The market seems to be selling-off on the back of limited bad news imo, apart from the dollar that is.

If you can hold your nerve and apart from any short term requirements to offload poor performing stocks, I have a couple!!, my advice would be sit tight. This does not have the feel of the tech(mining!) bubble at all. Difference being there are a lot of good fundamentals, unlike in 2000 when there were a lot of over rated nothing companies.

Wouldn't surprise me. Economies are like super tankers, they take a long time to speed up or slow down......even if they hit something! I'm sure I read somewhere that there's an 18 mth to 2 year lag in "cause and effect" with interest rate/policy changes.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Not entirely sure where to post this comment, but this thread is as good as anywhere. I have skimmed through most of the threads on the front page today and what stands out is that most of the stocks are in a downtrend; downtrends ranging from the short term to the long term. There are at least two conclusions from this observation I can draw; one MAM posters like to bottom pick and rarely achieve success or / and the Bull market is over and it's time for the bears. Personally, I think it's both. Doesn't say much for our stock picking skills though, which just goes to show, never invest in anything on the basis of what you read on a financial BB :)

Thought I'd noticed that too, but was begining to wonder if my TA was up to scratch! Even in a downtrend though you have spikes to the top of the channel, so it's still possible to make money for those happy to take a risk or two. I get the feeling from a number of the postings that many are taking the "traders" approach to investing these days anyway...... :-)

Personally I'll stay with cash unless the charts behave sufficently to enter at a price I'm comfortable with..... For people with shorting ability I guess downtrends are good news anyway....


Strawbs.

no bear yet

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in four years during the third quarter, growing at a real annual rate of 4.9%, the Commerce Department said Thursday in making its second estimate of growth for the three-month period

US can't lower interest rate indefinitely to create a false economy. Inflation would soon bite.


From Times Online - December 17, 2007

CBI gloom helps depress pound and shares

Shares in London slide more than 100 points as CBI takes a gloomy view of the UK economy and fears grow over US inflation - Peter Stiff

Leading shares and the pound fell sharply this morning after an overnight sell-off of Asian stocks, the highest US inflation numbers for two years and the gloominess of UK chiefs over next year's economic growth.

The FTSE 100 lost more than 100 points by mid-morning but then hovered at about 6,300, down 96.50 points, or 1.51 per cent, while the pound was trading at $2.0138.

Markets were hit in the UK by a CBI downgrade of its 2008 economic forecast, its third revision this year, because of continuing credit market difficulties, a high oil price and weak domestic and global demand.

In its latest quarterly economic forecast the business group puts next year's annual rate of GDP growth at 2.0 per cent, down 0.2 per cent on September’s figure.

It also sees consumer spending growth slowing to 1.9 per cent next year from 3.1 per cent this year.

Adding to the pressure were losses in Asia, led by the banking sector, after reports that the leading regional banks would become involved in the US sub-prime rescue fund.

The market was also reacting to higher US inflation figures, reported on Friday, which reduce the chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and which sent the Dow Jones industrial average almost 200 points lower.

DOW appears to be in an elliot 3rd of a 3rd , the biggest move wave , take care out there.

can you paste graph please, doctor? Thanks

WTF is an elliot 3rd of a 3rd?

look at candlesticks graph for Dow

14279(oct) to 12707 wave 1

12707 to 13850(dec) wave 2

13850 to 13059 wave (1) of wave 3

13059 to 13600 wave (2) of wave 3

13600 to now wave (3 ) of wave 3

you should be able to follow that :-))

pasting graph would be easier

go to FTSE thread .... lots of charts there for indices

done ?

and the target would be 12k but i am a sceptic of elliot

and heres a man in touch - NOT


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. financial markets are "strong and solid," President Bush said Friday and urged Congress against raising taxes when it returns from its holiday break. Raising taxes would be "the worst thing" lawmakers could do for the economy, Bush said. Bush also said U.S. gasoline refineries should expand their output if Americans are concerned about rising gasoline prices. He also reiterated a White House plan to help keep homeowners in their houses.

Marketwatch:

Kevin Giddis, Morgan Keegan & Co.
"That stink you may smell was the jobs number; the December employment report failed at almost all levels to convince traders that the U.S. economy isn't headed for a recession," said Kevin Giddis, managing director, fixed income trading, Morgan Keegan & Co.
"Since 1949 the unemployment rate has never risen by this magnitude without the economy being in recession," said John Ryding, chief U.S. economist, Bear Stearns.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Just when you thought it was over, trouble in the $2.3 trillion bond-insurance business could trigger another wave of big write-downs from banks and brokerage firms, experts said Friday.

Looks like your elliott wave pattern came out spot on with 12k being almost hit, thanks for the info last month by the way, didn't see the thread again until today.

Shouldn't this thread now be called not so dubious sell off, how about fairly obvious sell off?

Black Tuesday" redirects here. For other uses, see Black Tuesday (disambiguation).


Crowd gathering on Wall Street.
The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Crash of 29, was - taking into consideration the full scope and longevity of its fallout - the most devastating stock market crash in American history. Two catchphrases, Black Thursday and Black Tuesday, evoke this collapse of stock values. Both are authentic, for the crash was no one-day affair. The initial crash occurred on Black Thursday (October 24, 1929), but it was the catastrophic downturn of Black Tuesday (October 29, 1929) five days later that precipitated widespread panic and the onset of unprecedented and long-lasting consequences for the United States. The collapse continued for a month. Economists and historians disagree as to what role the crash played in subsequent economic, social, and political events. Some consider it to be the beginning of the Great Depression, but most believe it was just one symptom.[citation needed]
It occasioned the institution of landmark financial reforms and new trading regulations.
At the time of the crash, New York City had grown to be a major metropolis and its Wall Street district one of the world's leading financial centers. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was the largest stock market in the world. The roaring twenties was a time of prosperity and excess in the city, and, despite warnings of speculation, many believed that the market could sustain high price levels. Irving Fisher proclaimed shortly before the crash, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[1] The euphoria and financial gains of that great bull market were shattered on October 24, 1929, Black Thursday, when share prices on the NYSE collapsed. Stock prices fell on that day and they continued to fall, at an unprecedented rate, for a full month.
In the days leading up to Black Thursday the market was unstable. Periods of panic selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery. After the crash the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered early in 1930, only to reverse again, reaching a low point of the great bear market in 1932. The market did not return to pre-1929 levels until late 1954,[2] and was lower at its July 8, 1932 level than it had been since the 1800s.[3]
Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his adult life pass by before getting back to even.

steveo , don,t think now that elliot is the new wonder method , they called it wrong for 4 years!!!!

and no i did not take advantage of the forecast for that very reason

but we should all have paid attention to the charts! ..... i'm an arsehole and allowed the emotion of thinking a bounce had to happen instead of obeying the rules and shorting at least modestly to protect

to reiterate what i have written in FTSE thread, i think it is very likley that we will now see a (significant) bounce, certainly in Dow and prob FTSE too when the Fed mades its pronouncements on Tuesday ..... what no one knows is whether or not that will be sustainable to any degree at all, or whether, after the 10 minute euphoria, we shall see a drop straight through the Dow 12000