NML is due its interrim results now, last year it was the 28th of this month.

They are setting up a new site to explore/research/analyse and all the equipment to do this should be on site now, and drilling should start soon, all this extra news should be covered in the interims.

does anyone have any further positive views on this company ??

The majority of the posters on AD^FN are still clinging to the hope that NML will be allowed either a free carry or to start the alluvial operations. A few are even speculating on a large sackfull of diamonds - for which there is no evidence at all. After all, if NML had such a sack they would have been obliged to report this price sensitive information to the market.

It seems completely ridiculous to ignore the true ramifications of Senator Johnston's visit. It appears quite clear to me that NML is pulling out the political big guns, because they are in deep trouble with Endiama. I would say that the biggest indicator of this is the fact that they were not allowed to alluvial mine after they were evicted off the kimberlite. This is not just because Endiama wants to research the kimberlites, but it looks like Endiama is 'punishing' NML for trespassing where they were not supposed to be and for not extracting the alluvial diamonds as they led Endiama to believe they would be.

Rather than fantasising about sackfulls of diamonds or free carry percentages, what you should be doing is trying to work out if NML has a future at all. You should be writing letters to NML and Endiama, requesting that they allow NML to mine the alluvials they were supposed to have been extracting since April.

Maybe a few of you, the richer ones that claim that their NML holding is such a small value of their overall investment, could start trying to get NML the finance they will need to start alluvial operations. Maybe a rights issue to the existing shareholders. Just don't expect all the directors or the Badenhorsts to participate IMO!

In my opinion, the working capital they raised for the Kimberlite work must be all but exhausted by now and I doubt that they'll be able to get the money from anywhere else. Indeed, you may find that the previous placees are now somewhat reluctant to stump up more funds now that NML is reduced to pitting and sampling work for the foreseeable future. Unless of course they were given an extremely large premium to the market price. Even so, if they do get such a premium, the 'mystery' seller(s) will probably try to take advantage.

Just over two weeks to go to F-day

That's Free-fall by the way.

Here's a prediction anomalous: from now on, NML outperforms your EPD. Market cap is just too low now and it will not go broke. EPD has a much higher market cap and little cash to support it, and its project does not light any fires in my view.

Frankly, all diamond stocks on AIM are dodgy with the exception of Firestone in my opinion. You seem to hold nothing but diamond stocks - you have got to have rocks in your head.

When a share has dropped in value as much as NML, it's not hard for a 'rumour' to push the share price up by a bigger percentage than some others. However, you are making a very rash prediction stating that NML will outperform EPD, given that you are rapidly approaching F-Day. The percentage drop is going to make a lot of people wince.

On top of that, I've been advised by someone I trust a great deal (unconnected with EPD) that they are going to perform so well, that a lot of NML holders will regret taking the mickey as they did earlier this year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised for Agincourt to be so embarrassed that he never shows his face again.

Ha! The chance of Agincourt leaving is pretty low...

Looking forward to seeing your red face soon, anomalous!

Anomalous - I agree with you over the posiition NML are now in, but with a slight variation on how they got there.

When the "started production" on the alluvials in April, they had not got a production licence, since they needed to produce a minimum quantity (20,000 carats???) before being able to apply for one.

Now they have used all their cash on the misguided kimberlite attempt, they cannot afford to get back to any level of mining, so can't produce the ante for a production licence. So all they can do is lay off staff (high and low) and mothball the equipment. The company will tick over with SH administerinug it and Badenhorst jr. minding the gear whilst the Senator does the bennded knee trick with Endiama. I'm not sure Endiama needed to "punish" them, or would have wanted to, since alluvial cashflow is as good as kimberlite any day (even if less, a greenbacks a greenback) and Endiama own 51% of it.

So, I agree we are stuffed for cashflow. Sen Johnston will need to learn to tap dance on his knees to get enough leeway from Endiama to stand a chance of any fund-raising. I would jump at the chance of a free carry in return for bowing out of the concession entirely, since it is capital free, but I have no illusions as to this being in the bag just yet.

Why F-day and how did you arrive at when? Please expand.

sd

Are there positives?

There is the value of the Greenland JV interest . This is not easy to value yet but realisable and more than the current market cap.

