The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Eric,
I`ve had a gut feeling all along that PET will get 2 contracts and block 6, i would say i`m 90% on that. as for the timeframe, well, probably by end of December (15th-20th),but definitely BEFORE the elections.

Dexter
ps, one i am watching is Sonoran Energy, because of their tie-in with an Iraqi co.

Dexter

Thanks for that! Having been involved in big ticket sales (computers), in the end of the day it is not a question of probability. Its either win or lose: 1 or 0. This a '1'! Because: (a) they do need to award the contract; (b) plenty of indicators that only PET are in the frame.

So, watchers on the sidelines, this is the chance for a mimimum 300% win; probably more! All the research you need can be found by trawling through this bb, particularly the last 2 or 3 weeks.

Eric

Eric et al: I agree with Eric's assessment and indeed have topped up. I was especially glad to read that a number of prominent shorters have decided to short PET, because they have helped the MM bring the SP down. We will see. John

This would`nt be the MM`s wanting our stock by any chance would it?!!,buys out-numbering the sells by nearly 100k and down by 5p!!!

Dexter

I invented the RPR syndrome over on the ASC bb; Robson Pattern Repeater; but as usual, johngtudor spiked my guns by saying it was already in the text books! I thought it was too simple for the professionals! If there is a preponderence of sells early in the day then the price is moved down disproportionately, in case the stream turns into a torrent; buyers move in but the MMs do not need to move the price back that far; the price closes lower although buys outnumber sells. The inverse also applies if the initial action is with the buyers. The basis is that the MM is primarily tehre to make money on trading whilst keeping stock as low as possible. The pattern occurred on 5 successive day with ASOS, two days of falling prices, followed by three days with the inverse pattern.

Having said that, the sells did eventually out-number buys because of a 150,000 T sale at 90p. A professional trader wanting to reduce his exposure? The MM picking it up to satisfy buyer demand? Glad to see jgt buying again - good news for PET!

Eric

Good Morning Pet Lovers!

Now that it has been established by Sonoran themselves in their announcement last night (see their their website) that Sonoran has not tendered for Pets project, I believe the following will show why I think the other two competitors Everasia (Turkish co) and Dome (UAE co), if they are still running, do not stand a chance against pet!

With regard to the security situation, Pet being an Irish company, the Irish are seen in the Arab world just as victims of colonialism as the Arabs themselves. Take it from me, I am Arab. I once met an Irish guy in the pub who seemed to know a lot about the Algerian war of independence. He linked it the Irish struggle for freedom from the British or the English as he put it. Like wise the Arabs feel the same about the Irish- does anyone recall Gaddafis support of the IRA in the 80s?

Further the Iraqis, being the most educated and sophisticated people in the Arab word, can make the difference between those who have a genuine business interest in Iraq and those who waged an illegal war to just grab their oil. Pet has been in Iraq longer than any other western oil company in recent years, and at times when the world not only turned its back on them but enforced a genocide (a word used by 2 directors of the UN Food for Oil Program who resigned as a result) inflicted sanctions leading to the death of more than half a million children. In fact at such times Pet has donated food and medecines to the Iraqis. Such gesture would not be unrewarded in the Arab world, believe me. Generosity is the most valued human quality in the Arab world and shame on those who lack it, and worse still for those who do not reciprocate.

Pet's management may be the most well known westerners in Iraq given their time in the country, and therefore their movements are no secret to the insurgents. Is anyone surprised why nothing has happened to Pet's directors so far? I am not.

Finally even the insurgents know that Iraq and they themselves need oil to survive.

The question that follows therefore is whether Pet has (or is being)or has not been successful? Does anyone really think the Iraqi oil ministry would send their people for training if at least one of the contracts is not already in the bag? What would be the point of having training, in the first place?

Another idea to consider may be a bit far fetched, but knowing the politics of the murky world of middle eastern governments and western involvement, the following point is a fact of life in the middle east or any other unstable country for that matter.

Government officials or VIPs in these countries would go to any length to have contacts (or contracts in Pet's case???)with western officials or business people. The reason being that, the latter may be needed to facilitate a refuge in the west just in case these dictatorial governments turn against their officials, which happens regularly. Where do 99.99% of the VIPs from the developing countries flee to when they are in trouble? The west. For the simple reason that the justice system in the west is such that you just cannot arrest somebody, try him before a state court after being tortured, and then throw him in jail or, in some cases, make him disappear.

There is saying in the Arab streets that the ONLY THING that middle eastern governments agree on is in helping one another fight their political opponents. There have been few cases where these opponents flee to another Arab country whose government happen to be in dispute with their government. First these opponents are used as pawns to taunt the government concerned. However, in most cases these governments make amend and believe you me, the main reason for their rapprochement sometimes is their opponents; and the poor opponents are either exchanged or thrown in jail and sometimes assassinated by the receiving government on behalf of the other government. This has led middle eastern political opponents to seek refuge even in some western countries they blame for their predicaments, i.e. western governments who support dictatorial regimes when even these oppress their own people. Who put Saddam Hussein in power and helped him get rid of his opponents, including Allawi the current Iraq Prime Minister? The American and the British governments. Where did Allawi live his 26 years in exile? In Britain.

