Expectations for the remainder of 2008 for UK Coal
While output in the third quarter, and in particular in September, was reduced in part by non-recurring events, poor geology has continued to affect output at Kellingley and Thoresby. As a consequence, we believe that full year sales will total around 8 million tonnes, compared to earlier expectations of around 8.7 million tonnes (2007: 7.8m tonnes, excluding Maltby). We expect full year Deep Mine sales will be no more than 6.2 million tonnes and Surface Mines will realise circa 1.8 million tonnes.
In revenue terms for the full year, until recently we expected that part of this output shortfall would have been offset by higher than expected realised average sales prices. However, following the recent fall in the market price of coal we now expect an average fourth quarter sales price of 1.85 to 1.90 /GJ, taking fixed price contracts into account, making the average out-turn for the full year within our previously announced range of 1.90 to 1.95/GJ, rather than higher than this range as it might have been.
The world coal price has recently dropped from over $190 per tonne at the end of August for H2 2008 deliveries to $129 per tonne as of 14 October 2008 for Q4 2008 deliveries. At an exchange rate of circa 1:$1.75, this converts into a current UK market price of around 3/GJ. Compared to previous years, and indeed to the start of 2008 when the world coal price was around $118/tonne or 2.35/GJ at 1:$2, this remains a very high market price. However, very significant amounts of our deliveries are still contracted at prices historically fixed well below this level. The volume of these older contracts is set to fall sharply after next year.
It is disappointing that the geological conditions at Kellingley and Thoresby are likely to keep run-rate of production at these mines lower than we have previously expected until they can access their new seams towards the end of next year. This, and the recent drop in market price of coal from its record levels earlier this year, has a direct impact