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Mediwatch - Watch them rocket in 2005 !!! (MDW)     

overgrowth - 12 May 2005 22:21

Mediwatch is a small company destined to become a much bigger fish by the time this year is out. Mediwatch are already a market leader in urological medical diagnostics equipement and are currently exporting their products throughout the UK, Canada, Europe, India and Japan. That doesn't leave much of the globe left for them to capture - until you remember the good ol' US and China. These are the two massive markets which are destined to be added to MDW's export client portfolio by the end of 2005.

The company is currently heavily undervalued. This is probably because Mediwatch's speciality is not a very glamourous business to be in as their equipment is used extensively to diagnose prostate cancer in men and other nasty urological conditions affecting both men and women. However, don't let that put you off investing in these guys. This is big business and is growing at an exponential rate as more and more people globally become health-aware as they get older.

Mediwatch normally supply their products through to global markets via distribution agreements. They already have the best of distribution partners in the well known US medical distributor CR Bard who supply Canada and Europe and GE Medical who supply Japan. The UK business is handled by Mediwatch's own dedicated sales team.

US FDA approval was gained for MDW's products at the start of last year, however a whole year of US legal wrangling meant that they were unable to seek a suitable partner for the crucial distribution agreement until the start of this year. This distribution agreement is expected by the board to have a "significant effect" on the share price so they are reluctant to give any clues as to when it will be signed, sealed and delivered. The general consensus is that this US distribution agreement will be announced in July/August. In China and Hong Kong, MDW have done things the other way round. They have set up distribution agreements with major Asian medical equipment distributors and have stock already out there waiting to sell into the markets - all they are waiting for is SDA approval (which is a "rubber stamp") from the Chinese authorities - this can take anything up to 12 months to come through and MDW applied during Autumn 2004 - so even more good news coming soon this year. Epidemiological data from British Association of Urology conference last year: On average 30-45% of all men between the age of 50 and 70 have at least one PSA test per year in the US / Italy / Australia.

If that's not enough to convince you to invest a few hard earned coppers in MDW, they are also developing a PSA stick test product (PSAWatch) which is revolutionary and causing some excitement in medical circles. This product can also be adapted (at very low cost) for a whole spectrum of medical disciplines from Cardiology to Veterinary Practice! This product is likely to be released in the next few weeks. Philip Stimpson the CEO has said that this product is going to be their "gold mine" - I'm sure it will prove to be ours too.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=MDW&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=MDW&Si

ptholden - 08 Jun 2005 19:15 - 146 of 1497

jnknill

many thabnks but, all OG's work, the man is a star when it comes to creating a thread and sensible comment, haven't got a clue myself!

From a TA perspective th SP looks over done at the moment, in particular RSI. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, but a cooling off period prior to the news may be expected. Good opportunity for the MMs to shake a few out of the tree, will be interesting to see if they succeed. Me, I think I shall hang onto mine!

pth

jnknill - 08 Jun 2005 19:32 - 147 of 1497

pth, Interesting your view on the shares although as OG suggests the MM,s are seemingly short of stock hence it,s either "shake" or carry on "blue". I think they will, sometime/sometimes tomorrow try "shaking" but like you, mine are sticking. I know there is nothing definite on Medtronic but on looking they were born in 1949, have an Executive Board of 13 males & 1 female(?) and revenue in 2004 was 9 billion dollars! Big do you think? Rgds.

petralva - 08 Jun 2005 19:49 - 148 of 1497

lets hope a mention is forth coming tomorrow in the rags.....we need new investors on the stairway to heaven.....

ptholden - 08 Jun 2005 19:53 - 149 of 1497

jnknill

OG is right concerning the shortage of stock. We have been watching this very closely for a few weeks and relatively small transactions have shifted the SP considerably. Treeshake? I think there will be. Moving the Bid up hasn't so far produced any great results, so perhaps dropping it may. There are many investors who do not subsribe to BBs and will not be aware of what is possibly going on and will be 'stampeded' into selling.

