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THE SUNDAY MAIL
Midas: Lloyds cash call is a gamble on the economy
Last week, Lloyds Banking Group asked its shareholders, including 2.8 million small investors, to put their hands in their pockets and give it a total of 13.5 billion as part of a massive capital raising exercise.
After the State bailouts it is difficult to believe that the board, led by chief executive Eric Daniels, has the nerve.
But this time, it says, is different. This cash raising will sort the company out for good and set it on a path to future profitability.
It would be easy to dismiss the board's claims out of hand were it not for the possibility that this time it might be right.
As a High Street bank with a huge exposure to the UK mortgage market, Lloyds is an investment in our economic recovery. A second wave of recession and Lloyds will plunge. A sharp bounce and it will surge.
Sadly, there is little agreement among economists about whether we are on the road to sustained recovery or witnessing a shallow bounce caused by the Government's and the Bank of England's massive economic stimulus package. Unemployment is still rising and everyone apart from estate agents is warning that house prices will start to drop again in 2010.
We are unlikely to see a repeat of the sudden financial storm that broke in 2008, but an acute crisis is not the only thing to worry about. A prolonged period of stagnation, with stubbornly high unemployment and low or zero growth could, by slow erosion, have the same effect as a financial tsunami.
There are also the risks involved in merging HBOS, which Lloyds bought at the start of this year. Experience shows that mergers are just as likely to destroy wealth as to create it. And finally, State aid constraints mean there will be no dividend until at least 2011.
But what about the possible rewards? Most directly, Lloyds expects to save 1.5 billion a year by next year through combining with HBOS and is already well on target to hit that figure. Daniels has staked his reputation on the success of this merger, which is an added incentive to make it work.
Without doubt, the combination of Lloyds and HBOS has created a banking behemoth. The European Commission forced some disposals and constraints on operations, but the business it has been left with is still a powerhouse in current accounts, mortgages, savings and personal loans. It will have 35 million retail customers and own the Lloyds, Halifax, Clerical Medical and Scottish Widows brands. In the event of a decent economic recovery, it will fly.
Broker Morgan Stanley predicts pre-tax profits for Lloyds of about
7.7 billion in 2012. Earnings per share would be 8p. Even at a very modest valuation of just nine times earnings, Lloyds shares would be worth more than 70p, or roughly twice what investors are being asked to pay in the rights issue.
Midas verdict: The option to buy shares at a discount to the market price is extremely tempting. If the economy turns upwards and Lloyds can pull off a successful merger of operations with those of HBOS, then 37p looks like an extremely good deal. But the economic outlook remains uncertain and banks have not proved themselves the most reliable guides to their own financial stability.
Fortunately a rights issue gives investors a way to increase their investment and so benefit from the recovery without dipping into their own pockets. Sell some of your rights entitlement and use the proceeds to buy the rest. Or in Cityspeak, swallow your tail.
The three options available to investors
Lloyds Banking Group's cash call aims to raise 13.5 billion by issuing about 36 billion new shares. Shareholders may buy 1.34 of these new shares at 37p each for every share they already hold.
Issuing this many shares and raising this much cash has a dramatic effect on the bank's share price and it is important for shareholders to grasp what the changes in market price mean and what their options are.
Following last week's shareholder vote in favour of the plan, the Lloyds share price went ex-rights.
This means that the market price has been adjusted to take account of the new shares being issued and the lower price at which they are being offered.
The result is that Lloyds shares were repriced on Friday and closed at 58.6p.
The average investor holds 740 shares. With the rights issue offering 1.34 shares at 37p for each existing share, that works out as the right to buy 992 new shares at a total cost of 367.
That is the first option and anyone wanting to take up the offer must reply to Lloyds by December 11.
Yet any investor who does not want to take up the offer can still benefit - by doing nothing.
The rights to the new shares have a value called the nil-paid price. This amounts to the market price of the shares minus the cost of buying them. Based on Friday's closing price of 58.6p, those nil paid rights are worth 21.6p each.
If you do nothing, the shares available to you will be sold to someone else, but you will be paid for the value of those rights.
For the average small investor with an entitlement to 992 shares, that would amount to about 214 at Friday's close.
But there is a third option. Investors can choose to sell some of their entitlement and use the cash raised to take up the rest of the offer, meaning you get to buy some of the new shares without having to spend anything.
The exact proportions cannot be determined until the offer closes and the final market value of the rights is known. But again using today's market price we can sketch
Based on Friday's closing price, selling 626 of the average rights allowance of 992 shares would cover the cost of buying the other 366, which at 58.6p each would also be worth about 214.
