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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Douggie - 27 Jun 2005 17:55 - 145 of 1009

and still the sp don't rise..............;o/ grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.........

Fred1new - 27 Jun 2005 18:34 - 146 of 1009

DOUGGIE. Stop grumbling. I have it down for .5p up to-day. and 1p to-morrow.

Fred1new - 27 Jun 2005 18:48 - 147 of 1009

Douggie I take it back you can grumble. Comdirect called it up while MM static. One compensation Buys seem to outway Sells. Up 1p to-morrow. But it is slow.

m0dulus - 28 Jun 2005 11:54 - 148 of 1009

whats going on with the price?

parveen1 - 28 Jun 2005 11:56 - 149 of 1009

100k of sells falls nearly 1p

that sucks

skyhigh - 28 Jun 2005 12:04 - 150 of 1009

Pants ! isn't it ? still... it will resume it's upward momentum over the next week or two.... imo

capetown - 28 Jun 2005 12:18 - 151 of 1009

Have goldman increased or decreased their holding?

pachandl - 28 Jun 2005 12:41 - 152 of 1009

cape - I assumed an increase because the rns gives the response "not informed" as regards purchases, but "N/A" as regards sells.

capetown - 28 Jun 2005 12:44 - 153 of 1009

pachandi,thats what i assumed so why the fall in share price?,dont get it.but am sure its on a slow upward trend.

thx

pachandl - 28 Jun 2005 12:45 - 154 of 1009

GS increased stake from 5.25 (9th March 05) to 6.98%.

parveen1 - 28 Jun 2005 12:48 - 155 of 1009

very good news

barclays + goldmans now own around 20% of the shares


capetown - 28 Jun 2005 13:01 - 156 of 1009

Its fantastic news,thats why i can t belive share price did not stay at least where it was as opposed to down .50

parveen1 - 28 Jun 2005 13:12 - 157 of 1009

patience

be very patient.

takeover bid !!!!

thats my take on it

DYOR

Fundamentalist - 28 Jun 2005 13:19 - 158 of 1009

Parveen

just playing devils advocate, 2 instis hold 17%ish (one sixth) of the company now - this is still a very low level of institutional support and a large amount of shares are in retail investors hands (many with short term instincts) - why does this lead you to think a takeover is brewing?

Also, who would actually purchase RTD - the big issue for any purchaser is that there are 2 distinct sides to the business so if someone were to look to a takeover, they would then have to sell off the fuel card business once completed - this is probably enough to deter most would be suitors.

If history is followed, a trading update MAY appear either friday or early next week - for the bullish maybe they are trying to shake some shares out in advance.

Fred1new - 28 Jun 2005 14:57 - 159 of 1009

From memory they have spun one subsid. company out from the time of their original floated. I may be wrong but I think it was "Universe" which was into security in a different way. It could be thinking of doing so again.

pachandl - 28 Jun 2005 15:09 - 160 of 1009

Fund - I agree that we must see an increased % in institutional holdings before the current, rather nonsensical, sp movements cease.

Fred - I am still remain sceptical of any spin-off. The petrol bsuiness remains a cash-cow and there are still opportunities to set up a similar business in Eastern Europe and/or parts of the Far East (RTD have the expertise). A spin-off would increase short-term capital for the acquisition of other businesses but long-term it smacks of the over-specialisation of a company like Marconi who destroyed shareholder value by putting all their eggs in one basket (imho).

Fundamentalist - 28 Jun 2005 15:10 - 161 of 1009

Fred

spot on - it was Universe Group who were spun out from the old Card Clear days. Interestingly they popped up on my radar recently having won a new contract

overgrowth - 28 Jun 2005 15:54 - 162 of 1009

Amazing - if Goldman Sachs had just added a similar percentage to their holding in an oil company the price would be up 30%+ today rather than down !

It seems as though the MMs are happy to annoy retail investors and traders to the extent that they believe that whatever good news comes from RTD, the price will remain static or even drop slightly - so all the RI's dutifully sell and the institutions pick up another huge tranche of shares at bargain prices.

Something has got to give here very soon - roll on that trading update and 40p next stop.

pachandl - 28 Jun 2005 16:21 - 163 of 1009

OG - agreed but someone IS selling RTD - 300k just gone through.

Fred1new - 28 Jun 2005 16:44 - 164 of 1009

That is only about 100.000. Not a lot.
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