As far as Medtronic are concerned, we have no real idea of what discussions are ongoing, but it sounds like a company transforming deal to me for MDW, assuming it comes off. Obviously others think so, otherwise we would not have seen a RNS today. Whoever paid 1p over the Offer last week certainly thinks the deal is done. Even if the Medtronic deal comes to naught, there is still plenty of good news to come, this is the (possible) icing on the cake! Need to do some more research methinks.

pth

smudge1004 - 08 Jun 2005 20:17 - 150 of 1497


bit of gen on medtronic from bloomberg

Medtronic Annual Revenues Exceed $10 Billion on Record Fourth-
Quarter Revenues of $2.78 Billion; Implantable Defibrillators, Spinal Products and Insulin Pumps Fuel Growth

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 24, 2005 Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT):

-- Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) Revenues of $682

million in the Quarter Increases Medtronic Worldwide ICD

Market Share to 50 Percent

-- Spinal Business Continues Growth While Acquiring Key

Intellectual Property Portfolio and Settling Outstanding

Litigation

-- FY05 Earnings Per Share, Before Special Charges, Meet

Consensus Estimate

Medtronic, Inc. (NYSE:MDT) today announced record revenues for its fiscal year and fourth quarter ending April 29, 2005.

Medtronic recorded fiscal year revenues of $10.055 billion compared to $9.087 billion generated in fiscal 2004. Reflecting the weaker dollar, foreign currency translation had a positive impact on annual revenues of $166 million compared to last year. Before special charges, net earnings for the fiscal year were $2.271 billion or $1.86 per diluted share. Full-year actual earnings were $1.804 billion or $1.48 per diluted share.

Fiscal fourth quarter revenues rose to $2.778 billion from the $2.665 billion reported in the fourth quarter one year ago. Foreign currency translation had a positive impact on quarterly revenue of $32 million compared to the fourth fiscal quarter of last year. Excluding special charges taken in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2005, net earnings were $645 million or $0.53 per diluted share. Actual quarterly net earnings were $194 million, or $0.16 per diluted share.

"Medtronic concluded fiscal year 2005 with strong operating performance in our two largest product lines, ICDs and Spinal products, that collectively represent over 42 percent of current quarter revenues," said Art Collins, chairman and chief executive officer of Medtronic. "Diabetes products also closed out the year on a favorable note and Medtronic's annual revenues exceeded $10 billion for the first time in the company's history."

"In addition to recording market share gains in a number of key businesses, several significant clinical trials such as the CARE-HF heart failure study were successfully completed," Collins added. "Also, a long-standing legal dispute in our Spinal business was concluded with the acquisition of a broad portfolio of spine-related intellectual property in May 2005. We enter fiscal year 2006 with good momentum, and I look forward to a number of new product launches that should help support continued strong growth across our business."


medtronics market cap is 64 billion, based on 10 billion t/0

andysmith - 08 Jun 2005 22:08 - 151 of 1497

If this is in the bag, thank God I topped up last week!!
One question, if there is a huge deal with Medtronic, guesses to sp, realistic?

banjomick - 08 Jun 2005 22:39 - 152 of 1497

well for what it is worth my 'guess'would be around 10-15p for the next few weeks and once or if a deal with Medtronic took place then up to 20-30p. After that who knows,largely dependent on how many sales i presume.Then there are other deals waiting to be sorted don't forget.
Anyway i'm holding for another year,all being well.This may still drift down until deals are nailed so no rush.
Feel free to say 'what a load of bollocks'just having a few beers and watching film-lol

ptholden - 08 Jun 2005 22:52 - 153 of 1497

andyS

Nice to hear from you. Problem with this deal, is that at the moment we have no idea what it entails or how much it may be worth to MDW. Looking at the last set of Interims with a turnover of under 1M, no way is this worth anyhting like today's SP. However, since then a couple of deals are in the bag which will improve the Finals significantly over the previous year and then there is Medtronic. But as is often the case with AIM stocks, you are not investing / betting on the fundamentals but the potential.

As far as the fundamentals are concerned, the recent deals will add to previous turnover and profitabilty. Hopefully in the black overall for the financial year, but probably not by very much. I believe that there are only about 90M shares in issue and working on a profit of 500k for this year at a SP of 10p would give a PE of 18 which I don't think is too demanding. If you continue to use a PE of 18 for next year and add another million profit from Medtronic or elsewhere we should see a SP of 30p.

I think the two main elements that will propel the SP forward is the possible Medtronic and other distribution deals and the relatively small quantity of shares that are in issue. Of those 90M the Directors hold 24%!

pth

overgrowth - 08 Jun 2005 23:08 - 154 of 1497

pth - check out my post at the top of this link:

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/ShowPostList?fID=1&tID=5015&from=76

If that comment is going to be close to the actual value of the US deal, then we're looking at a huge hike in sp going forward.

