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MEDICAL MARKETING, A Speculative Punt That Might Reap Rich Rewards (MMG)     

goldfinger - 01 Sep 2004 15:33

This ones a heck of a specualive investment but it seems that the institutions are willing to stomp up the cash to back it in the long term.

Heres the latest news from Killik stocbrokers on the company..........

MEDICAL MARKETING Joint Venture

We recently highlighted Medical Marketing (MMG) as worthy of attention. The company, in which I have a personal share holding, has this morning announced the formation of a joint venture, Genvax, to develop a novel DNA vaccine platform technology.

Human trials have been underway since 2001 in areas such as Lymphoma and Myeloma but the technology has broad applications in cancer, viral and bacterial infections (hence the term platform). The technology works on boosting the immune system by teaching it to identify hard to recognise cancer proteins as foreign and destroy them. Early results from the 25 patient trial in lymphoma are encouraging and evaluation of the result is expected by March 2005. Successful results should mean big pharmaceutical groups will start to take financial and commercial interests around that time.

This looks to be the first of a series of announcements due from Medical Marketing as it has a range of predominantly cancer trials moving into the clinical stage. (news flow could push the price higher)

The stock has made good progress in recent sessions up to the mid-80p level where the company is valued at just under 40 million. ENDS.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

bhunt1910 - 27 Apr 2005 15:10 - 1488 of 2444

Gf - I am really not qualified to comment, whilst I think I am reasonably intelligent - I have no background in investment analysis nor medicine - I would class myself as a herd trader - one who listens and watches and picks up the crumbs - usually after the feast - but enough crumbs to make a profit as in SEO, NLR, CBY, VML etal. I am retired and like to amuse myself by normally finding shares that others have researfhed ('cos I would not know how) and jumping on the bandwagon. Mind you I have made some horrendous mistakes and I still hold CWV which has plummetted down from 20p to 1.5p - which was when I belatedly learnt the value of a stop loss

However, what impresses me about MMG is that the management seem to have their heads screwed on - and they appear to be being ulta cautious - which I like in a company but which does not help us in the short term . I am convinced this will benefit us in the long term - and they have an impressive product range with many at an advanced stage undergoing trials.

I have about 35k of shares which at 190 gives me break even as I stumbled on these quite late on and bought at 213, 183, 189 & 190. However I plan to hold these for the medium term recognising that they may fall back some more in the short term - although I am hoping that 180 is providing a resistance level.

In summary - I like the management team, I think their product range is sound and exciting, I like their plans for the future - perhaps they could with help on the sales and marketing front - and they seem to have sufficient funds. They are also pushing against an open door. However - there is never smoke without fire - so when others say that these shares are only worth 40p - I tend to listen - then make my own judgement

Cheers Baza

mickeyskint - 27 Apr 2005 15:18 - 1489 of 2444

Good post GF. I've been out most of the day and have come back feeling a lot more positive. When I think about MMG it's got to be difficult to value potential. Are the shares worth 180 or 300, who knows. The true value can only be arrived at when there is something tangable to offer one of the big pharmas. If you strip out the hope/potential value then it doesn't look good. But that's what companies like this are all about...potential. If just a few of the drugs they are bringing forward succeed then everyone is a winner big time but IF they fail then we all loose. So which perspective do you look at it from. Me, well I'm in from 107 to 260 and I feel positive. This is a winner it just has to be. Think about it, someone has developed a vaccine against cancer. Now is that potential or what. You've got to believe if only for the poor souls that one day might have to take it. I'm holding and if you have hope and believe then you'll do the same.

LOL

MS

mickeyskint - 27 Apr 2005 15:40 - 1490 of 2444

Got this from the other place. The last paragraph says it all for me.

A0469514 - 26 Apr'05 - 22:34 - 5331 of 5359


On Genvax, it appears that the vaccine has worked very well in the lymphoma trial but it seems to require an individual vaccine to be engineered for each patient. Likewise in the myeloma trial. This sounds to me as though it must be extremely expensive for the NHS to take on, though Mr. Best did suggest that there may be ways around it. The national blood service, I think he said, were looking at ways to create individual vaccines relatively cheaply.

However, the next generation of Genvax therapies to go into trial will be a vaccine against prostate cancer where the antigens are common to most patients. Thus the same vaccine should work with most people. Prostate cancer is very common in older males and is one of the more difficult types to treat. Relatively little previous research has been carried out in this field so there is a substantial unmet need. A successful vaccine here could be another blockbuster and Phase IIa trials are starting now. Some readers on here may, I suspect, have a personal interest in this.
I was not aware of this trial previously. Maybe others were.

