

1832 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD drifting lower, giving back gains as it struggles to hold much above 1.2000 after failure to make successful break above 1.2050. Now at 1.2003, recent range of 1.1750-1.2050 looks intact for a while yet. USD clawing back losses elsewhere, with USD/JPY bouncing back from 1-week low to 112.76. (JMG)

1650 GMT [Dow Jones] Stock index futures building steam as session wears on. Good dealer flows reported, some playing both sides of market. One technician says June S&P needs to close above 1102.00 to recharge the bullish trend; otherwise, move could be classified as on oversold bounce within a range. Nasdaq showing signs of life and leading market up, seen as positive sign. June S&P last +11.70, June Nasdaq +24.00, June DJIA +100. (KJZ)

1649 GMT [Dow Jones] Fed's Stern very much sticking to same tune as that of his colleagues, in stressing inflation levels aren't worrying. "We haven't seen much of an uptick in inflation, just a touch so far," he tells CNBC. "I think we want to conduct policy so that growth can be extended over extended period of time." Stern also says that while higher oil prices will "crimp spending a bit," the economy will adjust "reasonably well to fluctuations in energy prices." Stern's currently not an FOMC voter. (GMM)

1549 GMT [Dow Jones] The implied volatility on 10-year note contracts is lower despite the weakness in prices, notes BondTalk.com. Implied volatility in the at-the-money options is under 8%, a potential sign of complacency about the bond market's ability to hold current levels. (CMN)

1534 GMT [Dow Jones] USD certainly not tracking US Tsy yields Wed. USD sliding across board, yields near intraday highs, with 10-yr note yielding 4.78%. USD/JPY lower at 112.60, EUR/USD up at 1.2030. But USD inverse relationship with gold well intact - spot gold up around $6 at $383/oz. (JMG)

1531 GMT [Dow Jones] Stock index futures extend gains, pass resistance at last week's highs. June S&P moves above 38.2% retracement level of 1103.80, a key technical marker. Buyers in S&Ps include ABN and Lehman with 800 contracts, Morgan Stanley and Goldman with 500. JP Morgan takes sell-side, good for 800, Goldman also sells 600 and Morgan Stanley sells 500. June S&P last +13.90, June Nasdaq +27.00, June DJIA +118. (KJZ)

1531 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/CAD has extended its losses and is flirting with a break through important support in the C$1.3745-50 area. Currently at C$1.3763 after touching a low of C$1.3744. After C$1.3745-50, next support seen at C$1.3720, and then more critically at C$1.3700. (DBC)

1525 GMT [Dow Jones] USD slips to intraday lows vs several major counterparts. EUR/USD jumps to 1.2044, and will likely test resistance around 1.2050-60, says HSBC chief currency strategist Marc Chandler. Sees move driven more by positioning than fundamentals, adding, "In general, people think the dollar has gotten as much out of the interest rate story as it's likely to get." Now at 1.2027. USD/JPY at 112.59 after dip to 112.44, USD/CHF at 1.2768 from low of 1.2751. (RTB)

1522 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD looking to test key resistance around 1.2050-60 as USD slips across board. USD/JPY managing to hold up around 112.50 but if stops building up below there get triggered, EUR/USD will make real test that resistance. At 1.2030, USD/JPY 112.51. (JMG)

1514 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY slide appears to be driving USD lower across board, says Japanese bk dealer. Reports of US Taylor saying no BOJ/MOF intervention since March 16, Japan economic recovery looking sustainable, could be catalyst. "He's just stating the obvious but the market is desperate to sell USD/JPY and this is just the excuse." At 112.55, stops lying below. EUR/USD up to 1.2030. (JMG)