The first ASOS Challenge was successful in the sense that it taught us a few lessons on investment timing. Only three of 11 shares ended in profit and that included ASOS itself: congratulations to legend for BNH and bosley for SEO. Back to the drawing board for the rest of us (over the year the portfolio would have thrashed any opposition!).

Participants welcome for the second challenge. Primary objective is to find shares that will double in value by 1st July, beating ASC in the process; secondary to be most successful stock-picker in terms of the value of your 20K portfolio. Rules are:

1.Each participant has 20K which can go into 1,2,3 or 4 shares in units of 5K.
2.ASC has 20K and is team yardstick, not in individual portfolios.
3.Duplication between entrants OK with no upper limit for total for one share.
4.Start weekend of 21st Jan. Buy price half way between closing offer and mid.
5.Latest time of entry to be 8 pm on Sunday, 23rd Jan.
6.Challenge to close Friday, 1st July.
7.Entrants can switch up to a total of 10K; av. of Friday close bid and mid.
8.Progress reports to rank shares by performance but also participants (initial only to protect from the ridicule of outsiders!).

Participants welcome. Just post selection here or on ASC thread.

Eric

Eric - not sure where you got the CRDA price from, but it would help my cause if you corrected it! Still confident the "tortoise" portfolio will do OK.

EW, you not been taking your memory tablets:-))

- 20 Jan'05 - 21:25 - 5 of 144 edit



Eric , would like to parrticipate, and the shares I would like to distribute the money between are (10k)BGT,(5k) AEN and(5k) MDW

BGT is a company started by the guys who owned Eidos and started Lara Croft.
AEN..the potential is threefold, just hope it doubles by July:-)
MDW is my baby in the medical sector. Have a money saving, proven PSA test for prostate cancer that can save the NHS millions

23 Jan'05 - 22:33 - 46 of 145 edit



Eric... well done but I thought I had chosen AEN, BGT, and MDW (not PCI and PDX) ta muchly for sorting it out

and here is your reply......Whoops:-))
24 Jan'05 - 20:21 - 56 of 145


Many thanks for feedback and corrections.
Jules: deleted PCI and PDX; added AEN at 697.5p and MDW at 9.09.
ramu: corrected PET to 53.75p, unfortunately.
snakey: corrected TAD to 9.94p, again unfortunately.
chad: sorry, but only fair to stick to the deadline. Comp. runs to 1st July;
if enthusiasm persists, no doubt we will repeat.
moneyplus: will drop a line to Shares re interest; re publicity; re prize(s).
kus: ASC are benchmark share; thus allocation to team; allocation Z because sandrew would not be happy if not A!

Any other corrections?


Big kiss anyway for organising the fun:-)

blimey - its all fun and games on this thread!!!

SM

Many thanks for the update eric, good to see Seymour Pierce's buy note for the daddy share! could be a very good buying opp for asc..

Jules

Sorry for that. Not perfect after all! Would be awful to be perfect in an imperfect world! Will start taking gingko - if I remember! Jules has spoken and it will come to pass forthwith, which means next weekend. Moves you into closer order with those vieing for 3rd. Thanks for info - really excited about BTG's Bubble (may be second childhood!) I wonder if shareholders will get special terms?

partridge. Whoops, another one. 345.125p Up into the top half. Will correct next week.

Eric

Eric

EW... wouldn't be the same if you were too perfect. You'll do as you are:-)
The bubble is exciting and as soon as I get the info , I will post..
have a good one!!

Tuesday 22nd - Continuing my thoughts on the technicals of the Challenge stocks, feedback on any aspect welcome as per my earlier post 137. I am using Eric's post 122 as a reference although I note some changes are planned in holdings next week.

GWP: There was a bullish crossover of both the 10/20 day m.a. through the 50 day earlier this month. However we have the indicators currently suggesting a retest of the 130p resistance/support zone currently. If the stock can build a base here and go on to conquer the 200 day m.a. (137p) and then go up through the 140p level we can start looking to the heavens again. However the 200 day ma does look to be providing stern resistance and you will note it recently failed to break through.

MOB: The chart of this stock represents a classical up trend. Currently pausing for some breath although the Stochastic is starting to rise from oversold levels. I have transferred this stock into another charting package (ie I am not using the Money AM charting facility) and note it sits right on the middle of a rising uptrend at 263p with upper resistance at 302p and support at 225p.

GHH: I must confess to having a great interest in this stock having held it myself on and off for several years. It is clearly in breakout mode and attacking the glories of the 2000 - 01 era. Where next, well I think as the indicators all look a little overbought, (although this does not necessarily mean that the SP cannot continue to rise) some retracement will be helpful to build the chart. We are clearly looking to target 250p and beyond over the next month or so.

PCI: Well I thought this stock was doomed as I tipped it for the challenge, but it's next level of resistance is 14p - 16p so all is not lost... but we might have some retracement before then. As an out and out gamble it could still fly.