Finally, trials for colon cancer (Phase IIa) and stomach cancer (Phase I) will start shortly. Both of these are, as I understood it, "one product suits all" types and thus are very much comercially viable.

In all of these posts I talk about the comercial aspects but I do not want to give the impression that this is all I care about. On the contrary, one of my motivations for investing in such companies as MMG is the thought that my dosh may just be doing some good in finding relief for sufferers of some of these awful diseases. It has got to be better than investing in tobacco companies anyway.

Xylos

MS

mickeyskint - 27 Apr 2005 15:56 - 1491 of 2444

From the other place. The guys that post on MMG are really on the ball. Some excellent knowledge and all free, can't be bad.

BennytheBall - 27 Apr'05 - 11:24 - 5353 of 5360


Xylos, a preventative vaccine treatment for cancer is something of a holy grail in medecine. Some of the evidence from the early Genvax studies, the fact that an immune response is produced in bone marrow donors who are donating their bone marrow to patients and that immune reponse is replicated in the actual patient, is amongst the most exciting data so far produced. It's difficult to get any immune response in patients whose immune system has been knocked out by chemotherapy, but initially it was only those patients who could try the vacinne. Getting regulatory approval for healthy donors to take the vaccine was a beurocratic/research protocol breakthrough in itself, but they have only shown mild flu symtoms as a result and the actual patients' have gone into remission as a result of the pre-priming of their donated bone marrow to kill off the cancer cells remaining. The next step is to treat patients before they have had their immune system knocked out by chemotherapy.

There must be some synergy with ruthenium here, since the toxicity is far lower.

But the main point is that if an immune response can be triggered in healthy donors without significant risk, that is the beginnings of evidence that a preventative treatment can be developed. If prostate cancer antigens are similar in all sufferers to the point that a single DNA Vaccine can be developed, if it efficacious with sufferers it is a forgone conclusion that there will be moves to take it into a preventative vacinnation programme, since those likely to develop prostate cancer are so easily identifiable (as a result of family history).

MS

Chiva20 - 27 Apr 2005 16:24 - 1492 of 2444

Excellent posts Mickey. Thanks for copying them over.

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 02:20 - 1493 of 2444

Some constructive posts there Mickey, thanks for sharing them with us.

Baza, dont talk daft of course your qualified to talk about this subject and stock. I dont think anybody on this thread is an expert, maybe Mitzy knows a lot more than most of us but your as good as anyone else . Dont put yourself down mate were all pals here.

Its a difficult subject I admit and its even worse trying to value a company, but if we get the input like tonight from Mickey we should have a fair enough depth of knowledge.

Give me a boring old established name from the past and as an accountant Ill kick the ass off it.

cheers GF. PS, going over to check on a team of 24 now who are cleaning up a textile engineers. Pound to a penny the lazy gits are having a tea break lol, sees yer later.

bhunt1910 - 28 Apr 2005 07:57 - 1494 of 2444

Thanks for those few kind word GF - I will continue watch listen & learn

Baza

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 12:58 - 1495 of 2444

Under pressure again today. Cant go on for much longer.

cheers GF.

mitzy - 28 Apr 2005 13:13 - 1496 of 2444

Dipped my toes in again and topped up at 175p just now as according to their forecast they could have up to 10 compounds in trials by the year end which is a bigeer portfolio than some of the big majors..cannot see thses getting much cheaper.

seawallwalker - 28 Apr 2005 13:34 - 1497 of 2444

You put your money where your mouth is................

Good luck.

hlyeo98 - 28 Apr 2005 17:21 - 1498 of 2444

Why the drop again today?

chad - 28 Apr 2005 17:35 - 1499 of 2444

Im out at the moment. Seems to me that this one's going to slide for a while while we aint got no drug results.

ateeq180 - 28 Apr 2005 19:40 - 1500 of 2444

So much has been said about this share,in a positive sense,and those people who must have sold at a higher price obviously think this is going to fall more so they can get in,with given information on the trials and so forth other issues some investors on iii board think downward risk is more than the upward,yet a week ago every thing was positive,regardless what happens i think these will come good short term.

