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2004 Goldfinger Stock Picks Thread (GOLD)     

goldfinger - 04 Jan 2004 00:32

Closed the last thread as it was getting top heavy and cluttered. Brought out the new thread showing carry over of stocks held from year 2003 and ones I will following this year with interest.

Please remember I am by norm a long term value investor ( and invest in tranches ) but now and again may pick some trading stocks which need to be purchased on the same day I invest in them, or the opportunity to profit may be lost. Notice will be given.

Always please DYOR and remember you are always responsible for your buying and selling timing, and actions. I do own other stocks but I have not covered them on this board and therefore dont feel its right to list them here unless I do a reco on them.

Heres the list.

Telecolm Plus Results recently were excelent and the company is just growing and growing. Next target FTSE 250.

Bema Gold A little gem of a gold miner and has surged on the back of the increasing POG, should be a very long term banker.

Caldwell Investments Nothing Spectacular here but still up on buy price. If its good enough for Jim Slater and Evil Knievil, its good enough for me.

African Eagle A play on the ever increasing POG, but this time an explorer, and hopefully good news out very soon.

Just Car Clinics A long term hold that has fought back in the market just recently. Trading was a tad dissapointing late summer, but there are whispers about everything is back on track.

Bioprogress Hoping this one is going to be a long term Bio hold and has some big names like Mike Walters tipping it. A new contract win is imminent.

Zoo Digital Another long term hold which is likely to make its maiden profit in the very near future. I see this as a take out or take over candidate based on its, DVD Extra Technology.

Healthcare Enterprise Group A small company with a big future. As acquires a couple of very well know companys in the Health Care Business and has some very big backers.

Datacash One of the World Leaders in its software security field for online payment processing, also now branching out into other areas of security for credit cards and store cards.

Pipex Communications Fantastic and proven management team have acquired the bit parts to put together a Telecolms network of the highest order. Another long term hold.

I D Data A play on the new security chip credit cards and store cards. Awaiting big orders from Banks from all over the Globe.

NEW BUYS

T T Electronics A recovery play on the world car manufacturing and mobile phone industries.

Armour Group, a company that again is in the in car entertainment market and sells all the leads and plugs that are needed for the electronics to work. Also has an in house, audio electronics division.

Service Powerthe recognised market leader in artificial intelligence based field service scheduling applications.

Patient Line Market-leading pioneer of bedside communication and entertainment services within the NHS healthcare sector. Offer a comprehensive solution partnering Trusts in delivering digital TV, telephone, free 24hr radio, internet, email and information services direct to bedside.

Scott Tod Straight swap with Cardpoint, basicaly in the same business, but this has further growth, much further growth left in it.

Mediwatch Exciting little Bio/health care company ready to break into the US market.

Imagination Technologies Silicoln chip maker. Rumoured to be the "New ARM"

Sanctuary Group Music company with divisions in Concerts, artists and Media.

2 Ergo Mobile communications company with cutting edge technology across all platforms.

CMS Webview Commodity software and Exchange software developer and servicer.

Zincox A play on the growing infrastructure of the newest industrial economy in the World China.

Anglo Pacific A coal miner who again I have invested in because of rising prices and incresed demand from China for coking coal and other metals.

London @ Associates Properties A fast rising NAV well above the stock price attracted me to this one, investing in large shopping centres.



SELLS

Top sliced Cardpoint 21/1/2004
also TT electronics and Datacash.

Top sliced ZOO 19/2/2004

Top sliced Zoo and JCR 29/02/2004

Top sliced JCR and ZOO plus some of my earlier stock
in BPRG at 50p and 60p. Wc March 1st

Top sliced Bema, Caldwell, JCR Zoo and Armour week ending, 12/03/2003.

Top sliced ID DATA, Telspec, Patient line, ZOO, Bema, JCR, Caldwell, Service power, on 28th and 29th of March.

Incite Holdings, sold 09/01/2004

Cardpoint, sold 30/01/2004

Centurion Electronics sold 12/2/2004

Avocett Miningsold 2/03/2004

Telspec sold after a few days of profit taking on 31/3/2004




I will be adding new recommendations to this list throughout the year, and at the moment I feel its a stock pickers market and one where value stocks with sound balance sheets will outperform. I cant really see that we will get the momentum opportunities we got in the last year from april to August and therefore as usual PATIENCE will be required.