This same process can be used however big or small your shareholding and the final amounts will depend on the market performance of Lloyds shares between now and the offer deadline.
This third option is known as a 'cashless take-up', or in the inimitable jargon of the City, 'tail-swallowing'.
Shareholders should consult their stockbroker in plenty of time for the December 11 deadline.
Lloyds rights issue: What the experts say
Philip Scott, This is Money -- 30 November 2009, 2:24pm
Lloyds Banking Group has revealed the details of its massive 13.5bn cash call on 24 November. We round up views from the experts (first published on the 24th) and will add further opinions as we get them)...
Lloyds is offering 1.34 new shares for every existing share owned at a price of 37p each: a 60% discount to last night's closing price and a 38.6% discount to the 'ex-rights price' of 60.5-61.0p, which the shares are expected to settle at after the issue has taken place.
Lloyds rights issue: How does it work and is it worth taking up?
In terms of the general market view towards Lloyds, sentiment has improved slightly over recent weeks and currently the stockbroker and analyst general consensus is that the shares are a 'strong hold'.
We asked some stockbroking and investment banking experts what they thought of the offer.
Jupiter Financial Opportunities fund manager, Philip Gibbs
Financials guru and manager of the Jupiter Financial Opportunities fund, Philip Gibbs, says he 'probably will invest' in the Lloyds rights issue. He adds: 'We have certainly been partaking in many of the rights issues, whether its BNP, Norway's DnB Nor, SociGale or Lloyds,' he says. 'I'm not sure I view it as a matter of supporting companies, but more as a question of whether we are prepared to increase our holdings, in the light of what we think of the prospects and the valuations.'
Jim Stride, head of UK equities, at Axa Investment Managers
Stride says: 'This is a recovey play. If the UK economy recovers, then clearly Lloyds, which is so UK focused, is extremely well positioned to benefit.'
Stride points out that generally all rights issues this year had a strong take up of some 90% plus and that he does not anticipate the Lloyds bid to be any different, however he adds: 'With the rights issue so near to Christmas, some private shareholders may shy away but even so, we expect the take-up to be strong.'
David Buik of BGC Partners
Expert opinion: David Buik of BGC PartnersThe veteran stockbroker says: 'For Lloyds this is a much better alternative of having to pay 15bn for the APS, which as far as it's concerned, is a no-go area.'
'If the fundraiser is a success, it will save Lloyds 480m a year in dividend payments on the shares owned by the Treasury and brings it closer to being able to re-introduce a dividend payment for ordinary shareholders.
'For those who bought into Lloyds cheaply, this deal looks to offer value and I think such shareholders will probably go for it.
'But at the same time, for those who bought shares pre-crisis at say 3-4 levels, while they may be furious, there is little point selling out, as they would merely be cutting off their nose to spite their face by crystallising losses.'.
Keith Bowman of Hargreaves Lansdown
'I believe a lot of shareholders will look to subscribe, given the discount.'
'Following the merger with HBOS, there are certainly opportunities over the longer term to capitalise on the vast presence the group has in the savings and mortgage markets, along with the cost synergies this may bring says Bowman but he notes the firm is very UK-orientated - unlike say HSBC which has a huge global presence.
'This very reliance on the strength and prospects for the UK economy the group is nowhere near as geographically diversified as many of its rivals could provide a drag as the economy is likely to stutter for some time to come. Meanwhile, for income investors, there is still little prospect of a dividend payment in the foreseeable future.'
Graham Spooner of The Share Centre
He urges that investors need to remember that this cash-call is a long-term recovery play on the UK economy, especially given Lloyds' UK-focused business.
'For investors who believe that the UK is out of the worst of the crisis and on the repair, then they may see opportunity here. But the UK has been one of the laggards in the global economic recovery.
'Despite the discount there is no quick profit to be made. Shareholders should consider taking up the offer of 37p if they can afford it, to avoid the risk of having their holdings significantly diluted. The 36.5bn shares being created will take up 57.3% of Lloyds' enlarged share capital.
'However, if shareholders cannot afford the rights issue then we advise them to sell the shares and buy back after Friday 27 November. This way they can avoid subscribing to the rights issue terms and be fully aware of their exposure to the company.
Mark Costar at JO Hambro Capital Management
The fund manager told Citywire last week that he regarded Lloyds as a stronger investment play than Barclays.
He said: 'The market has failed to focus on the improvement in its quality of earnings. After the turmoil, the barriers to entry in the banking sector are significant higher and the competitive threat to the likes of Lloyds is lower.
'Additionally, the banks' leverage position is significantly lower, also improving the quality of earnings. All of the surplus capital generated will compound down to the investor. This is a very powerful circle.'