Blacks Leisure has traded satisfactorily for the majority of the first half, however recent trading, especially during August, was difficult and the Group now expects that the loss before tax for the first half will be approximately 4.5m before exceptional items, compared to a loss before tax and exceptional items of 0.6m in the previous year

Seems appropriate somehow:Strawbs

I wonder how the management feel!

If paid in shares.... pretty sick I'd imagine. Other commodity plays fairing no better: Strawbs.

Just goes to show that all bubbles go pop eventually, and sometimes pretty quickly too. Oil companies next, closely followed by gold....

In my (is nothing safe in this market) opinion.

Strawbs.

IMO it is commodity funds having to sell through redemptions. Once the US triggers the sell-off in the afternoon, then it becomes unstoppable.

As much as I hate owning loss-making shares, I don't have to sell so will brave it out as I'd be taking a big hit if I did get out.

Eventually the trend will reverse and IMO they will recover somewhat very quickly.

That's the theory anyway!

All to do with leverage. Buying several times what you can afford is fine on the way up, but on the way down it's fatal, and ultimately why markets will not recover for many years.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Not sure about the last bit Strawbs. If we become very oversold, when the worst is over then greed will play a part and as pi's and others see the opportunity to make money then the sp's will rise considerably.

As these conditions have never been seen before it really is a bit of a guessing game as to what is going to happen next!

17/10/2008 - British car retailer Inchcape Plc said on Friday a recent sharp downturn in its home market meant 2008 profit would be below the consensus of market forecasts while next year its profit will be significantly below previous expectations.

'With the events in financial markets across the world in recent weeks consumer confidence has reduced substantially. As a consequence trading conditions have deteriorated significantly in the UK and are weakening in a number of our other markets,' Inchcape said in a statement.

If you look back at the graphs on this thread, when the price hits bottom it tends to stay there. The easy moneys gone, it won't be back anytime soon, that's why I see an equities wasteland for several years. It's happened in the past, just nobody remembers it, we're all too caught up in support, resistance, bounces and bottom picking..... There'll be a few choice survivors of course, problem is picking them!

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Expectations for the remainder of 2008 for UK Coal

While output in the third quarter, and in particular in September, was reduced in part by non-recurring events, poor geology has continued to affect output at Kellingley and Thoresby. As a consequence, we believe that full year sales will total around 8 million tonnes, compared to earlier expectations of around 8.7 million tonnes (2007: 7.8m tonnes, excluding Maltby). We expect full year Deep Mine sales will be no more than 6.2 million tonnes and Surface Mines will realise circa 1.8 million tonnes.

In revenue terms for the full year, until recently we expected that part of this output shortfall would have been offset by higher than expected realised average sales prices. However, following the recent fall in the market price of coal we now expect an average fourth quarter sales price of 1.85 to 1.90 /GJ, taking fixed price contracts into account, making the average out-turn for the full year within our previously announced range of 1.90 to 1.95/GJ, rather than higher than this range as it might have been.

The world coal price has recently dropped from over $190 per tonne at the end of August for H2 2008 deliveries to $129 per tonne as of 14 October 2008 for Q4 2008 deliveries. At an exchange rate of circa 1:$1.75, this converts into a current UK market price of around 3/GJ. Compared to previous years, and indeed to the start of 2008 when the world coal price was around $118/tonne or 2.35/GJ at 1:$2, this remains a very high market price. However, very significant amounts of our deliveries are still contracted at prices historically fixed well below this level. The volume of these older contracts is set to fall sharply after next year.

It is disappointing that the geological conditions at Kellingley and Thoresby are likely to keep run-rate of production at these mines lower than we have previously expected until they can access their new seams towards the end of next year. This, and the recent drop in market price of coal from its record levels earlier this year, has a direct impact

You say look back at the charts here, but they are all tied up with the credit crunch. In 2003, the low was reached the day before the Iraqi war and then there was a considerable bounce. Different conditions now, granted but when this bear market ends and assuming we don't go into a depreesion (which I think is possible) as banks start lending again I feel confidence may return very quickly and initially at least there will be a large bounce even if we then tread water for a year or so.

When all this will be of course is anyone's guess. Next week, month, year ..

IMO

Last time we had very low interest rates and massive (worldwide) government spending, in response to 9/11 amongst other things. We also had China taking off, which meant lots of cheap goods and massive amounts of spare cash (to invest). Unemployment was falling and governments were spending heavily on infrastructure (NHS etc.) and the military. This time we have the world slowing down, massive personal debt, massive government debt, huge losses in asset prices (houses, equities etc.) and potentially significant job losses to come. Not the sort of market for spare cash invested in equites.

Give it two or three years for the worst of it to play out and things will start to recover. I'l be looking to drip feed small amounts of money into the markets from around 2010 onwards.

People have lost the art of patience. They want massive gains in days, weeks or months. In volatile markets gains can be made and lost in hours...

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

The situation you describe is like a coiled spring but as you release it, it can have a dramatic effect. If we believe the stories then there is an incredible amount of money sitting on the sidelines worldwide ready to invest.

I look at the FTSE 10 year chart statistically. It is so dramatic that it is impossible to say where the next move may be say over the next year or so but I still feel a large bounce is very possible. At the end of the day, unless the miners are going bankrupt, then by falling 20%/day, they are going to hit their bottom very quickly. I still believe in their growth story on amedium to long term view.

ps If you want to take a look at RXP chart it gives a good indication of what can happen. Last week it was 2p and oversold. It has just gone to 6.38p.

You might be right, you might be wrong. I'll wait for now. My instincts have been pretty good so I'll stick with them, and maybe in hindsight I suppose I should've backed them more on the short side. Ho hum. No point in being greedy though... :-)

Strawbs.

That's what frightens me Strawbs.

My instincts have so far been wrong!