RSG: Strong resistance now at 520 - 540p zone. SP seems to be consolidating at these levels after a strong bounce from the lows of early January. There is an interesting Fibonacci level at 570p so worth watching. If you are Long it's a strong hold.

DFD: Still in a strong uptrend. The Stochastic is showing signs of bouncing back from oversold levels so although most indicators are neutral at the moment we could well see another push to 160p and beyond...clearly though market sentiment will drive this SP. The 50 day ma seems to be a good SL though for profit takers.

HCEG: There is a musical that springs to mind when looking at this stock...up up and away...a lovely chart with strong bounces from the 50 day ma. There is a suggestion that we are currently at overbought levels, but the chart suggests continued upward momentum. I will need to discuss with Eric target dates for this challenge because looking closely at this particular SP (there is of course nothing certian in this world) one might be so bold as to make some predictions!

THUS: I think it is fair to say we all now about the trials and tribulations of the teleco stocks. THUS needs to break through the 200 day ma (19.3p but still falling) before anyone can get excited. A slow and long recovery seems to be underway, but first it has to get through 17p.

IDS: The chart reflects a strong uptrend with 300p in sight. Currently bounced off resistance at 244p and the indicators are still pointing down so better BUY opportunities will present themselves.

BAG: A strong uptrend with 950p in sight. I used the 20 day (simple) ma as a good reflection of the SP.

CRDA: Currently retracing but 380p target looks on the cards. I see support currently at 306p, but would if it was me use the 50 day ma at 334p as a good SL area.

KCOM: You can see that the 50 - 80p zone has been in play for the last year or so. I would like to see it go through 70p and beyond before feeling that we were really climbing having said that though we have bounced well since November last with a glorious golden cross last month. Indicators suggest its currently overbought (although this does seem to be the case with most of the small caps at the moment).

TRT: Although we are currently retracing if the SP can break through recent peaks of 95p we are looking at 120p+.

BPG: In my opinion this SP is heading for 750p and beyond with or without the collapse of the Post Office as we know it today! A textbook chart bouncing off the lows around 528p last November.

ACE: I think we are in for some consolidation at this SP bounded by the 50 day ma. Presumably upcoming news flow will move the SP one way or another. All indicators are neutral but the SP still in the strong uptrend from last summer. Assuming the uptrend does not break down we are looking at 400p+.

Must move on now and plan to finish review by end of week. I do hope some of these comments are useful to holders. From my own selfish perspective it has brought a number of buying opportunities onto my radar so thanks to the nominees for that! I note Evil has read the recent Seymour P note on ASOS and is not impressed, he thinks anyone who is not short is an ASOS...so methinks it is time to buy some more. My only other observation is that many of these wonderful stocks do seem to be slightly overbought at these levels so we probably will need to see some tracement before another upwards surge...so keep your powder dry!

John

John

Thanks a million! Excellent post but I know there is a lot of effort behind it. Realls adds a whole new dimension to the value of this column. Will work through the situations myself. The ones that bounce out and which have been on my watch-list for some time are DFD, who have raised funds for expansion without these being reflected in sp, and HCEG who are on a real winner with Ebiox wich seems as effective as anything in fighting MRSA.

Team: it would be helpful to have anything on the fundamentals of shares you hold to read with the technical analysis.

Eric

Eric,

I support the request for some fundamentals on these stocks there are some real crackers in there! As it takes ages to trawl through the respective BB's, if promoters could add some notes about where they see events going over the next 6 months with their selections we will build an excellent investment BB between us. Incidentally, I forgot to mention that I thought Shares magazine came out with an interesting copy the other week...after we started this BB...talking about the next ASOS! Someone somewhere must be reading this!

John

Hi Eric,

great job by the way and thanks for taking time out to do this, i actually find shares quite boring (but hopefully profitable one day) and things like this really do add interest.

Im qiute new to all this and have quite lazy approach (mainly due to time) but would like to share how i do things. Sorry about my ignorance but could you give us a quick explanation of what you mean, 'fundamentals' and 'technical analysis' ive looked in my Alvin Hall book and cant find it.

Most of my shares a quite speculative, where i read as much evidence/background as i can and then make a judgement on whether there is a future for that product. Im not one for studying charts, who is buying or selling etc, moving averages and all that jargon though im sure it works for many.

Transense Technologies TRT for instance make Tyre Pressure Monitoring Systems and Surface Acoustic Wave sensor systems for the automotive industry (see more at www.transense.co.uk). It is one i noticed about 5 years ago and a lot of these systems are a legal requirement in every vehicle in the US if that happens in this country it could fly. The SP just keeps going up on very little news and trading, so hopefully being bought by those in the know. LIcense agreement not longed been signed with Honeywell and the promise of more. To me its a matter of when not if.

Will post more thoughts at a later date when i know more about TA and F cheeres bye for now.