Also, don't underestimate revenue from the PSA stick test. That's one nifty little product and very low cost to produce which means mega profits to come!

ptholden - 09 Jun 2005 08:03 - 155 of 1497

L2 4v1 so MMs still after stock. Someone obliged this morning, without waiting for a tick up, MMs must be laughing their heads off.

Beautiful day, so off to play golf.

pth

smudge1004 - 09 Jun 2005 09:08 - 156 of 1497

this article is from todays citywire, maybe someone out there could paste the full article if they have membership
looks as though the deal is done, a bit of profit taking is no bad thing as we were a tad overbought.



AIM-listed Mediwatch, which specialises in the diagnosis and treatment of prostate disease, expects to sign a deal with a large US medical company by the end of May. The deal is for the supply of portable bladder scanners

overgrowth - 09 Jun 2005 10:08 - 157 of 1497

smudge - it looks to me as though this article is an old one which refers to the original CR Bard deal. The phrase "by the end of May" wouldn't be in one of today's articles.

However, we don't need Citywire to tell us that this is a done deal. I agree that a bit of profit taking is a good thing at this stage because it gives the share a chance to "settle down" before the major rise which will occur when the Medtronic deal is confirmed. This will make the next level price much more stable - if the price shoots up and gains 100% in one go, too many people will be tempted to take profits early and it will have a limiting effect on the short term progress of the sp.

smudge1004 - 09 Jun 2005 11:10 - 158 of 1497

og, note to myself "must learn to open eyes when awake"

overgrowth - 09 Jun 2005 12:09 - 159 of 1497

"willydoctor" is back on advfn (this guy knows more than any of us about the potential for MDW's products), here's what he says - makes interesting reading don't you think ?:

"Big order being filled was mine. Bought 350K yesterday. Did anyone comment on the advert in Urology News? ****ing fantastic! It came out a few days ago which is why I larged it up on the shares. I've got it here - at least I did have until I lost it under a mound of papers. Basically it is a half page advert about 'PSAwatch' which says it is 'coming soon'. This must surely mean that it is either in production or about to be.

I know MDW is not a one-hit-wonder - but the potential for PSA sticks is massive. If I was the M.D. of MEdtronic I would be jumping up and down with excitement about getting my mits on this. It is perfect! Low start up costs (about 1K for the scanner - and you probably get it free if you contract to X number of sticks per year) and once you've got one - you are going to continue to order more sticks.

I think this is the year for MDw to break out of the previous trading range big time - and hopefully if there is a deal with Medtronic, it may involve an up-front payment and then presumably royalties and milestone achievement payments. Bring it on!"

smudge1004 - 09 Jun 2005 12:14 - 160 of 1497

.

ptholden - 09 Jun 2005 14:54 - 161 of 1497

Not surprised to see a fall today and was expecting a small retracement very much sooner than later. Agree with previous posts that this retracement is necessary in order to allow the SP to progress is the short term and actually hang onto the gains. No point in flying up 100% and then falling back the same amount a short while later. Remain very happy and contented that all is well in the MDW world.

pth

jnknill - 09 Jun 2005 15:20 - 162 of 1497

Afternoon all, The thought that remains in the forefront of my mind is even if the Medtronic talks broke down and hence for the time being nothing changes,the mere fact that a Company of their stature has shown real interest in MDW product/management is sufficient to let everyone know Mediwatch are class! Probably immaterial but what a reference. Rgds.

overgrowth - 09 Jun 2005 19:17 - 163 of 1497

jnknill - You're spot on there.

I think that it's highly unlikely that the Medtronic talks will break down, particularly given that MDW are already starting to promote the PSA stick test in the specialist media.

To put in an ad. saying "coming soon" means that they're going to follow it up with an actual launch and more ads. - this all costs plenty of 's, however if they know that a massive hugely revenue enhancing deal is about to be signed...

ptholden - 10 Jun 2005 08:16 - 164 of 1497

Morning all
L2 3v1 with only WINS on the offer. Still seems to be a shortage of stock. MMs happy to buy and a small sell has shifted the SP down.

jnknill - 10 Jun 2005 08:35 - 165 of 1497

Morning all, pth, Some MM politics on the offer price, do you think this will continue for a period of time hence no real reflection of trading in SP? Rgds.
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