cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
explosive
- 14 Mar 2008 18:32
- 1479 of 21973
Bear Sterns bailed out... Exactly what I'm doing 11844 short positions on Wall St closed....
cynic
- 14 Mar 2008 18:55
- 1480 of 21973
well done .... just about picked the very bottom (yet again) ..... excellent touch you have at the moment, which i confess i have lost
explosive
- 14 Mar 2008 20:14
- 1481 of 21973
Glad to see the bounce, placed a sale at 11913 when it went back up then did another at 12001 praying for a fall, glad to say the two when closed cancelled each other out with a small loss.... Honestly I have to say this is pot luck Cynic rather than any charting or skill, you just don't know if it'll keep falling or rally. Usually I allow bets to roll into the next day but at the moment have been closing. Next week will most likely see you correct with your bets, judging from the boards it seams to be swinging 1 week on 1 week off, all we can do is ensure we win a little more than we lose.
Falcothou
- 14 Mar 2008 20:17
- 1482 of 21973
It has been very crazy today and workes well with shorting from 12000 though not sure whether it is a good idea to do it in the last hour as that's when things usually go completely nuts!
cynic
- 14 Mar 2008 20:18
- 1483 of 21973
markets are worse than the worst fairground ride at the moment
Falcothou
- 14 Mar 2008 20:21
- 1484 of 21973
I notice that IG have opened their dow spread to 6 points so been trading on gft instead
Falcothou
- 14 Mar 2008 20:26
- 1485 of 21973
I suppose that their is so much indecision and in my more paranoid moments am thinking that the big US players have formed a cartelle to trade in parallel to drive the market up and down for huge profits to make up for all they have lost through sub prime. I am very concerned about all the private equity deals and leveraged positions that look like they could get called in! I suppose there could easily be the huge rally before the fed's next cut.
cynic
- 14 Mar 2008 20:41
- 1486 of 21973
i would doubt that Fed will allow BSC to collapse, and i hope that is not just wishful thinking ..... to allow a company with as high a profile as BSC to collapse would be potentially catastrophic ..... i suspect that a buyout of some description will be hatched with possibly/probably JPM and Fed lending a discreet helping hand in some way.
i guess another swingeing rate cut on Tuesday is a racing certainty, and one can only hope that the results of all this cheap money will filter through into the US economy within the next 4/6 months .... more important is a rebuilding of consumer confidence, and that is much more difficult
explosive
- 14 Mar 2008 20:42
- 1487 of 21973
Anyone got any ideas for other plays? GBP/JPY looking a risky short on futures expecting this to climb in the weeks ahead. 210 being my shorting target. CNE looking high on speculation at just under 3000 the same as when FTSE 100 was at 6200 so expecting a fall here, high due to takeover rumours but if no news will become a risky equity to hold at current levels. SWISS all over the place, taken a loss on this and re-evaluating... Also does anyone here play dividends, in on ex-div date hold for record and then sell trying to either take a small equity profit or breakeven?
Also I have found that I can't chart the last couple of weeks, no trend or history like we've seen, unchartered water I think however the more experienced will disagree. News has also been very unpredictable, I figure the DOW will rise as the FTSE did following the BoE intervention in Northern Rock, very similar to the US's BearStearns and the FEDs + JP Morgans response. How high, maybe again the FTSE and our history has the answer in percentages, one for the weekend I think if I can get out of decorating...
Falcothou
- 15 Mar 2008 09:21
- 1488 of 21973
Not very savvy re. currencies explosive but saw this today http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/14/cndollar114.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
cynic
- 15 Mar 2008 10:07
- 1489 of 21973
exp* ..... think you are very brave indeed to short JPY vs ..... BoE will undoubtedly cut rates, and certainly one knowledgeable broker reckons 190 is the floor within the next 6/8/10 months.
overall, markets will be very volatile indeed for at least the next week or two, depending on how the mood of the moment (literally!) takes investors
BigTed
- 16 Mar 2008 19:03
- 1490 of 21973
Would magine USD to strengthen soon, almost oversold (although not without good reason), however research suggests it wont even take good news, just a stop to all the bad news for a rebound, for that reason im looking to short gbpusd verysoon...
BigTed
- 16 Mar 2008 21:32
- 1491 of 21973
Useful site for currency information, although heavily weighted towards charting...
http://www.dailyfx.com/
niceonecyril
- 17 Mar 2008 06:52
- 1492 of 21973
Looks like tin hat time for the markets, with the Asian markets tumbling overnight?
cyril
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 08:43
- 1493 of 21973
Massive gap up by the Yen, USD and GBP taking a hammering, euro in the 157's... A run on the dollar???
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 12:22
- 1494 of 21973
Never seen anything like this before... GBPJPY massive drop now just over 19330... EURUSD hit 159 earlier, currently wondering if thats the top, lots of headlines using words like dollar capitulating, tanking etc would support this, possibly looking at G3 central banks intervening... thought it would take several weks for GBPJPY to reach 190, but a 7/800 pip drop overnight is bordering on ridiculous.... mores the pity i didn'thave a short open....
cynic
- 17 Mar 2008 12:28
- 1495 of 21973
you and me both Ted! .... was looking at it just a few weeks ago at 210/212 but did nothing
spitfire43
- 17 Mar 2008 12:35
- 1496 of 21973
have been away from home recently, and too busy to contribute, but still keeping a close on this interesting thread. still have one short running in GAW which is heading in the right direction.
can't see dow heading anywhere but down now, not even Ronnie Regan can save this one.
BigTed
- 17 Mar 2008 12:41
- 1497 of 21973
Cracking research site, although very bearish well worth reading some of their articles...
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/43864/a-rescue-for-bear-stearns-but-the-fed-is-destroying-the-dollar.html
explosive
- 17 Mar 2008 13:13
- 1498 of 21973
19199 have decided to buy GBP/YEN pair... My only open play at the moment.