The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

During the period between 1929 and 1932, the Federal Reserve eased rates from 6% to 2.5%, a rate-cutting crusade that did nothing to prevent the Dow Jones Industrial Average from plummeting 89% in the steepest stock market crash ever amidst a period of unprecedented economic contraction known as the Great Depression.
From 1984 and 1992, the Federal Reserve slashed rates from 11.75% -- TO -- 3%. This period was marked by the worst stock market collapse since the Great Depression (October 1987), record-high unemployment, a debilitating savings and loans crisis, slow GDP, and economic recession.
Similarly, a Federal Reserve rate cut from 6.5% -- To -- 1.25% from 2000 to 2002 proved impotent against the longest stock market decline since the Great Depression, the tech-bubble bursting, and a brief economic recession.

fascinating history, but probably not relevant to the present

its different this time?

Wouldn't surprise me. Economies are like super tankers, they take a long time to speed up or slow down......even if they hit something! I'm sure I read somewhere that there's an 18 mth to 2 year lag in "cause and effect" with interest rate/policy changes.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Not entirely sure where to post this comment, but this thread is as good as anywhere. I have skimmed through most of the threads on the front page today and what stands out is that most of the stocks are in a downtrend; downtrends ranging from the short term to the long term. There are at least two conclusions from this observation I can draw; one MAM posters like to bottom pick and rarely achieve success or / and the Bull market is over and it's time for the bears. Personally, I think it's both. Doesn't say much for our stock picking skills though, which just goes to show, never invest in anything on the basis of what you read on a financial BB :)

Thought I'd noticed that too, but was begining to wonder if my TA was up to scratch! Even in a downtrend though you have spikes to the top of the channel, so it's still possible to make money for those happy to take a risk or two. I get the feeling from a number of the postings that many are taking the "traders" approach to investing these days anyway...... :-)

Personally I'll stay with cash unless the charts behave sufficently to enter at a price I'm comfortable with..... For people with shorting ability I guess downtrends are good news anyway....


Strawbs.

no bear yet

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in four years during the third quarter, growing at a real annual rate of 4.9%, the Commerce Department said Thursday in making its second estimate of growth for the three-month period

US can't lower interest rate indefinitely to create a false economy. Inflation would soon bite.


From Times Online - December 17, 2007

CBI gloom helps depress pound and shares

Shares in London slide more than 100 points as CBI takes a gloomy view of the UK economy and fears grow over US inflation - Peter Stiff

Leading shares and the pound fell sharply this morning after an overnight sell-off of Asian stocks, the highest US inflation numbers for two years and the gloominess of UK chiefs over next year's economic growth.

The FTSE 100 lost more than 100 points by mid-morning but then hovered at about 6,300, down 96.50 points, or 1.51 per cent, while the pound was trading at $2.0138.

Markets were hit in the UK by a CBI downgrade of its 2008 economic forecast, its third revision this year, because of continuing credit market difficulties, a high oil price and weak domestic and global demand.

In its latest quarterly economic forecast the business group puts next year's annual rate of GDP growth at 2.0 per cent, down 0.2 per cent on September’s figure.

It also sees consumer spending growth slowing to 1.9 per cent next year from 3.1 per cent this year.

Adding to the pressure were losses in Asia, led by the banking sector, after reports that the leading regional banks would become involved in the US sub-prime rescue fund.

The market was also reacting to higher US inflation figures, reported on Friday, which reduce the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and which sent the Dow Jones industrial average almost 200 points lower.

DOW appears to be in an elliot 3rd of a 3rd , the biggest move wave , take care out there.

can you paste graph please, doctor? Thanks

WTF is an elliot 3rd of a 3rd?

look at candlesticks graph for Dow

14279(oct) to 12707 wave 1

12707 to 13850(dec) wave 2

13850 to 13059 wave (1) of wave 3

13059 to 13600 wave (2) of wave 3

13600 to now wave (3 ) of wave 3

you should be able to follow that :-))

pasting graph would be easier

go to FTSE thread .... lots of charts there for indices

done ?

and the target would be 12k but i am a sceptic of elliot

and heres a man in touch - NOT


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. financial markets are "strong and solid," President Bush said Friday and urged Congress against raising taxes when it returns from its holiday break. Raising taxes would be "the worst thing" lawmakers could do for the economy, Bush said. Bush also said U.S. gasoline refineries should expand their output if Americans are concerned about rising gasoline prices. He also reiterated a White House plan to help keep homeowners in their houses.

Marketwatch:

Kevin Giddis, Morgan Keegan & Co.
"That stink you may smell was the jobs number; the December employment report failed at almost all levels to convince traders that the U.S. economy isn't headed for a recession," said Kevin Giddis, managing director, fixed income trading, Morgan Keegan & Co.
"Since 1949 the unemployment rate has never risen by this magnitude without the economy being in recession," said John Ryding, chief U.S. economist, Bear Stearns.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Just when you thought it was over, trouble in the $2.3 trillion bond-insurance business could trigger another wave of big write-downs from banks and brokerage firms, experts said Friday.

Looks like your elliott wave pattern came out spot on with 12k being almost hit, thanks for the info last month by the way, didn't see the thread again until today.

Shouldn't this thread now be called not so dubious sell off, how about fairly obvious sell off?