ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

I recall Lemminginvestor doing a post on the potential for ASOS early this year. Basically, the message was that there is no real finite limit on how long they can grow for. Tesco have managed growth for an extended period, as have HSBC, but in the end of the day they are constrained by phs=ysical expansion of their locations. ASOS are still penetrating their chosen market for fashion-conscious younger people. Not for them the constraints of the High Street retailer. They could widen their focus, increase their product range, they could migrate to the US, to other geographical markets; they could increase the portals, e.g. Amazon, which direct you to their site(s). So what is their growth potential? That of NEXT? But then they do not have the ohysical constraints. They can expand to the US just by the marketing investment and building warehouses. And what capital do they need for such steps?: relatiely little; manage it out of cashflow. What about digital TV a la Ideal Direct? Difficult for competitors to break in and, even if they do, it just helps the market.

My point is that ASOS seem comfortable in handling a 75% or so growth rate in revenue with at least equal growth in profits. There is certainly a decade of expandsion at this rate. That's a compound 75% with a starting figure, say of 2m (correcting for the Christmas blip) leading to a 2015 pbt of 600m and a cap say of 20bill or 400 per share. A tad optimistic perhaps! Best to just tuck them away for 10 years and use them for the pension scheme!

Eric

Very good Eric but i hav'nt got that long, im getting old, 1 will do me fine thanks.

jimmy b,
you and me both, I have tucked a few away for the grandchildren!!!!

jimmy b; SEADOG: Utter rubbish, nobody is as old as me, but I don't give away numbers for fear they'll shovel the other foot into the grave.
But ASC has the power to keep us young and I'm thinking of climbing aboard for the recovery because apart from the storyline,in my view their website, their shop window, has that indefinable 'chic' to be found nowhere else. But I'm not the best judge of these things, and I would be interested to hear from younger members, or their children, if this is a common view. How for instance do people think it compares with the new Froogle shopping site.
sd.

What a load of optimistic twaddle that gue EWRobson posted yesterday - obviously the Rioja talking! Having said that, I was chatting away (to myself, as usual) on the SEO bb about S-curves: all about the three phases of a product life-cycle: essentially the early-birds who make the market; the growth phase and the saturation phase. We'll accept we are in the growth phase with a gradient of 75% per annum. may vary between 50% and 100%. The key question is 'how long does it go on for?'. Well, what is the market size. The basic point is that the market for ASOS, fashion conscious young people, is defined by the total fashion market and it is defined on a world-wide basis. So their penetration is still miniscule: 500K registered users against 5 million in the UK say and 500 million worldwide. I'm happy to settle for a 10-bagger over a 5 year period!

Eric

Actually im not that old, howevever i do have three niece's and they have been buying clothes since last year from the ASOS site,,and they all say that the quality of the clothes is very good, unlike other sites they have bought from.
Now they are buying all sorts of trinkets from there..
squidd, i don't know the Froogle site , i shall have a look..JB..

Last week, I was thinking of climbing aboard ASC and queried the competition from Froogle, but co-incidentally, over the weekend, my small grandson was 'borrowed' by a fledgling O/L fashion house for a photo shoot; it has given me an insight into the mushrooming growth of a new cottage industry in competition with ASC. A search on google then brought up almost 1M UK references to O/L ladies fashion retailers, so it is now beginning to look to me as though this sector is as crowded as gambling and telecoms and I won't be buying ASC.
Meanwhile the grass looks greener over at PCM but this could be because google hasn't yet got the measure of China.
sd.

Hmm. Seeing this morning's price leap, have to think again.
sd.

Should of bought last week squidd, maybe the drop was just a temporary glitch.

Positive comment in the Independent on Saturday listed ASC as one of five AIM stocks to follow.

The sp has been trading in the 55/60 range for a few weeks now and that is boucing back off my line of resistance and perhaps forming a consolidation for a higher move when the results come in. SD

Squidd - I always like two pubs in a road. It creates more business for both of them overall, and I'm happy to back ASC's dominance in its chosen market which seems a little different from O/L. But both contribute to the increasing culture of shopping on line which is good.

Still holding ASC and anticipate the current chart formation (is it a flag? somebody technical, please) to break north at the appropriate moment.

sd

sd: suspect it is a flag, but suggest you call it (baby) bunting!

squidd: having given a fundamental view above, suggest you look at the ASC chart for last year. First, ASC have not lost volume, so that the glitch was a profit one due to stock-holding problems. Second, the growth rate should be confirmed at the 2004 level which means, in turn, that the sp graph should pick up where it left off. It seems most unlikely that the stock problems will re-occur, although the market will want to see them installed in their new warehouse. There is, IMO, negligible downside against an upside, initially of 70p to 80p in last autumn's trading range but probably fairly smartly to 1+ by the end of the year. Suggestion to you and others is to take a stake and add as the story unfolds. The cottage industry is no problem, indeed a blessing as it gets people involved in internet buying.

Eric

E.W.R.: I am extremely grateful for your post. I continue to watch ASC and as said earlier, believe that their website has some indefinable 'chic'. I was also much impressed by a couple of glimpses in recent TV news items showing the frantic activity - a kind of well organised chaos, inside their modelling area.
But my very recent brush with a competitor in a tiny cottage industry, prompted me to search for other cottage industries which collectively might offer real competition, hence my browse through google which turned up almost a million references to online ladies fashion retailers. Of these, Froogle on its own seemed to be a small threat so I posted my earlier query about the competition.
I will continue watching. Meanwhile, I have a holding in PCM which I think could turn into the Asian ASC and believe that Mrs EWR also holds.
Regards, sd.

Eric,
Don't think its a flag, as flags are usually preceeded by an almost vertical movement of the sp on heavy volume and terminate after one to three weeks with a further upward(bullish) movement (or if bearish, downward) , this has gone on longer, and at the moment there is no sign of a continuing upward movement as there should be with a bullish flag. If you are right a flag is a strong continuation pattern. SD

Eric,
They gave up bunting long ago its all nylon now, moving with the times. SD

Well, if it's not a flag and bunting doesn't exist any more, it must just be a triangle shaped thingy (tst in the trade)!

sd

stockdog,
If its not a flag and its triangular in shape it must be either a pennant or a wedge, a pennant you fly a wedge you insert( I'll leave you to find the insertion point without too much pain !!!) Thank you for the trade description (tst) SD

There you go, eric, can't argue with two dogs can you.

Wouldn't want to argue with a dog! What's better than one dog - two! That's why we have Honey and Tess who is still not house trained. Hope sd and SD are house trained - awful job clearing up the mess.

Prelims announced for 11th July - nice and early; want to tell everyone how clever they are. Also my birthday so it has to be good news. grandson also due that day but suspect he will arrive early - we Robson's always get ahead of ourselves, meet ourselves coming back, just like you dogs chasing your tails, in fact!

Eric