Please feel free to make comments on the above list adding your thoughts and I wish everyone a prosperous year on the markets.

Regards Goldfinger.




Bones - 07 Feb 2004 18:07 - 146 of 304

BTW Goldfinger, the last post was not a dig at you. I have picked up companies to research myself from your threads (eg Datacash). I do think though that there are a lot of "investors" who treat journalists as demi-gods even though some don't bother to do much research. People have to do more of their own digging if they want to make money long-term. The journos won't tell them when to sell!

Doshmaker - 07 Feb 2004 20:34 - 147 of 304

Anybody think Ramco (ROS) is worth a punt, big fall recently on news seems a massive overreaction. I bought in last Friday. Although a risk massive upside is potentially there short/medium and long term. The apparent experts were tipping this a short time ago at a price Of 4 plus with a target of 7 to 8. Current price - 1.20ish. Any views - cheers.

I also bought into Anite Group on Friday at 55p, lots of big buys for this share yesterday. Also MM's seem extremely keen to obtain these in large amounts, possibly news approaching. Again views appreciated.

zscrooge - 07 Feb 2004 20:59 - 148 of 304

Cheers GF.

Hmmm. MDW, CEN or RDN Monday?

PXC, RTD, XTL already from Jun 03.

goldfinger - 07 Feb 2004 23:24 - 149 of 304

Bones no problem mate. Im not like that unless we get a deliberate spoiler on the thread or site. BPRG, more to come as you say, and the newspaper financial press well????????? best thing they could do is keep the price down for me as I buy in cheap lol, dont want to put them off.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 08 Feb 2004 01:46 - 150 of 304

Just been looking at some of my holdings waiting for the plane to bring me back to manchester. Have to say Patientline sticks out head and shoulders on a lot due to its future potential. What a cracker this looks. The profits when they come on stream will be excellent. Just done a few figures but it not due to break into a net profit for a while yet, but amazing, just amazing the potential revenues from its bed side terminals. Breathtaking. right Im off.

cheers Gf.

nematode - 08 Feb 2004 12:54 - 151 of 304

GF,looks like the next deal or RNS is not far away for BPRG Judging from previous RNS's.This bodes well for this week.Out of curiousity,any idea how long to the OTC deal?Must be very close.

Bones - 08 Feb 2004 14:12 - 152 of 304

Nematode - I read a quote from the BPRG CEO that the FMC deal was very complicated, hence the delay in announcing it. The inference was that the next deal (and more) is a bit more straightforward.

So, I am hoping for the OTC deal to emerge in the next week or two. It will be a big name so I hope they can say who. It is for exclusive use of another of BPRG's technologies covering the USA and the EU only. It entails the OTC company to build a film plant in the USA which will then also be availble to service BPRG's other US customers. BPRG have already said they are talking big numbers (in the RNS in November)

This leaves deals for non-USA/EU territories for that same technology to be done. It leaves the other two technologies to be commercialised. There is also ostomy which is already licenced to Bristol Myers Squibb and the product should roll this year.

All exciting because you have seen what "completed deal" and a big name and figures does to the share price and stirs the newspapers into action.

The good thing is the share price often moves slowly at first after the announcement. After FMC, you could have picked up BPRG in the early 80p area for a good couple of hours after the open (up only a few pence). You don't have to risk all on the hope of something. You can wait for the announcement and move quickly on the open!

But, as always, Do Your Own Research!

McPaulass - 09 Feb 2004 09:07 - 153 of 304

Hope you had an enjoyable break Goldfinger and welcome back. I have bought into Mediwatch and am now been looking into a share called Bioprojects. BIP. Would be grateful for any thoughts you have on this one when you have the time. Many thanks. McPaulass.

nematode - 09 Feb 2004 18:23 - 154 of 304

Welcome back from hols but where r u GF???Cospicuous by your absence!!!Need you to spread the gospel on the BPRG thread.

goldfinger - 09 Feb 2004 23:38 - 155 of 304

Sorry guys this foreign ale and my, how can I put it nicely she may look in, girlfreind just shag me out on holiday. Might have to look at the old viagra.

Normal service resumed in the morning.

PS, fantastic day on the market, we really took them apart. More to come aswell, Bioprogress well its going to be massive, yup just massive, went round all the brokers this morning buying, and will do tommorow aswell.

cheers GF

nematode - 10 Feb 2004 08:37 - 156 of 304

Looks like you came back as dried as a prune GF.