In dictatorial regimes contact with the west is a matter of life and death for some officials. For example in the case of Algeria, although it is a against the law, and in the eyes of the public anathema, for members of the government to have French citizenship, because of the French colonial past in Algeria, yet dozens of secretaries of state have secretly obtained French citizenship - as an insurance policy when their time is up. In fact there are many former Algerian government ministers living in France at the moment. Further, both Allawi and Karzai, the current Afghanistan Prime Minister, hold British and American citizenships, respectively again in contravention with their countries laws. And I can assure you they will never get rid of their foreign nationalities, for soon they will be back in the west.

Now how is this murky world of politics related to Pet?

The other two Pet competitors are middle eastern countries, one Turkish and the other from the UAE. Therefore Iraqi officials, for their own sake as an insurance policy given the uncertain future of Iraq, would almost definitely award at least 1 if not 2 contracts to Pet. Add to this the west technological superiority, political and financial stability and you have all the ingredients for a winning Pet.
In the murky world of politics and business: scratch my back and I'll scratch yours.

Just put yourselves in the Iraqis shoes, who would do business with Pet, a western company with all technological know-how and financial stability or middle eastern countries. When you need refuge given the current situation and its ramification, where would you rather go? To a western country where the law protects you or in a Middle Eastern country where powerful man/woman can sign you death warrant?

From another bb this am

looks like pet have other irons in the fire:

Cabinet endorses MoUs with oil, gas exploration firms - JORDAN


AMMAN The Cabinet yesterday approved two memoranda of understanding signed with two international firms to start exploring for oil and gas in the country.
Government Spokesperson Asma Khader told reporters following the weekly Cabinet session that while the US firm Sonoran Energy will assess the Kingdom's untapped resources in Al Azraq area, the Irish company Petrel Resources will explore for oil and gas in the eastern part of Safawi.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=72057

Cabinet endorses MoUs with oil, gas exploration firms - JORDAN

Jordan Times - 08/12/2004

AMMAN The Cabinet yesterday approved two memoranda of understanding signed with two international firms to start exploring for oil and gas in the country.
Government Spokesperson Asma Khader told reporters following the weekly Cabinet session that while the US firm Sonoran Energy will assess the Kingdom's untapped resources in Al Azraq area, the Irish company Petrel Resources will explore for oil and gas in the eastern part of Safawi.

There are currently two companies exploring potential oil and gas reserves in the Kingdom: The US Trans-Global Petroleum Jordan Ltd. Company operating in the Dead Sea and Wadi Araba regions, and the National Petroleum Company, which has a concession agreement since 1996 to explore for and produce gas in the 7,500sq.km. Risheh area, near the Jordanian-Iraqi border.

A few years ago, the government approved competitive, flexible, substantial, financial and contractual privileges for international companies interested in exploring natural resources in the country.

Also yesterday, the Cabinet announced it would buy farmers' production of wheat in 2004 -2005 at competitive prices.

Under the decision, the government will buy the locally-grown wheat at international prices, with transportation expenses and 15 per cent of the overall cost added.

"The decision seeks to encourage wheat farmers to start planting as much as they can in the coming season," Khader said.

The minister said that the Cabinet also asked the Ministry of Finance yesterday to start receiving offers from "interested local institutions and companies" to finance the Disi Water Conveyance Project. She did not elaborate.

The Disi pipeline is seen as a strategic project, which will largely solve the water crisis in the Kingdom, one of the 10 most water-deprived countries in the world.

Upon completion, the project will provide the country with approximately 100mcm of drinking water annually from around 65 wells in the ancient Disi aquifer in the south.

During their weekly session, the Council of Ministers also approved a new law for the Ministry of Education and a new health insurance system for the Jordan Armed Forces.

hemacik16: Great research. Presumably PET will issue an RNS later today to announce the Jordan deal?

I assume the share price will shoot with this news so why the red so far?
Does any one know the potential of this contract ?

I rang pet they asked me to call back in an hour ,presumably an rns will be issued before or at that time.The lady did say "we don't have enough info. to be able to comment at present"

This sounds yet more positive news. I am surprised there has not been an RNS by PET yet and that the price has not moved on more.I know its not 100% conclusive but you would think the hype would have moved it upwards

125k trade! any ideas guys, eould like to think thats a buy, anybody able to clarify?

Look at the time - it was a sell.

iturama, many thanks, did look and notice that, getting a little carried away!

Twas a buy imho, my buy of 5500 @ 95.5 yesterday was shown as ? !

7.30am and no one as posted yet.

Morning Aldwick, just been on advfn, what a load of inane babble! a few posters offer sensible opinions and research, but thats approx 10% of all posts. Jordan are having a conference etc with a variety of energy sector delegates and officials over the 8th and 9th of december. There is an opinion that the news of yesterday was somewhat prematurely leaked/posted. However there is an underlying confidence that PET have secured both Iraqi and Jordanian contracts as Block 6 does cross country borders. We'll have to wait and see! an interesting day ahead!

morning all,
please excuse my ignorance, but with this article in the jordanian newspaper yesterday, could someone tell me what exactly a memorandum of understanding is ?,
many thanks,
dexter

just come across this on thisismoney, they`ve updated their site and it seems a bit confusing!, this mention is from geoff foster, the one who said a few weeks back that PET had the contracts in the bag!.

Reports that the Government of Jordan has approved Petrel Resources to start exploring for oil and gas helped the Alternative Investment Market-quoted stock gush to 107p before closing 7p better at 101p