It is thought by the management that there is incentive for Endiama etc to include NML as a JV partner. - The strategy they had adopted, although a bit confrontational, has at least given them the opportunity to participate in the kimberlite
I have been assured by the management that NML are not at loggerheads with Catoca
There would be more to worry about if NML had high market cap, high borrowings, large cash outflows, no other assets, and no big potential gain.

stockdog [Send an email to stockdog] [View stockdog's profile] - 13 Oct 2005 19:56 - 1492 of 1493

Why F-day and how did you arrive at when? Please expand.

We can agree to disagree on the reasons how NML managed to get themsleves in this mess. In fact, we may find out what happened in the near future.

F-day comes from F for free-fall and F for Finals.

If you take a look at the data for last year, you can see that the Final Results were not received well. At the time, most of the shareholders were eagerly anticipating news of the mine start, which the management and csmyth (their chief cheerleader) had led them to believe was imminent.

It should be remembered that Shane Healy made his "Going for it, right from the start" statement to most of the shareholders, so they believed that the company would only take a few days after the equipment arrived (in October), to get set up and then ramp up production immediately. They were not anticipating a financial statement telling them that the company had made huge losses for the financial year.

In a sense, they should have expected it. However, I reckon that some thought that the news of the mine start would precede the results and the resultant surge in the share price would not suffer too much when the financials were filtrered in.



After the financials came out on 29th October (which incidentally was the last working day of the month), the shareholders tried to put a brave face on it and pointed out that now the financials were out of the way and the share price had dropped, but it could recover on the mine-start news and would have nothing to hold it back.

However, as we know now, this was not the case. The share price dropped and the mine start never came till April 2005. Only a few updates enabled the price to recover in the meantime.

What alerted me to there being something dreadfully wrong, was the fact that someone put their foot in it and made a statement on the AD^FN BB which I later confirmed and verified to be untrue. The company admitted that the mine start had not happened and the equipment was not operating because of the rains. At that point I started alerting people that something did not smell right. Thankfully a few people did sell up at this price, so they didn't suffer the drops that the rest have since. A few more came to agree with me when their appraisal of the management did not come up to the level of probity required. They too had sold out beforehand.

Since then, many other shareholders have changed their opinion. The latest change was the most telling of all, because it goes to show that one of the biggest supporters now considers that NML never did mine the alluvials as claimed. We shall see where this goes from here.

F-understood, thanks

sd

I'm sure Wendy will be interested to hear that she was one of NML's biggest supporters!

No you have it wrong Anomalous - F is for f***wit!

love the analysis, m/investor!

mininginvestor,

lol!!!

and nml has a few of those, look at the mess they are in !!!

From the RNS
"Whilst alluvial diamond production is a lucrative cash flow operation, the asset
which adds greatest shareholder value is hard rock kimberlite. With this in view
the Company is looking to work more closely with Endiama and its partners in
Angola to gain a Kimberlite exploration licence.

Endiama assistance

Endiama the Company's 51% partner in the project has assisted the Company by
assigning one of its pre-eminent geologists and a senior topographer to the
project. The Company and Endiama are committed to working together to ensure the
most profitable outcome for the joint venture."

What's wrong with reverting to the lucrative cashflow on the alluvials? Got no cash to do it with and no production licence still.

Do Endiama have top technicians? Or are these minders to keep NML out of trouble?

I take these words to be NML directors putting a brave face on their predicament, not as nuggets of hope, I'm afraid.

sd

stockdog..morning...
I had a long conversation with the PR chap two days ago. Obviously PR people are always optimistic but he stressed that things are being accelerated to get the potential from the C9, by bringing in bigger guns, more equipment and skilled geologists.
What I am assuming is that the earlier core samples which were taken in January have shown promise of good quality. Alrosa would be able to take material to their mine and process it with their equipment.NML are NOT at loggerheads with Alrosa.

mclellan - 16 Oct'05 - 12:42 - 2107 of 2108
prsimo..their PR bloke told me the other day that they are trying to get institutional support

........And the laughs could be heard for miles!
Are this PR agency serious?! Do they really think anyone would invest institutional funds in such a basket case as NML?!

They would have to have been committed to an 'Institution' for even considering investing in such a pile of poo!

NML must really be getting desparate to make such a claim. It is completely ridiculous to consider that any professional investment body would invest in a company whose only track record of note has been

1. the destruction of value,
2. the failure to achieve the goals they set for themselves,
3. the inability to bring in revenue where plenty was available and
4. a total lack of concern for the shareholders.