BPRG,obviously short -term volatility will be caused by traders unless RNS comes out then I'm sure that will offset proceddings.The OTC deal must be well overdue by now???

goldfinger - 10 Feb 2004 12:56 - 157 of 304

Nematode its certainly going ahead. Theres no ifs and buts as Mr Hind as commented.

cheers GF.

CAT - 10 Feb 2004 13:11 - 158 of 304

added to new long LNB at 72 - thanks for this Slater.

philj66 - 10 Feb 2004 16:00 - 159 of 304

GF I presume you have seen this appraisal from AMreview its a brief summary of the co so far if anyone is interested. It is not on the other thread either
Report updated: 28th January 2004
As the original name implied, Mediwatch - once Prostcare - had had the objective of funding projects for the diagnosis and treatment of prostate diseases, objectives which have commercial ends of course. To further this end it acquired Karim Ltd., in April 2000. 7.2 million shares were issued in consideration; a private placing raised 1.6 million at 50p per share; admission to AIM, and a 360,000, 60p, placing followed, after which the shares did quite well for a bit. The eponymous Karim was named for Mr. Omer Karim, a consultant urological surgeon at Heatherwood and Wexham Park NHS Trusts. A distinguished and respected international specialist, as was his co-director, Mr. Mark Emberton, (a senior oncology lecturer at University College London) there was a profound corporate interest in novel applications for computing power to assist in their specialist field. The business strategy was to create a facility for walk-in/walk out units as part of a diagnostic initiative; to create interest in the disease through a website; and to fund lines of research. As with all such enterprises, the motivation is impeccable and the objective praiseworthy. But whereas although such businesses are generally rooted in science, even if investment is an act of faith, Prostcare was more hard-edged, depending as it did upon the attraction of men in sufficient numbers, men anxious to obtain access to the diagnostic services provided. A strong threat to the success of the venture of course was any future availability of free prostrate cancer screening on the National Health Service. However there was an abrupt change of emphasis as the shares were suspended on the first day of September 2000, to allow shareholders to vote on the planned acquisition of MediWatch. A crunching 10 million shares were issued to the vendor of the company (a then value of 8 million). Mediwatch, which makes medical diagnostic equipment in the same urological area, had just crept into profit to December 1999. Consummation of the deal saw the group change its name to Mediwatch, and Mr.Philip Stimpson take the corporate helm as Chief Executive. A private placing had raised 200,000 in November 2000, partly from the illustrious figure of Lord Hanson. And a February 2001 statement announced the expected signing of an agreement for the supply of portable bladder scanners to a large US medical care company. Later the same month the interim figures for the seven-month period to 29th October 2000 showed a 210,000 operating loss, but this before the Mediwatch reversal. As time passed, and the shares settled gently downwards towards their offer price and well beyond, the need for a further capital injection became more palpable, and the company adopted a more recognisable mien, medical device company; even if the first diagnostic unit opening was put only on hold. For the record the company lost 830,000 in its first year of operations, (to March 2001) a figure which included 250,000 for the amortisation of goodwill. 1.2 million having been raised at 40p in September 2001, the company, the shares sagging horribly afresh, reported a 600,000 operating loss for the six-month period to October 2001, not a good headline figure even if about 30% of it came from goodwill amortisation. Turnover had amounted to 150,000, and generalities apart, the most concrete element in the investment case was an initial order for the portable bladder scanner, which was expected to assist a targeted sales increase in the second half of the year. By June 2002 572,000 more fruits of a 10p placing, strengthened the balance sheet. Despite market conditions which are dead foul, the shares were exhibiting some resilience, an indication that Mr. Stimpson had his followers - and followers expecting him to deliver. Well he didn't, recording a 2 million loss to April 2002, as, blaming a lack of capital, flying about every flag of corporate distress known - except the final one - yet - he strips out every element of cost and development expenditure prays for a quick take up of the instrument to bring him succour. The six-month period to October 2002 showed sales of 800,000 serve only to engender a 450,000 pre-goodwill amortisation operating loss, and the company, striving to complete its initial order and hoping for more of course, is planning to raise more sorely-needed capital. A pipe-opener to the latter could well be a February 2003 announcement that a previously announced initial distribution contract - it is with CR Bard, a worldwide leader in the urological field - has gone well enough to allow a five-year agreement to be entered into - one which covers the United Kingdom, France, Benelux and Scandinavia. Sales could - note that last word - run at close to 1 million a year. This was followed by a 750,000 placing at 2.5p per share, and a general financial clean up; there were also three new faces in the boardroom. 250,000 into the coffers at 2.5p followed in April 2003 - 100,000 more the next month at the same price. Come October and the full-year figures to April 2003 were eventually produced; sales three times up on those of 2002, at 1.5 million; but as the aforesaid clear-out included a 4.7 million goodwill write-off, there was a 5.5 million loss, a figure which indicated a pretty serious core deficit nonetheless. But a spreading distribution network abroad reassures in part, even if one wonders at the indifferent UK start to the present financial year to which the report felt it necessary to draw attention. Meanwhile the R&D spend continues as does the hopes vested in additional product - in 2004 there will be a "one-stop" device to be marketed. In January 2004 FDA approval for the portable device was obtained. A few days later and the six-month figures to October 2003 revealed; the distortions caused, it was said, by a restructured sales initiative being the real reason for the 50% fall in turnover, to 400,000; and by extention the 600,000 loss. With just 400,000 in the bank, the opened doors to the markets had surely better see some traffic soon.