John thank you for your excellent work it's a great help. have you looked at GMC it's really breaking out. cheers MP

Kivver: I'll leave that to our guru, johngtudor. Alternatively, drop me a message with some specific questions. Some readers would be bored here to have to look trough what they already know.

moneyplus: here you go again, keep finding you promoting GMC! Have had a look. Seems to say that they do the portal - does that mean they don't actually provide the poker game but make their money on these wretched advertising clicks which keep getting under your fingers! Seems they do tsome gaming themselves although not profitable for year to September. But they do seem to be pressing the right buttons and still quite low cap. althoug up 4 times in a month. Tempted to have a flutter!

Another request for players to give some fundamentals on their shares. Brief summary of what they do. Why hold? What is the potential? Key dates.

Eric

For myself ("U"), I have 50% Stanelco (SEO) which you, especially, Eric, already know about - and a lot more than myself!!!!!

My other 50% is Kryso (KYS) which is basically an exploration co based in Tajikistan "with assets in mining properties and management know-how which is rapidly reaching the stage of reporting feasibility details, beginning April/May 05 [unquote].....". Prior to recent listing it was approximately 3 times oversubscribed by the institutions having taken over where other companies left off due to lack of finance and technical capabilities in bygone years. Previous feasibilities studies and popular respected opinion suggests that the region is hugely rich in gold and precious ores. Kryso plans to explore gold, silver and these other ores and to continue exploring all year round without stoppage for weather conditions. So there you have it - my first ever "ramp" but I fully expect to win this ASOS Challenge in the Summer!

Cheers, Kus.

Hi Eric-I have gone through the GMC website and they have their fingers in so many pies it's difficult to put it all down! The website is well worth a good look through but basically they promote gambling on other websites for other companies such as betfair and william hill collecting fees per click. they also own and operate play casino.co.uk the no 1 site for punters each week according to hitwise the click monitors, they also own and operate instant casino and find poker.com. poker is set to be worth in excess of 1.2 billion dollars so they hope to capture a good slice of the market there are various other sites on their web page all to do with some form of gambling. They also own the recently acquired eyeconomy ltd. an online leading advertising and media company.
So I feel they don't have all their eggs in one basket rather like YOO. the sp has done well so may now take a breather until the results come out end of April I think. This is a very young company and could take off like ASC but maybe not for a while. I am excited about it but don't want to appear a ramper as I intend to hold for at least two years.
Golly this is hard work---time for bed I think and hope for a good day on the markets tomorrow. CFP and PXC are letting me down so far this year.
Stock Dog seems to find some interesting shares I am watching them, not bad for a woofer! cheers MP

Hi MP - Thanks for that. Mustn't do this compulsive internet stuff into the early hours - I suspect thats how you pick up all these hot leads though. Had a nibble at GMC this morning. Not everyone may pick up what a portal is - basically a site which has as its primary purpose to advertise for other sites and allow you to access them by a click on an icon. What I like about MP's summary is that they get paid for every click. I expect they cunningly direct attention to their own sites so they get the gamblers money as well. Sort of share that could become another NETeller. The odds on that are probably much better than a gamble and unlikely to lose your money.

As for stockdog, like many woofers he is always finding new ports of call! Suggest he comes to heel more and follows his mistress, could be you (!), to focus on the juciest opportunities. Hope you survive today's carnage.

Eric

Hi Eric--not happy today at all but it had to happen!! My night time ways are about to be seriously disrupted as I have to go in for a knee replacement tomorrow morning--I'm expecting serious withdrawal symptoms!! I have decided to leave my portfolio in the lap of the gods rather than sell out may be wrong but who knows! I can't leave my husband to look after it he loses his nerve and sells at the first dip! As he is a very early morning person 0530 up I've tried to persuade him into spreadbetting but he's much too cautious. I think he's expecting me to change my nocturnal ways after a hospital regime as we don't communicate for a fair bit of the day--he works for a living as well! Much more fun to play the markets I think. cheers MP

Hi mp. That's a lovely insight - hubs in bed early and up by 5.30 a.m.; wifey in bed late at 1.30 a.m. and up by I don't know when; unless you have kids to get to school? Hope the op. goes well; I hope it isn't arthritis. But they are so skilled these days and the technology is so good. From what I have seen of your portfolio, I wouldn't worry too much. Mind you could take a laptop in but that mightn't be good for the nurses pulses! But I would close the spreadbets; I wouldn't be too comfortable with my CFDs and suspect I would close half of them and put the money in the building account.

All the best, Eric

Thanks Eric- children all flown the nest and granddaughter due in June that's why I decided to get the knees fixed! Yes it is arthritis probably from sitting in front of the computer too much!

mp Sympathise but feel that the op will help the agility and give improved quality of life. Snap! grandchild due July although parents don't want to know sex - due on my birthday, 11th July which would be great! KJeep us posted on progress. Eric