Institutions are very reluctant to invest in mining stocks unless they are backed by other firms with a serious pedigree, such as majors or other institutions and banks. With no JV's , no foreseeable income, a annoyed partner (Endiama) and very little in the way of solid assets, I very much doubt that NML will get any takers whatsoever.

The one key thing that NML needed to capture the institutional's attention has been singularly lacking since they started. That is a proper analyst's report. To my knowledge, they have tried to get such a report on several occasions. I have yet to hear of any analyst being interested in putting their reputation on the line by writing about NML. In fact, I doubt that any analyst would be stupid enough to even attempt to.

Two weeks and counting......................................

Anomalous..that is your opinion. In my opinion, you sound more desperate than them. You have your own perception of what is happening, but you do not necessarily know the correct facts.
I repeat...that is what he SAID.
You do realise the C9 concession is right next to one of Angola's best diamond mines. Why should you asssume that there is no future? I agree that it is not what they set out to do...but that does not necessarily mean the end, as you constantly, happily, and nastily predict.
What you say , or I say, is of no consequence to what happens. You might put a few people off..but NML will succeed or fail on its own merits. They are involved in a bigger picture...as long as they don't get squeezed out of the 'frame'!
(picture..frame..I know you have no sense of humour!)
It is easy to sneer.

On the basis that "He who throws mud loses ground" I must say my sympathies lie with Takahe rather than Anomalous. There is a 100% correlation between vituperative assertion and inaccuracy of message on MAM threads in my experience. Anomalous, if you were right, you would have no need to use such an abusive style. It is the uncertainty of your own position that leads you to behave so egregiously. I have no idea who is right, but I know one thing for certain from the tone of your posts - neither do you. Give it a rest and let some light into the argument for once.

Takahe, happy to debate with you any day - even though I have really no more idea that you are right than Anomalous. At least your more courteous style feels less like a hammer to dull my own poor brain, so is in itself an aid to more constructive reflection on the future of NML.

But who am I to hold any opinion when I am guilty of following this share down against the stern advice of Mr Market who long ago gave the order to abondon ship.

I am resigned to this share being a 50/50 gamble between anihilation and retaining some carried share in a new operation of the C9 concession between Endiama and Alrosa, plus the value of their Finnish interest. If the latter allows the company to survive, it will one day be picked up by someone looking for an AIM listing (not unvaluable), although I think it would stretch the definition of a "cash shell" a little further than history has previously admitted.

Since the upside of survival is probably about 3 X the current value - that fits with my parameter of at least 3 X the upside potential to the down in any investment. So I'm staying in. Perhaps if I confine my defiance to Mr Market on this one share alone, he will bless me with good fortune on the others I hold.

sd

Stockdog,

To the best of my knowledge, Anomalous has no position in NML, so has no need to sound desperate.

Takahe has a holding.

IMO we can all only speculate, some are more informed than others, but one thing is for certain, you can't argue with the price or chart, and on that basis, the market doesn't like NML at the moment.

I have spoken to the PR guy, on several occasions, and with no disrespect intended, (he is a decent guy), he is not that savvy on NML, or mining stocks (IMHO).

I still don't buy the change to kimberlite mining, after all, if it was by far the better prospect, why didn't they do that from the beginning?

And they're still apparently spurning 10,000 carats per month alluvial production? No way IMO!

They certainly need to pull some sort of solid positive news before the results, or the price will be caned I think.

The next couple of weeks could be very interesting.

I do indeed have a holding..I have always made that perfectly clear. My reference to Anom sounding desperate, as is also perfectly clear, is that he is desperate to see this share fail. We all know he has no position in it, now..nor Andy either. It amazes me that they spend so many hours on the BB of a share they do not hold. It seems to be resented by them if I report anything positive said by Company people.
Considering the PR guy also does Mano River, Alexandra Mining , Beowulf and another, as well as NML, he must have some idea of mining stocks...although he is certainly not an expert. That does not stop him trying to get some coverage of the various shares and to try and do his job decently. Another point he made to me was that he would not stay with them if he didn't think they would succeed because their failure would not be good for his own business. One of his jobs is to answer simple questions from shareholders. If you don't care to believe him, that is up to you.