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jfletendre - 10 Feb 2004 18:43 - 160 of 304

Hi GF -
Also regarding MDW - I wanted to input very relevant info and a poster's analysis from another website for your perusal, hope this is not inappropriate -what do you think of following.....
Regards
Anna

all posts from today
"Estimated annual turnover in US alone of $20m. Plus signing new distrubution deals for new products to other countries - news that will be coming in the same RNS. So add 50% for other turnover worldwide and thats $30m turnover. Say thats approx 17m (sterling) turnover potential for 04/05. Mkt cap of growth companise typically three times sales (its a far better guide than PE ratios for this sort of high growth stock). So that three times sales = fair value mkt cap of 3 x 17m = 51m mkt cap is fair value. Its now at a tiddly mkt cap of 10m ish !!! Multiple from here of 5 times the share price = genuine fair value mkt cap.

Plus : The bladder scanner is getting distrubuted worldwide in the same RNS so annual turnover estimate of $30m only adds in $10m from outside the US, which is very conservative.

I forgot to mention the fact that Mediwatch has operated on a profit margin of 32% year in, year out and again this past year. And a 32% margin, is, in fact, the dogs bollocks, so to speak.

(US $20m estimate widely available in AFX announcements from MDW - its a verifiable figure).


"Institute report - This company (MDW) is involved with a study that will inform future policy on screening for prostate cancer into a national programme. The study will take many years BUT results as they appear will be acted on earlier than the completed study. The bladder is the most likely area to develop cancer caused by radiation from X-rays ( The Lancet 2004) and ways to aviod this by new types of machinary is crucial. Any new ways to manage men with screen - detection of this disease will be supported by large sums of money."








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goldfinger - 10 Feb 2004 20:51 - 161 of 304

Thanks guys some excelent information there in the two last posts, nice to see it up over 35% in the last few days aswell. Looking forward to this distribution deal coming through. Watch out for scott tod results in the morning. And please dont forget BPRG.

Its amazing I come back from spain and immediatly catch a stinker of a cold.

Will do my best to keep posting but feel rotten at the moment. My appologies for not repling to questions.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 11 Feb 2004 23:09 - 162 of 304

Nice to see CUC making a recovery. Think its had a rough deal.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 12 Feb 2004 11:39 - 163 of 304

Well sold what I had left of CUC, its made me a nice profit and may re- enter after the next set of results. It just doesnt seem to be able to throw off the tradgedy of losing its excelent CEO.

cheers GF.

vasey - 12 Feb 2004 14:21 - 164 of 304

GF, next set of figures from CUC should be March, so not long to wait. They confirm they are 'in line with expectations' and those expectations were huge. Indeed I would swear a smile escaped Amanda's lips when we tried to probe any details..... She said I shouldn't read anything into the fact she smiled when quizzed about the figures, but ...... she didn't look in the least bit worried to me.

goldfinger - 12 Feb 2004 23:32 - 165 of 304

Cheers Vasey, I havent written it off by any means, Im just getting fed up of these newspaper bods giving it mark downs.

No doubt I will be back in on next results as it was one of my top three for the year.

cheers GF.
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