doughboy66 - 28 Apr 2005 20:17 - 1501 of 2444

The markets are a shorters dream come true,there are a lot of very good companies out there suffering big drops in there SP because of the markets.When the good news is announced in the future the price will move up a lot ,in the meantime however we will have to suffer the pain like a lot of other investors,remember no pain no gain.
DB66
KEEP THE FAITH!!!
Don`t let the b*****ds have your shares

andysmith - 28 Apr 2005 20:42 - 1502 of 2444

Unfortunately folks, IMO, as good as the presentation was and as good as the pipeline of products is there was no new immediate news that the market was looking for to justify the sp rising back to 300p. It doesn't matter what we all think about MMG and its future prospects and pipeline of products, the market decides the price and it still ranks as speculative for many at a time when the market has the jitters. I feel even more lucky to have took my profits at 270p from 70p because I havn't a tube of glue (clue) where the sp will trade throughout the Summer, quite possibly down below 150p and I have even more time to judge when to increase my stake again. Just an opinion so please don't slate me because I still agree with gf and Mitzy that when Ruthenium goes into trials and there is more news from Genvax this will be a 300-400p share and quite possibly more. Difficult call what to do now if average >200p.
Apparently I was mad taking my profit when I did, doesn't look so daft now!!

bhunt1910 - 28 Apr 2005 20:48 - 1503 of 2444

Hey Andy - hindsight is a wonderful thing and we all make judgement calls along the way based on experience and personal circumstances. With hindsight - you made a brilliant call/judgement/decision. - whatever you want to call it - it does not matter - it was your decision and you made it for whatever reason.

Well done - now tell me the secret!!

Green with envy

Baza

andysmith - 28 Apr 2005 20:49 - 1504 of 2444

If its any crumb of comfort, even from 70p, at times last year I sat on 25-30% paper losses but eventually got my reward. MMG could and should still reward if you can afford to be patient and hold, depends on individual circumstances.
Good Luck to all MMG holders, whatever you decide BUT if anyone does sell out for now, keep on your watchlist and pick a moment to get back in. Imagine what will happen to the sp when there is THE news everyone has been waiting for.

andysmith - 28 Apr 2005 21:10 - 1505 of 2444

Baza, the only secret was having held MMG for over a year I couldn't see IMO how the extra Genvax news made it rise from 70pish on Jan 3rd to 300p. And no I'm not a shorter, it just felt too high and driven on the crest of hype surrounding possible Ruthenium trials in the Spring, although I must admit in the last few weeks to thinking that I'd missed the opportunity when I've dallied around wondering whether or not to get back in . Why didn't I buy again? as I said on this board a few weeks ago, several times MMG has flattered to deceive on its timing only, expectation grows, so does the sp and then there is no news or delays and it falls and you are left holding a paper loss until the next good news or publicity. Having sold at 270p, if the presentation had detailed early next stage trialing I had time even on the day to get back in at a lower price, as it was there was no real immediate news and it goes back to 170p. Yes, it looks like in the end I made a good call, about bloody time cos I get more wrong than right but hopefully I'm learning and making fewer mistakes and more good calls. MMG will remain on my watchlist, it should see 300p again in 2005 if the plan hits its targets and Ruthenium does progress to clinical trials.

goldfinger - 28 Apr 2005 23:59 - 1506 of 2444



slide25.jpg

cheers GF.

banjomick - 29 Apr 2005 01:29 - 1507 of 2444

So what do we put the present price drop down to then.What has changed over the last month?
Well......A lot of shorters taking advantage of the rise in sp is obviously the main one and so what,does it really matter?It does if you want a quick profit but in the long term you will hopefully be rewarded in both money and maybe a cure for your illness now or in the future.
Maybe BB's are powerfull after all!The drop in price if you graphed it up to worth while inputs on BB's would be very interesting I think.I can understand why the sp has dropped so far due to the trials ongoing,so no cure yet,but the feed back from the company is still very good!Would expect the sp to drift around(by a big margin)the 190 mark until more positive news is released.
My father was diagnosed with prostate cancer about 4 years ago and the three choices he had to make to make him live longer with any sort of life were quite frightening.One of the choices was to have some radiation treatment with a certain % of success but if it didn't work they wouldn't be able to do any more for him,once you had this treatment you couldn't do anything else!!!Can't remember the second choice but he chose the third which i think was to rip the problem out,he has a normal life now but still gets regular checks.
If anyone would like the three choices explained in more detail i will ask him and post his answers.
The above is related to another field of mmg,and not the main one we are looking forward for results in.
Anyway I bought a few more today.....it's heredatary(might not be spelt right-lol)so have a personal interest!


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